The Derek Carr Situation Could be Interesting UPDATE: Signs w/Saints

[OldSchool]

There definitely is, I hadnt thought that through. Mostly because it doesnt matter, they will cut him because nobody will trade for that contract. As dumb as the Raiders are, even they cant mess this one up. lol

Honestly they're dumb if they don't trade him and there are always teams desperate for a QB. Look at what Indy has given up for QB's the last couple of years. Titans, Commodes, Jets, Colts, potentially the entire NFC South, Arizona (what do they do with Kyler out for a while), Seattle with Geno signed for just this year.

I'm pretty sure we've seen enough bad QB trades in recent NFL times to say nobody will trade for a QB. Sam Bradford to Philly and Minny ring a bell?

 

[Steve808]

The Derek Carr situation may turn-out to be fun to follow and discuss. And there’s a lot to consider.

Seems pretty clear that Las Vegas wants to move-on, but How?

The Raiders could simply release Carr and get big cap savings ($29M) with relatively little Dead-$ ($5.6M). Then the discussion is how attractive a free agent the 32-year-old Carr would be?

Already seen some posts that have little regard for Derek Carr. I don’t agree.

I think Carr would be very attractive to a number of teams. There are a bunch of teams that may believe they are a QB-upgrade away from being really good; and Carr could represent such an upgrade to some of them.

That would take us into a discussion of how good a quarterback is David Carr … borderline-top-10 … top-16 (half the League) … no better than top-20. There are stats to analyze, who Carr has played for/with, lack of playoff experience (one game) and age to consider.

I don’t know that the Raiders would simply release him. A number of teams may be willing to offer a trade, with the hope / expectation that they can redo his contract to give Carr more guaranteed money but reduce his cap hit for the next couple seasons. Then the discussion is what type of compensation would Las Vegas get back. Teams have given up a ton in recent off-seasons for veteran QBs, with very mixed results.

How about this as a topic for discussion. Several teams may want to trade for Carr but only under the condition that they first get to negotiate a new contract for cap relief and security. The Raiders could be OK with that but Carr might say ‘No’. Carr could try to scare-off teams seeking a trade by refusing to negotiate with one team, in hope that the Raiders would release him; and then Carr could negotiate as a free agent with any team.

Could even have another Deshaun Watson situation where the Raiders work-out a trade with multiple teams, then turn to Carr and say negotiate a new contract that you like and we will trade you to that team.

My whole point is that things could be simple and straight-forward, or complicated and drag-out.

As Rams fans, we will be so focused on what our team does this off-season … and that will come with some stress and anxiety. It may be enjoyable to follow, discuss and debate a significant player move that may not impact the Rams … unless Derek Carr goes to San Francisco!

Joe Montana and Brady could have been drafted by the Cleveland Browns and both might have been busts instead if hall of famers.

 

[So Ram]

Joe Montana and Brady could have been drafted by the Cleveland Browns and both might have been busts instead if hall of famers.

I don’t about you,but Isaw both players talent in college.I remember Montana touch the wall coming up from the steps for his last home game.
Brady beating BAMA in like over time to win a bowl game. Carr being his HC at Michigan believed in him & gave him his chance. I really liked him & had a wager on that game.I keep thinking it was first weekend of December championship game though which I don’t think the Big Ten has back then? & BAMA is in the SEC.
That Drew H played 3rd base for the Yankees.?

Drew Henson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[CGI_Ram]

Reading this article… It is going to be a CRAZY offseason at QB around the league.

What's next for Derek Carr? - ProFootballTalk

The benching of Raiders quarterback Derek Carr becomes a clear and obvious indication that the team is done with him. During Thursday’s PFT Live, we addressed the difficulties inherent to trading Carr.In a nutshell, the Raiders can’t trade him before $40.4 million in injury guarantees flip to...

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

What’s next for Derek Carr?​

Here’s a broad-as-possible list of the teams that possibly would consider him.

Commodes: They’re perpetually looking for solutions at quarterback, and former Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is on the staff there (at least for now) as defensive coordinator.

Jets: Mike White is due to be a free agent, and Zach Wilson is reportedly done. Carr could be an upgrade over the other options.

Patriots: If they’re done with Mac Jones (or if Jones is done with them), could they find a way to coach up Carr? It would be an intriguing wrinkle, given that former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels decided after one year that Carr isn’t the answer.

