Covid 19 thread

[EastRam]

It is 100% impossible for me to do my job while wearing those.
We tried. Can't be done. But, we're essential, so we're told to wear surgical masks.
Hospitals pass them out as their mitigating method upon entry. They don't pass out KN95's.

I feel for what your saying about doing your job with a KN95 mask.

I wear the KN95 with a face shield. I do manual labor as well with no AC in our area and it’s a pain in the ass.

We have to break about every 1.5 hours to go outside.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

Back in February/March they thought that the virus was spreading via airborne particles, which a mask wouldn't really do all that much to stop. Understanding the public, while the mask would have still helped, the worry was that people would panic buy and take all the supply, leaving the medical field without the PPE they need.

We have since both built up our supply of PPE, and gained a better understanding of how the virus transmits. They now know that the virus doesn't transmit via airborne particles, but via spit droplets when people talk. You know the saying, say it don't spray it? That's basically what the issue is. A mask happens to do a great job with stopping spit.

In other words, if you put on a mask, and light a scented candle, you can still smell the candle. The mask doesn't stop those particles from going through, so if the virus traveled that way, you can see how it wouldn't do anything for you. With the mask on try to blow that candle out, and you can't do it unless you get much closer than you'd normally have to get. That's why the promotion of masks and social distancing, both of them individually are great at making the virus much harder to spread, and together they make it almost impossible.

Yeah, you sort of left out the detailed reasoning given back in March why mask wearing was futile, in fact the one thing here I hope most of us can agree on is the overwhelmingly number one way to contract this virus has always been hands to face/mouth, which one must do every time one puts one on.

Of course it wouldn’t be the first time false information was passed out as medical fact

 

[EastRam]

The messing was F up which has created a lot of this mistrust in the messaging now.

Personally I’ve been wearing a mask since January. The information was out there then. Just had to look for it.

Imho the messaging got confusing due to Politics.

 

[-X-]

I feel for what your saying about doing your job with a KN95 mask.

I wear the KN95 with a face shield. I do manual labor as well with no AC in our area and it’s a pain in the ass.

We have to break about every 1.5 hours to go outside.

Yeah, we had a guy pass out from wearing one early on. He and another dude were installing a hydraulic cylinder (22,000 lbs) in an elevator shaft at a hospital and he was just pumping his own CO2 back into his face for so long, he just fell out. Could have been deadly if he was up in the top of the shaft instead of the bottom. It was pretty scary. Other guys just started twisting the elastic on the side like a pretzel and then put them around their ears so as to open up "gills" on the sides of the mask. Might as well not wear one, or just go to the surgical ones if you're gonna open up huge airways like that, so that's what we did.

Two weeks ago me and another dude were pushing around 500lb carts (total of 5500 lbs) of weight to do full-load safety tests on elevators at a hospital in SC. Even with just surgical masks on, it became a little too much to deal with. And we have people out here trying to debunk the OSHA O2 meter experiment people are performing on masks like most of us don't actually deal with it in real life and KNOW it's a real thing. I don't understand it.

 

[1maGoh]

Mathematical probabilities, it’s actually higher than people would think.

It’s similar to the birthday paradox.

23 random people in a room and you have a 50/50 shot two people have the exact same birthday.

365 potential days, it only takes 23 people.

75 people in a room and those odds are at 99.9%.

Which seems nuts right? Hence the paradox.

Except it’s only a paradox because our stupid human brains have problems with understanding the concept of compounding exponents.

Luckily we can do the math. I’ll go with the birthday paradox because it’s easy and I know that one already.

23 students means we have a potential of 253 pairs.

22x23/2=253

So how does that translate to 50/50 odds?

First, flip it, what are the odds that you’re going to miss?

Well when you compare one to one, they have a potential to “hit” 1, or miss 364 times. You either hit and have the same birthday, but if your birthday is one of the other 364 days you miss.

So it’s easy to see how you have very low odds there.
364/365 = .997, so yeah, very low odds to hit. Literally 99% chance you’re not going to match.

But it’s not one to one. We have 253 potential pairs.

(364/365)^253 = .499.... Or, 50/50 shot you’ll miss.

Higher the number of potential pairs, the lower that number is, meaning the greater the odds.

Translating that to the Covid thing, it’s basically the same type of situation. So many numbers have been reported around the world by so many groups, you’re more likely to find a hit than to not find a hit. Especially if you’re selecting at random.

I thought your math on the number of pairs was wrong for a second there, so I looked up the formula for the number of cables required for a full mesh network. Then I realized you were right and thought "Right. That's why we don't do full mesh networks in the real world."

