QB Hints

  • To unlock all of features of Rams On Demand please take a brief moment to register. Registering is not only quick and easy, it also allows you access to additional features such as live chat, private messaging, and a host of other apps exclusive to Rams On Demand.
RamFan503

RamFan503

Grill and Brew Master
Moderator
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Messages
35,769
Name
Stu
DzRams said:
Do we have any examples of mental processing significantly improving after a few years of development? There are so few QBs allowed to develop now that the data set is so small.

You both raise good points on how to obtain Stafford's replacement. As Snead said, it's not gonna be easy no matter what path is taken.

I wouldn't force a QB pick in a bad draft though just because the need is acute. The pertinent question I'm still asking is "is there any skillset where he will become a franchise-caliber QB after a year or two of development." I'm not seeing any that I'd say that on.

Rather than forcing a pick in a bad draft, I recommend the Rams wait until a strong QB draft and then take the Chiefs 2017 path (or even the Ram's 2016 path) to finding their future franchise QB. The Julio Jones trade is another case in point. With the Julio Jones and Mahomes trades, teams moved from the bottom of the 1st round to #6 and #10 respectively.

I'd rather make a major move in a good QB draft than throw some darts in a bad QB draft.
Click to expand...
I don’t think anyone on this board has studied the QB class enough to really know as much about the mental acuity of any of the prospects - certainly not as much as the Rams. I’m sure they’ve looked at all kinds of criteria we simply have no ability or resources to look into.

There may very well be a QB or two they see as investment worthy. It’s entirely possible they see an opportunity at 26 that they feel won’t be there next year or that the cost next year would be too much for minimal gain.

I’m not going to be presumptive in saying it would be a mistake to take a QB in this draft or even high in this draft. I’m sure they’ve looked and thought through every scenario any of us could come up with. I’m sure they’ve considered next year’s draft. I’m sure they’ve compared how a player might help them this year vs a QB in ‘27.

And though we all know the Rams organization is not infallible, I’m putting my faith behind them rather than people who have watched some highlight film and read a bunch of draft reviews.

Whatever the Rams do will have been very heavily researched and vetted - even if it ends up being the wrong decision.

I suppose I’d just caution anyone not to get too invested in what they feel should be done. Opinions are great and what a board is made of for the most part. I just hate seeing people actually get argumentative over it to the point that they dismiss other’s opinions.

Mind you. I’m not aware of you doing this @DzRams. I just see it happen too often.
 
Ramstien

Ramstien

Hall of Fame
Joined
Oct 15, 2016
Messages
2,687
Name
Ramstien
I don't think you will see the Rams use one of their first four picks on a QB this year, they are all in for a Superbowl run and early picks will be used at CB, TE, ILBer, and double dip at CB.
 
dieterbrock

dieterbrock

Rams On Demand Sponsor
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
25,616
What is considered a good QB draft anyway? Or for that matter, a bad QB draft?
2024- too soon to tell but Daniels appears to be a stud
2023? you got CJ Stroud and a lot of meh
2022? Mr Irrelevant
2021? Jury still out on Trevor Lawrence and a whole bunch of meh
2020? Now we're talking. Burrow is a beast but the most successful QB from the draft was the 5th one taken
First QB taken is rarely the best of his class and like we just saw in Philly, doesnt guarantee success either
 
rdlkgliders

rdlkgliders

"AKA" Hugo Bezdek
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Jul 1, 2013
Messages
8,558
Name
Don
I was asking Elm his thoughts and brought up 2007 a much maligned year for QB's many think it was the worst of the past 25 years.
IMO 2018 was darn good
Round 1: Baker Mayfield (No. 1), Sam Darnold (No. 3), Josh Allen* (No. 7), Josh Rosen (No. 10), Lamar Jackson* (No. 32)
Round 3: Mason Rudolph (No. 76)
Round 4: Kyle Lauletta (No. 108)
Round 5: Mike White (No. 171)
Round 6: Luke Falk (No. 199), Tanner Lee (No. 203)
Round 7: Danny Etling (No. 219), Alex McGough (No. 220), Logan Woodside (No. 249)
Notable undrafted: Kyle Allen