Dolphins: What will they do about Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering the final year of his contract? A decision is due on his fifth-year optioning May 2023. A bigger decision could be made about whether to keep a quarterback who has become a perpetual risk for his next concussion.

Ravens: Carr, in theory, becomes an option, in the event they trade Lamar Jackson. But they’d have to retool their offense much more by pivoting to Carr than if they’d simply shift to Tyler Huntley.

Titans: All options ultimately could be on the table at quarterback in Nashville, depending on how the current season ends.

Texans: They’ll be looking for a quarterback, and most presume they’d draft one. It would be fitting to have the brother of David Carr come to Houston and thrive.

Colts: After Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, the Colts would prefer to exit the revolving door of veteran quarterbacks. Carr could be better than any of the others they’ve added.

Giants: David Carr won a Super Bowl with the Giants, albeit as a backup. Many assume they’ll keep Daniel Jones. Is Derek Carr a better overall player? That’s something for the front office and coaching staff to decide.

Lions: The assumption has gone from Jared Goff out to Jared Goff in for 2023. That was before Derek Carr became available.

All of the NFC South: Every team in the worst division in football has no clear, established quarterback. Every one of them could (should) evaluate Carr.

Seahawks: Geno Smith and Drew Lock are both set to be free agents. If nothing else, Carr could provide a little leverage to get Geno to have more reasonable contractual expectations.

Rams: Yes, the Rams. Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl last year. But he’ll be 35 in February. And it’s an old 35. He’s had more than a few injuries, and we possibly only know about some of them. He also has $57 million in compensation that becomes fully guaranteed in March 2023. Given the cap hit from last year’s extension, however, the Rams may have no choice but to bite the bullet on their second consecutive regrettable quarterback contract.

 

[dieterbrock]

Honestly they're dumb if they don't trade him and there are always teams desperate for a QB. Look at what Indy has given up for QB's the last couple of years. Titans, Commodes, Jets, Colts, potentially the entire NFC South, Arizona (what do they do with Kyler out for a while), Seattle with Geno signed for just this year.

I'm pretty sure we've seen enough bad QB trades in recent NFL times to say nobody will trade for a QB. Sam Bradford to Philly and Minny ring a bell?

Understood, but those trades were made where the team trading was taking a dead cap hit, while the team getting the player was getting the "reduced" salary. That isnt the case with Carr. Carr comes with a 34 mill salary in 2023 and a 42 mill number in '24. That's franchise money for a 33 year old guy who may or may not work out. And while teams have taken fliers on QB's like you mentioned, they come at a price around 1/3rd to tops 1/2 of what Carr will make.
To make matters worse, with his no trade clause, I'd imagine he'd want (at the very least) the next 2 years guaranteed. No thanks....
Raiders walk away with minimal dead cap (5.6 mill) whether traded or released
Sure, I imagine they'll wait on it, see what's what. But once they have to start kicking in $$ to make it work, it wont be worth it
Hey just my .02 which is about as worthless as a weather report

 

[OldSchool]

Understood, but those trades were made where the team trading was taking a dead cap hit, while the team getting the player was getting the "reduced" salary. That isnt the case with Carr. Carr comes with a 34 mill salary in 2023 and a 42 mill number in '24. That's franchise money for a 33 year old guy who may or may not work out. And while teams have taken fliers on QB's like you mentioned, they come at a price around 1/3rd to tops 1/2 of what Carr will make.
To make matters worse, with his no trade clause, I'd imagine he'd want (at the very least) the next 2 years guaranteed. No thanks....
Raiders walk away with minimal dead cap (5.6 mill) whether traded or released
Sure, I imagine they'll wait on it, see what's what. But once they have to start kicking in $$ to make it work, it wont be worth it
Hey just my .02 which is about as worthless as a weather report

And my .02 is we see enough idiotic trades, free agent signings and head coach hirings/firings to know better than to say something will never happen. Derek Carr isn't nearly as bad as he's being portrayed, not saying he's great, but worse QB's have been traded recently. And the fact that they wouldn't take a huge cap hit when trading for him. It's realistically a one year deal for $33 million, potentially another $7.5 million guaranteed for '24. What team thinking their a QB away wouldn't throw out a one year flyer on a QB for one year at that cap hit.