 

[SWAdude]

hey @quarantine i was wanting to ask you, I have to be in Santa Barbara on the 25th but am sketchy about flying in an airplane period, but how are things right now with all this stuff going on?
I mean what is the vibe and what are the protocols involved that you see happening?
What is your advice for me if you don’t mind me asking
Thanks in advance brother

Anytime!

Every airline has its own thing with seating. I have not heard of one having an issue with rebooking if you are uncomfortable with how many passengers are on your plane. I think all the airlines are requiring a mask on the plane. As well all the airports are also. Most airplanes are pretty empty still.

Now for the feel good stuff, as far as the industry knows not a single person has caught the virus as a passenger on a US airline. Kind of amazing huh. There could be a good reason why.

Airplanes are designed for air to circulate top to bottom. The air goes through a hospital grade Hipaa filter. And the industry is replacing them more often. More good news is the air is replaced approximately every four minutes with clean air from the outside. It is an ongoing process during that four minutes. Air being recirculated through filters and new air introduced.

I fly in the back often for long periods of time as we Deadhead (Thinking of Jerry G) back and forth from Hawaii because their quarantine deal. Everyone seems to be cooperating from my seat.

Mileage will vary with how comfortable people are with this arrangement but it is what it is. One thing to keep in mind the availability of food can be limiting at the airport these days. Some better than others.

Hope this helps!

Stay safe and GO RAMS!!!

Somehow I became "@quarantine" on your message on this page. Must have happened during a spell check.

 

[-X-]

Are you though?

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[bluecoconuts]

Yeah, you sort of left out the detailed reasoning given back in March why mask wearing was futile, in fact the one thing here I hope most of us can agree on is the overwhelmingly number one way to contract this virus has always been hands to face/mouth, which one must do every time one puts one on.

Of course it wouldn’t be the first time false information was passed out as medical fact

Not really trying to jump into details, just trying to give a quick reasoning on why the message changed. Scientists learned more, the information changed, that’s just how science is. I can promise you, it wasn’t the scientists making such sweeping statements.

Let me just sidestep that and ask you this. What's keeping your eyes safe?

Nothing but by sunglasses or other safety goggles that I sometimes wear in the lab. Masks aren’t supposed to be 100%, they’re not a magic shield, but they take the chance of you getting infected if you interact with Covid down significantly, into the single digits.

The only time I believe you should “have” to wear a mask is if you’re inside or you’re close to someone else, and that’s not for you so much as for them. Masks work, the science is there, it’s testable for people at home, but they’re not magic, everyone has to understand how to use them. Many don’t, the wesr them wrong, they reuse masks, they don’t change filters or wash them. They’ll still do their job of stopping the spit, but they’re gross and unhygienic. Someone can take a shower all they want, but if they put on never washed clothes, it’s still pretty gross.

 

[Mackeyser]

Any parents out there making school decisions?

We are getting an option for 100% at home or 100% in person with a bunch of safety measures.

I’m going to wait until the last minute but am leaning towards at home as my kids are old enough to manage it reasonably well.

the one upside of living in FL is that you can do really flexible stuff. We are having our granddaughter home school this year. I’d have to move out of my house if my granddaughter went to elementary school in this climate (she and her mother, my son’s fiancée live with us) as my compromised immune system couldn’t handle it.

I know some places make if SUPER hard to begin homeschooling now.

 

[Mackeyser]

I live in a small town near Emporia, KS. My town is 540 people, and Emporia is about 25,000

my sister lives on the other side of the state in Fowler, KS...south of Dodge.

 

[12intheBox]

@-X- I hope I didn’t come across as accusing you of being a conspiracy theorist - I have found you very measured and reasonable throughout this thread.

When I saw your tweet, I went to twitter and the replies where what I was speaking to there.

It’s clearly apples and oranges - but maybe this will help explain where I am coming from in this whole thing.

In my work, when I take a case I generally know very little about it. Maybe I have my clients side of the story - sometimes I don’t even have that much.

I can’t tell you how often I get asked - “what is the plan?” Well, there is no plan more often than not. The plan is to let me adapt as the case unfolds - to make real time decisions as we figure out what the hell is happening. I will often give my client some marching orders to begin a case. Get an evaluation, do community service, etc. Something they can do to be productive in their case.

Often, once new facts become available, those things I had them do become worthless. I just have to explain to them that ... well -

I get all kinds in my bidness. And one kind I get a lot are the people who have ‘done some research’. These armchair lawyers are the worst, and honestly - criminal practice isnt nearly as complex as some other areas.

So long explanation made shorter, I trust experts. That trust may be misplaced - experts have been wrong before - but I’ll take the career epidemiologists at their word when the subject is an epidemic the same way I trust my doctor over web md.