2020 was very good
Round 1: Joe Burrow* (No. 1), Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5), Justin Herbert* (No. 6), Jordan Love (No. 26)
Round 3: Jalen Hurts* (No. 53)
Round 4: Jacob Eason (No. 122), James Morgan (No. 125)
Round 5: Jake Fromm (No. 167)
Round 6: Jake Luton (No. 189)
Round 7: Cole McDonald (No. 224), Ben DiNucci (No. 231), Tommy Stevens (No. 240), Nate Stanley (No. 244)

2004 brought a few SuperBowls
Round 1: Eli Manning* (No. 1), Philip Rivers* (No. 4), Ben Roethlisberger* (No. 11), J.P. Losman (No. 22)
Round 3: Matt Schaub* (No. 90)
Round 4: Luke McCown (No. 106)
Round 5: Craig Krenzel (No. 148)
Round 6: Andy Hall (No. 185), Josh Harris (No. 187), Jim Sorgi (No. 193), Jeff Smoker (No. 201)
Round 7: John Navarre (No. 202), Cody Pickett (No. 217), Casey Bramlet (No. 218), Matt Mauck (No. 225), B.J. Symons (No. 248), Bradlee Van Pelt (No. 250)

I think Mahomes and Brady tilt the scale in their respective years but overall the above are examples of very good and 07 god awful
 
WestCoastRam

WestCoastRam

Legend
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Messages
7,221
dieterbrock said:
What is considered a good QB draft anyway? Or for that matter, a bad QB draft?
2024- too soon to tell but Daniels appears to be a stud
2023? you got CJ Stroud and a lot of meh
2022? Mr Irrelevant
2021? Jury still out on Trevor Lawrence and a whole bunch of meh
2020? Now we're talking. Burrow is a beast but the most successful QB from the draft was the 5th one taken
First QB taken is rarely the best of his class and like we just saw in Philly, doesnt guarantee success either
Click to expand...
FWIW, I think it's easy to be excited and amazed at what Drake Maye was able to do with no offensive line and no receivers. Like amazing.
 

DzRams

Pro Bowler
Joined
Mar 12, 2024
Messages
1,607
Name
Desmal M
dieterbrock

dieterbrock

Rams On Demand Sponsor
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
25,616

DzRams

Pro Bowler
Joined
Mar 12, 2024
Messages
1,607
Name
Desmal M
dieterbrock said:
What is considered a good QB draft anyway? Or for that matter, a bad QB draft?
2024- too soon to tell but Daniels appears to be a stud
2023? you got CJ Stroud and a lot of meh
2022? Mr Irrelevant
2021? Jury still out on Trevor Lawrence and a whole bunch of meh
2020? Now we're talking. Burrow is a beast but the most successful QB from the draft was the 5th one taken
First QB taken is rarely the best of his class and like we just saw in Philly, doesnt guarantee success either
Click to expand...
Here's a list of noteworthy names for the last 10 years of QBs.

2015 - Winston, Mariotta - Only 2 QBs in the 1st round. No long-term starters from this class.
2016 - Goff, Wentz, Prescott (135). Two long-term starters from this class.
2017 - Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson. Two long-term starters from this class, both 1st round picks.
2018 - Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson. Four long-term starters from this class, all 1st round picks.
2019 - Murray, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock (42), Gardner Minshew II (178). One long-term starter. Minshew is a maybe on that...
2020 - Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts (53). Five long-term starters, all but one 1st round picks.
2021 - Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Mac Jones. One long-term starter and the jury still out on Fields.
2022 - Pickett....Purdy (262). Purdy saved this class from worst ever. Only one 1st round pick, one long-term starter.
2023 - Young, Stroud, Richardson, Levis (33), O'Connell (135). Jury is still out on number of long-term starters. O'Connell is being replaced. It's unclear what the Titans will do with Levis. The likely long-term guys will be Stroud and maybe Young.
2024 - Williams, Daniels, Maye, Penix, McCarthey, Nix. Too soon to say but several look good right now.

Just eyeballing it, the first QB taken is best in class about 40-50% of the time.

What's more clear is that there is an 80% chance that you need to use a 1st round pick to get a franchise-caliber QB. Out of the 18 or so long-term starters I've counted up to 2023, about 3-4 were drafted outside of the 1st round.