 

[Allen2McVay]

Wouldn't a team looking to acquire Carr via trade seek a new contract with him?

With signing bonus and guaranteed-$, it would benefit Carr; and the team would reduced the cap-hit.

 

[CGI_Ram]

And my .02 is we see enough idiotic trades, free agent signings and head coach hirings/firings to know better than to say something will never happen. Derek Carr isn't nearly as bad as he's being portrayed, not saying he's great, but worse QB's have been traded recently. And the fact that they wouldn't take a huge cap hit when trading for him. It's realistically a one year deal for $33 million, potentially another $7.5 million guaranteed for '24. What team thinking their a QB away wouldn't throw out a one year flyer on a QB for one year at that cap hit.

Wouldn't a team looking to acquire Carr via trade seek a new contract with him?

With signing bonus and guaranteed-$, it would benefit Carr; and the team would reduced the cap-hit.

If you trade for him, aren’t you on the hook for the duration of his current deal? There are $40M salaries in there.

The Raiders have an “out” if they cut him.

Otherwise, the trading team assumes the next 3yrs?

Am I seeing this wrong?

 

[OldSchool]

If you trade for him, aren’t you on the hook for the duration of his current deal? There are $40M salaries in there.

The Raiders have an “out” if they cut him.

Otherwise, the trading team assumes the next 3yrs?

Am I seeing this wrong?

View attachment 58117

Only 2023 and potentially part of 2024 are guaranteed is my point.

 

[Allen2McVay]

If you trade for him, aren’t you on the hook for the duration of his current deal? There are $40M salaries in there.

...

Yes but contracts can be re-worked. I don't think there's much guaranteed-$ left on Carr's current deal.

These are just simple numbers for easy math to illustrate.
Team acquires Carr in a trade and inherits the contract but a new deal is offered.
4 years / $160M / $80M guaranteed / $40M signing bonus / $5M 2023 salary.

Carr gets $45M in 2023 ... more than he would make under the current contract
Carr gets $80M in guaranteed-$ ... has almost no guaranteed-$ on the current contract (I believe)
So it works for Derek Carr.

The Team's 2023 cap hit is a low $15M ($5M salary plus $10M of the pro-rated bonus).
Works in the short-term for the Team. Of course, there is a long-term commitment and cost.

Now, I have been known to miss things ... so feel free to straighten me out.

 

[Kupped]

Read and heard a bunch on Carr over last couple of days.. teams will try to trade for him, there's just too much demand for QBs out there.
His contract is one you can live with, as is.. or renegotiate, possibly.

As for the no-trade contract clause.. Carr may not want to overplay it.. because the Raiders could just do what the 9ers did with Jimmy G. That actually worked out for him.. but Carr has to consider what could come of that.

Commodores is my pick.. but, damn.. I hadn't even considered the Dolphins.

 

[dieterbrock]

If you trade for him, aren’t you on the hook for the duration of his current deal? There are $40M salaries in there.

The Raiders have an “out” if they cut him.

Otherwise, the trading team assumes the next 3yrs?

Am I seeing this wrong?

That's exactly it. And the Raiders only take a 5 mill hit whether he's released or traded. Now Carr also has the no trade clause, which means he can control what terms he'd accept in order to agree to a trade. Likely would look for guaranteed money. If there's a demand for Carr, he'd likely be better off getting cut and then signing the best deal he can find.

 

[dieterbrock]

Yes but contracts can be re-worked. I don't think there's much guaranteed-$ left on Carr's current deal.

These are just simple numbers for easy math to illustrate.
Team acquires Carr in a trade and inherits the contract but a new deal is offered.
4 years / $160M / $80M guaranteed / $40M signing bonus / $5M 2023 salary.

Carr gets $45M in 2023 ... more than he would make under the current contract
Carr gets $80M in guaranteed-$ ... has almost no guaranteed-$ on the current contract (I believe)
So it works for Derek Carr.

The Team's 2023 cap hit is a low $15M ($5M salary plus $10M of the pro-rated bonus).
Works in the short-term for the Team. Of course, there is a long-term commitment and cost.

Now, I have been known to miss things ... so feel free to straighten me out.

He's got 40 mill guaranteed
33 mill in 2023 and 7.5 of 2024
Re-working his deal means committing a lot more $$ to him.
He's a serviceable guy, but nowhere near a franchise guy you build around. And there will be some QB's out there for a lot less $$ who are comparable players. Mayfield, Garoppolo, Wentz, Darnold, possibly Tannehill and maybe even Goff. And plenty of "bridge" vets as well. Mariota, Dalton, Brissett , Minshew etc
I got pounced on for suggesting Mayfield could get 10-15 mill per, if Carr is worth 33-40 mill, then Baker should be double what I thought.....

 

[Allen2McVay]

He's got 40 mill guaranteed
33 mill in 2023 and 7.5 of 2024
…

Not doubting just wondering.

If his 2023 is guaranteed, why is the Dead-$ on Spotrac and Over-the-Cap so low?

 

[Kupped]

He's got 40 mill guaranteed
33 mill in 2023 and 7.5 of 2024
Re-working his deal means committing a lot more $$ to him.
He's a serviceable guy, but nowhere near a franchise guy you build around. And there will be some QB's out there for a lot less $$ who are comparable players. Mayfield, Garoppolo, Wentz, Darnold, possibly Tannehill and maybe even Goff. And plenty of "bridge" vets as well. Mariota, Dalton, Brissett , Minshew etc
I got pounced on for suggesting Mayfield could get 10-15 mill per, if Carr is worth 33-40 mill, then Baker should be double what I thought.....

It's not that much money for a starting QB, especially with the cap going up.

He's a competent guy who's only 31. In 21, he threw for 4800 yards.

I'm not a "Carr fan", but when I look at the league and trades for guys like Ryan and Wentz in recent years, I have no doubt someone will try to trade for him.. at least a second and another pick.. but we'll see how it works out.

He's got better track record, including health, than just about everyone on that list.

He's what.. the 16th best QB in the NFL? A slight overpay on the current contract, but one you can live with for a couple of seasons, for sure, if you're a team like the Colts.. Washington.. who've had QB chaos for the last few years.

 

[dieterbrock]

Not doubting just wondering.

If his 2023 is guaranteed, why is the Dead-$ on Spotrac and Over-the-Cap so low?

It becomes guaranteed on 2/15/2023 when the league year begins, so if the Raiders cut/trade him prior they arent on the hook. If a team trades for him they automatically are on the hook

 

[dieterbrock]

It's not that much money for a starting QB, especially with the cap going up.

I'll just re-post what I already said, He's a serviceable guy, but nowhere near a franchise guy you build around. And there will be some QB's out there for a lot less $$ who are comparable players. Mayfield, Garoppolo, Wentz, Darnold, possibly Tannehill and maybe even Goff. And plenty of "bridge" vets as well. Mariota, Dalton, Brissett , Minshew etc
Carr for 2023 currently is the 7th highest paid QB, and yet he's top 20 at best

 

[Kupped]

I'll just re-post what I already said, He's a serviceable guy, but nowhere near a franchise guy you build around. And there will be some QB's out there for a lot less $$ who are comparable players. Mayfield, Garoppolo, Wentz, Darnold, possibly Tannehill and maybe even Goff. And plenty of "bridge" vets as well. Mariota, Dalton, Brissett , Minshew etc
Carr for 2023 currently is the 7th highest paid QB, and yet he's top 20 at best

I read it. That’s your take, I understand.

Carr’s having a down year, for lots of reasons.

The best guys on your list won’t be available, or will be free agents. There are a number of teams in fire need of a competent, healthy QB. If Washington had Carr this year, they’d be in the playoffs, for sure, Same with Jets.

I think the money isn’t as big a hurdle as you suggest.

No one on that list has Carr’s track record of performance and health.

 

[Merlin]

That's exactly it. And the Raiders only take a 5 mill hit whether he's released or traded. Now Carr also has the no trade clause, which means he can control what terms he'd accept in order to agree to a trade. Likely would look for guaranteed money. If there's a demand for Carr, he'd likely be better off getting cut and then signing the best deal he can find.

That clause means he can force the Raiders hands if he wants. Why not tell the team you aren't going to consider any trade they suggest. That ensures the cut will come.

If I'm him there's no way I'd let the team who is casting me aside benefit if it's in my power to prevent that.

 

[RamFan503]

Joe Montana and Brady could have been drafted by the Cleveland Browns and both might have been busts instead if hall of famers.