I don’t see much disagreement between epidemiologists about the right steps to take at this point. And I really do think America keeps shooting itself in the foot.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Update from the university’s research team on their progress in my morning email today.

Researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine have identified an antibody that can stop coronaviruses in their tracks — including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The antibody, called S309, was first found in a blood sample from a patient who recovered from SARS back in 2003. It works by attaching to a coronavirus’ spike-like exterior, effectively rendering the virus useless by preventing entry into host cells and hindering replication. The researchers’ work is now on an accelerated path toward clinical trials to see if it’s effective in real-world applications. If it’s found to be effective, this antibody could lead to groundbreaking therapies to help treat or even prevent COVID-19 in the future. Takeaway:

UW School of Medicine researchers have found an antibody that’s effective against stopping SARS-CoV-2 and hope to develop therapies to treat or prevent COVID-19.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

It’s my only child, a son, and he came along when I was 48, but it’s on him to carry the family tree, my 82 year old dad was so proud to hold him

Servite? wasn’t that Steve Beuerlein’s school?

I was districted for Sunny Hills, my beloved 70 Pontiac 400 Firebird met it’s demise in 1978 near the RR tracks at the bottom of the main entrance to SHHS, kids used to pour motor oil just to burn rubber, my dipstick wife at the time managed to lose control into that huge telephone pole, that car didn’t need motor oil to burn rubber, good thing for her I was half way around the world at the time.

we definitely chewed some of the same turf it would appear

He actually likes Edison, but do they have to be named Edison Chargers? Makes sense I guess

Totally, I went to school with John Beuerlein, his younger brother, unfortunately for John he didn't get the height Steve had.
He sorta lived in his shadow. Great athlete though -- I remember him as being a really cool dude though.

HAHAHHHAH
such a great story about your 70 Pontiac.
Yeah, it was a tradition to pour out oil all over the hill leading up to the school. My buddy rolled his Ford Bronco - it was one of those old school Broncos with the American Flag colors - it was epic. He rolled that thing into the telephone pole hahahhha. The thing that was funny - or sucked for us poor kids - was that his dad was the CEO of waste king garbage disposals and the next day he had a brand new Acura Integra. We took that thing up the coast at graduation - each of us had a QP of weed, and our plan was to drive up the coast to Canada then loop around to Calgary then come down through Montana and loop around through the Grand Canyon. But being the stoners we were we ended up getting to Humboldt and camped out on the Van Duzen river and just stayed there until we ran out of weed. We were so stupid at the time, we'd smell a skunk and think cause we were in Humboldt that it was weed and we'd go stomping around for hours with no luck.
Anyway, it was good times back in 1988. Things are definitely not the same now.

 

[OldSchool]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

 

[12intheBox]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

From the article ... " But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash."

I mean, I suppose you could argue that - but you really shouldn't.

FWIW - the CDC guidelines bar listing COVID unless it caused or contributed to death - although clearly those guidelines aren't being followed.

The numbers are chaos right now. The reporting is chaos. I still tend to believe that the problem is real and that we can all make a difference in how bad things get.

 

[OldSchool]

From the article ... " But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash."

I mean, I suppose you could argue that - but you really shouldn't.

FWIW - the CDC guidelines bar listing COVID unless it caused or contributed to death - although clearly those guidelines aren't being followed.

The numbers are chaos right now. The reporting is chaos. I still tend to believe that the problem is real and that we can all make a difference in how bad things get.

Absolutely the problem is real and should be taken seriously but examples like this give cause for people to question the d parts. Especially silly when you hear the medical examiner like you quoted say it could have been Covid that caused the crash. A major stretch for anybody to make I mean it could have been the Easter Bunny that caused it too. I’ll look for another article but one site sent in 4 unused tests and all came back positive, it’s just a mess.

 

[-X-]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

 

[Merlin]

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

This is un-fucking-conscionable. I am so fucking tired of the lying and politicizing of reporting parameters. It's like we're back in the dark ages where we operate on hearsay only with everything.

We really need the federal side to enforce better reporting. If you have to remove monetary kickbacks that relate to cases so be it. Remove the temptation for the states to gouge the numbers so the next time this happens we can at least know wtf is going on with the mortality rate side of things.

 

[12intheBox]

I’m not sure I understand the point of having “monetary kickbacks” in the first place in the CARES act. I’m all for the fed govt kicking in cash to help the states get the medical supplies they need, but they shouldn’t need to tie that to death or case statistics - they could just use population. Give the states incentives to keep their numbers low, if anything.

But yes - rather than having 50 differing responses - we have needed one all along. One way of counting cases, one way of counting deaths, one set of measurements for when and how it is safe to reopen - and that part could be regional so that places doing well don’t need to lock it down like places that are on fire do - but one set of criteria for that.