Here is my take, and I’d ask you to at least hear me out.
Overall, this defense is playing very well. Specifically, the secondary is performing at a much higher level than the "eye test" suggests, and I have the data to back that up.
First, let’s consider the context of our schedule. We faced a league-high strength of schedule, which included playing eventual playoff teams eight different times. Despite that gauntlet, we were incredibly competitive; we held a lead of at least 10 points at some stage of the second half in nine separate games.
Because our offense was elite—averaging 30.5 PPG—opponents were forced to throw the ball constantly just to keep pace. This wasn't just happening against the "bad" teams on our schedule, either. In at least half of our games, opponents had to abandon the run and lean on the pass out of pure necessity.
This context is vital when reconciling the discrepancy between advanced metrics and basic box score statistics. Look at how the rankings shift when you add context:
Offensive DVOA: 1st Overall (1st Passing, 1st Rushing)
EPA/Play: 1st Overall (3rd Passing, 11th Rushing)
Defensive DVOA: 3rd Overall (5th Passing, 6th Rushing)
EPA/Play: 10th Overall (10th Passing, 13th Rushing)
If you only look at total yards allowed, the defense ranks 19th. However, advanced statistics like DVOA take the situation and outcome of every single snap and compare them to the league average for that specific scenario. They account for the fact that we played a brutal schedule and forced opponents into high-volume passing situations.
Here is the key: We blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league, yet we maintained the 4th-highest pressure percentage. While it’s easy to credit the defensive line for this, the secondary deserves massive praise. A pass rush cannot "get home" if the DBs aren't locked on, especially when you only rush four.
Regarding the eye test, we have to acknowledge that recency bias is real—and it correlates directly with the injury to Quentin Lake. I remember the Rams being 2nd in PPG allowed at one point before he went down.
All that being said, and homerism aside, it does seem like we have a handful of cornerbacks who are either JAGs or barely above average. That position group would absolutely benefit the most from the addition of a true difference-maker.
Pinch yourselves: Neither this defense nor its CBs are as bad as they seem!
