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GAME DAY Wild Card Sunday - Broncos at Bills / Packers at Eagles / Commodes at Bucs

Remember 2010 when the Hags won the division with a 7-9 record and both the 10-6 Giants and Bucs missed the playoffs? It was stupid... but I still like the current division home field format. It's like hey you sucked in the reg season but your entire division sucked more. I like the current format but want those losing record teams to lose in the playoffs. Imagine a 7-9 record SB winner.
If a 7-9 division winner pulls that off, they deserve it because they still got beat teams with much better records.
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The Monty Hall Problem

This site includes a model that lets you see that switching is the way to go:


Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time!

Summary​

Here’s the key points to understanding the Monty Hall puzzle:

  • Two choices are 50-50 when you know nothing about them
  • Monty helps us by “filtering” the bad choices on the other side. It’s a choice of a random guess and the “Champ door” that’s the best on the other side.
  • In general, more information means you re-evaluate your choices.
The fatal flaw in the Monty Hall paradox is not taking Monty’s filtering into account, thinking the chances are the same before and after. But the goal isn’t to understand this puzzle — it’s to realize how subsequent actions & information challenge previous decisions. Happy math.
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Omar Speights might be the steal of 24

There's truth in that. Like you I am tired of watching poor ILB play, even though I understand it has not been a priority in the way the Rams valued things on defense.

But in previous years we got away with weak ILB due to strong DL, and having AD in there wrecking shit. AD being gone, there's a chance the Rams build that front a little better across the board. Also Shula seems to value the ILBs. I'm not counting snaps and shit in saying that, I just find it interesting that in his first year as DC we unearth a UDFA ILB who can play.

Also one problem has been that the Rams haven't managed to hit on the position in the draft. They haven't prioritized it outside of taking Jones. But Jones was a disappointment in his lack of range, that bum knee wasn't getting any better, and he seemed to be a bit too high on his own ability as demonstrated by his contract year travels. Truth is I would take Speights over him right now, no hesitation, because he's cheaper with team control and younger and healthier. I don't see a ton of dropoff from Jones to him and that's the heart of it for me.

I'm wondering what Speights looks like back there once he gets fully vested in the system and has no downs/distances where he's thinking. How good he may get is going to come down to the quickness of his processing.


One thing that is interesting is Speights is not a bad athlete for ILB. He for example is close to Fred Warner athletically in his forty time. Warner ran a 4.64 forty. Speights ran a 4.62 forty. Now Warner's the better athlete for sure, as he was carrying more weight and he outperformed him in the three cone and vert. But Speights weight isn't too big a concern for me as he has stopping power when he hits. The dude hits backs like a guy weighing 250. They stop.

So he's a really nice find for the Rams. I don't think he's going to be an elite backer or anything. But like you I am enjoying watching him develop. It's great to see him and Rozeboom playing like they have been. And maybe we see the Rams invest in a SS conversion to pair with him in this next draft, one of those oversized types with some range in the box.
I posted about this in the undrafted thread if someone can dig it out. He tested in some elite ranges during his pro day. I explained why he might be a steal and he has already surpassed any reasonable expectations

This is a great draft to find an ILB to play alongside him

Bassa at Oregon is a former Safety

Orange Bowl

He just signed the extension which pays him between 9-10 mill.
He has no carve outs in the contract so it would require a massive buy out. He’s going nowhere.
I suspected they signed him to the extension before OSU played their 1st round game in the event they lost and fired Day.
He's a hell of a coach. Gotta say NFL owners gonna come knocking sooner or later.

One thing I really appreciate with Notre Dame as well is how their secondary plays. Those boys are one extremely well coached group.

Some PFF grades vs Sea Chickens

He was top tier. It was just the injuries that held him back. His movement skills are crazy.

The Rams envisioned him being a pulling guard, which he did very well when healthy at Detroit. But, moving Avila to center was not working as planned. That and the injuries screwed up the entire plan. Had Avila transitioned well to Center and Jackson was fully healthy, this offensive line would be a top five unit.
Im basing what I said on watching a few Lions games and focusing on Jackson. The games I saw he was solid but not great.....that of course, in the big picture, means nothing.
I will take your word he is top tier.
He certainly played well vs Seattle.
I assume he is returning next year.
Camp could be interesting with Avila, Limmer, Dotson and Jackson for 3 spots.
Now that the starting line is back together Avila has been the weakest link, in pass pro anyway.
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Views on PFF - curious what everyone thinks

Ok. Full admission. You and 20hrswk work for PFF - right???

Seriously - I often look up players PFF ratings but that’s because I love stats. I prefer to use my own eyes for my primary assessment (as flawed as that might be) and PFF/ESPN stats, FFB stats/etc. as complimentary.
I've got a similar process.

I use my eyes primarily for Rams players and then refer to PFF, Next Gen, ESPN, and other analytical data. Most of the time, it's within ballpark of what I expected. Sometimes it's way off, like when they say Kyren is not good at pass pro, in which case I ignore their assessment.

For non-Rams players I use the analytical data first and then my eyes because I don't see all of them play often.