What's more noteworthy is that for all of these non-1st QBs (Prescott, Minshew, Hurts, and Purdy), they showed early, typically in the first year, that they could be starters. Besides these four, there are many QBs drafted in the 2nd round and later that have had plenty of time to develop but none have risen to being a starter in the last 10 years.

My takeaway is, the Rams should assess whether there is real 1st round talent. If there is, get the guy at 26 or trade up. If there isn't, don't waste a dart throw hoping for someone to develop. Your mileage may vary.
 
dieterbrock

dieterbrock

Rams On Demand Sponsor
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Jan 3, 2013
Messages
25,616
DzRams said:
Out of the 18 or so long-term starters I've counted up to 2023, about 3-4 were drafted outside of the 1st round.
Click to expand...
Not really sure what you are implying other than its a crapshoot.
6 of the 18 long term guys werent day 1 starters, Lamar and Tua came in about mid way, while 4 or 5 of the long term guys arent even with the team who drafted him.
In any event, outside of Cam Ward, I dont think there is a guy in the draft who'd be a game 1 starter. Which is fine because they dont need that, but have a system in place like KC had where they can afford to groom a QB. Im more confident in the Rams coaching to get a guy ready to play more than a college coach
 

DzRams

Pro Bowler
Joined
Mar 12, 2024
Messages
1,607
Name
Desmal M
dieterbrock said:
Not really sure what you are implying other than its a crapshoot.
6 of the 18 long term guys werent day 1 starters, Lamar and Tua came in about mid way, while 4 or 5 of the long term guys arent even with the team who drafted him.
In any event, outside of Cam Ward, I dont think there is a guy in the draft who'd be a game 1 starter. Which is fine because they dont need that, but have a system in place like KC had where they can afford to groom a QB. Im more confident in the Rams coaching to get a guy ready to play more than a college coach
Click to expand...
It's a crapshoot for sure. But I'm not implying anything. I'm expressly stating that, based on the last 10-year history, there is only a 15-20% chance that a non-first round QB that we try to develop will ever turn into a long-term starter.

You're right that several weren't day 1 starters but nearly all did start in year 1.

So I'm kind of with you....I'm confident that the Rams coaching can get a guy ready to play with the added caveat that he needs to be a 1st round talent.
 
RamFan503

RamFan503

Grill and Brew Master
Moderator
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Messages
35,769
Name
Stu
WestCoastRam

WestCoastRam

Legend
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Messages
7,221
DzRams said:
Well, he's not the only one saying that. I thought your posts on Dart last week and how front offices grade him were interesting.
Click to expand...
And yet... the draft is dynamic, QB inflation is a thing, I would be shocked if Dart went in the first... but not surprised.

Seems to be some smoke that if the Giants don't get Rodgers they'll draft Sanders just to try to save their jobs. Dynamic reason for drafting him that has nothing to do with his projection and value.
 
WestCoastRam

WestCoastRam

Legend
Joined
Nov 17, 2014
Messages
7,221
hmm... would the Steelers take Milroe in the 2nd round if they got Kordell Stewart's career out of him?
 
Merlin

Merlin

Damn the torpedoes
Rams On Demand Sponsor
ROD Credit | 2023 TOP Member
Joined
May 8, 2014
Messages
41,989
dieterbrock said:
What's he smoking though? Was only 3 years ago that Kenny Picket was the only QB taken in round 1
Click to expand...
Yeah this class has some intriguing projects. If no QBs or only one go off, that means the Rams are nicely positioned to take the one they prefer. The 5th year option is greatly empowered now for project types who have starter talent. So where they are at 26 is a bit of a wheelhouse in that regard.

And if they take it later that is fine too. These guys are all dice rolls. The loaded rolls just go off at the top.
 
El Chapo Jr

El Chapo Jr

Legend
Joined
Feb 10, 2021
Messages
6,317
OldSchool said:
Don't think we trade up but the more I think about it the more I think Dart is the pick if he's there at 26.
Click to expand...
I just don't see it. Forcing a QB pick there would be terrible in this class. Much better players to pick there. We'll see though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom