Comparative data for 2016 and 2017:
The scoring system was altered slightly in 2017. In 2016 you got half points for a tie so if the option was
Seahawks 20 or Cardinals 17 and it ended in a tie you got 10 for the Seahawks and 8.5 for the Cardinals. That made scoring percentages messy. Obviously it shouldn't be 100% or 85%. For 2017 you only got the differences between the tied scores so you would have scored 1.5 for the Seahawks and 0 for the Cardinals. There were 2 ties in 2016. Under 2017 rules the 2016 alternative leaderboard was this:
In 2017 the alternative leaderboard looked like this:
The maximum score in 2016 was 3902 which is effectively 2 X half-a-game lower than it should be because of the ties. On that basis the top scores are also 1 X half-a-game lower than they should be, (or .5496 X half-a-game lower if you want to go by season long scores).
The maximum score in 2017 was a much lower 3781, which is about half a point per game less than 2016. The scoring difference between a 4.5 point favourite and a 4.5 point underdog is 9 point in this game. You could either view 2017 as having about 14 fewer 4.5 point underdogs beating their 4.5 point favourites over the course of the 238 NFL games this pick'em covered or you could see it as there being more one-sided games/fewer very even games in 2017. Either way picking favourites in 2017 was a better strategy than in 2016.
The striking difference is the % change in the ROD Bookie scores. There are possibly 2 reasons for this. Firstly I did the opening Sportsbooks later this year - Friday and sometimes Saturday morning rather than Thursday nights. That would have highlighted the errors in the early ESPN line a bit more. Secondly I believe there were more errors in the ESPN lines this year. The Rams were an underdog in Week 1 because the line went up before Luck was confirmed to be out. In Week 17 the Rams started as 3.5 point favourites but started the game 6.5 point underdogs because of the starters being pulled. there were several other errors which made 2017 scoring a bit easier than 2016. Combined with improved performances by favourites, (which has generally resulted in better scoring by members) the scoring definitely improved in 2017.
I have 2015 and 2014 data if anyone wants it. Data in those years included the 18 Thursday games.
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I found this article....
