Stafford vs Goff stats
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ramsplaya16
The One and Only
I’m taking Staff 10/10 times.
No Goff hate, I always hope he does well.
He just always made the worst plays at the most inopportune times.
I always felt like if he got hit once or twice he was gonna go into his shell for the rest of the game.
No Goff hate, I always hope he does well.
He just always made the worst plays at the most inopportune times.
I always felt like if he got hit once or twice he was gonna go into his shell for the rest of the game.
Word!!!
The only reason I watch a Lions game is if they're playing the Rams...or just to see Goff play. He definitely upped his game.
I really think the only reason McVay traded him is he knew how small the window was to get that Rams team to the SuperBowl and he didn't have the time to wait on Goff to develop. The opportunity to get Stafford appeared and he jumped on it.
We talked about it a million times.
But my take was Goff was younger and top QBs are hard to find. He was putting up insane numbers for his age leading the highest scoring offense over two years and was the youngest NFC QB to take his team to an NFC Championship.
Also I viewed Stafford as a more complete, mature QB but the inconsistency scared me, knowing his window would render only a few real shots.
Stafford however, put together an incredible, consistent postseason run so I was wrong on that front. He justified the trade with the postseason performance and the Lombardi.
Now we are coming to that end of Career for Stafford and who knows if we will ever get a top QB. I do have faith the Rams will find a franchise guy that can lead a top offense, but there are no guarantees and if you don't have one you are in suckville for a long time.
Whether or not Goff can get a Lombardi is yet to be seen, but it is a team game and some of the greats never got one. So I am not sure its a fair measure of his success.
But my take was Goff was younger and top QBs are hard to find. He was putting up insane numbers for his age leading the highest scoring offense over two years and was the youngest NFC QB to take his team to an NFC Championship.
Also I viewed Stafford as a more complete, mature QB but the inconsistency scared me, knowing his window would render only a few real shots.
Stafford however, put together an incredible, consistent postseason run so I was wrong on that front. He justified the trade with the postseason performance and the Lombardi.
Now we are coming to that end of Career for Stafford and who knows if we will ever get a top QB. I do have faith the Rams will find a franchise guy that can lead a top offense, but there are no guarantees and if you don't have one you are in suckville for a long time.
Whether or not Goff can get a Lombardi is yet to be seen, but it is a team game and some of the greats never got one. So I am not sure its a fair measure of his success.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #65
QB is definitely the most important position on a team, but other teams have won the SB with "mediocre" QBs.
I just spent an entire week ripping into Jalen Hurts, saying that without a doubt I'd rather have Ty Simpson over him even if the salaries were identical. I just don't think that Hurts is that great, despite his resume and the Super Bowl ring.
I think that asking who is better between Goff and Stafford misses the bigger point. The key (and the surprising part) of the stats I posted is that they are even close. Intuitively, it shouldn't even be a discussion, because let's compare Jalen Hurts's career stats to Goff's Detroit stats.
Completion %: Goff 67.9%, Hurts 64.2%
TDs: Goff 158, Hurts 117
INTs: Goff 47 (1.6%), Hurts 48 (1.9%)
TD to INT ratio: Goff 3.36, Hurts 2.44
Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt: Goff 8.0, Hurts 6.5
QB passer rating: Goff 101.7, Hurts 94.1
For much of his career, Hurts has had an outstanding OL, good offensive coaching, a very strong running game, phenomenal WR and TE talent around him. Imagine what his stats would be if he had been on a bad team.
I feel that if Goff were as bad as some people contend, his stats should be worse than Hurts's numbers. This thread shouldn't even exist. The way the Lions look right now, I don't think they will ever get to the SB with Goff. On the other hand, if you put Goff on the Eagles team that won the SB with Hurts, yes, I believe they still would have won the SB over Mahomes if they had had Goff instead of Hurts at QB. There probably are several NFL starters that could have won it for them. Hurts is overrated. He just happened to get drafted to the right team. I don't think he's anything special as an individual player.
I agree with all that.
I looked it up. Only 4 of all of the Super Bowl winning QB's have failed to make a pro bowl. The vast majority of the Super Bowl winning QB's have been very good to great, except the 4.
Those four are: Jim Plunkett, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, & Nick Foles.
My point was I think it's a good decision to go after the franchise type QB, even at a high cost and if the overall team suffers in other positions. It's worth it to get that QB. Teams with the top QB's are predominently the teams that win the Super Bowl.
My opinion, which may differ from yours, is that the move to get Stafford was (and is still) worth it. You seem to believe Stafford is a bit better QB than Goff for all the reasons other than stats. Because of that, I wasn't expecting you to state "negative impact on subsequent years". Again, my opinion, great QB's make the other players better, and it's mostly the great QB's that get their team to the promised land.
P.S. Oddly enough, Hurts has made it to the pro bowl 3 times. He doesn't seem like a pro bowl QB to me.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #67
Fair. I think there is a chicken and egg effect. I like Bryce Young. Not saying he's the best QB in the NFL (or better than Stafford) but just saying he deserved to be drafted high in the 1st round. Early in his career, some of his WRs were terrible. His OL was bad. Some people thought he was a bust. Look at him now. He has Tetairoa McMillan on his team. That one WR makes a big difference. If Carolina hadn't "fixed" their roster, maybe Young would still be considered a bust today.
Is Tom Brady really better than Marc Bulger? Those 2 QBs were in the same draft class. What if Bulger had been drafted by the Patriots and the Rams had ended up with Brady? Bulger was a Pro Bowl QB when the rest of the Rams team around him was good but he was a "bad" QB when the team declined and he got beat up and pounded by sacks. I love Brady, I always thought he was going to be great but in terms of pure arm talent, Bugler had the better arm.
In order to win the SB or get the QB to Pro Bowls, the rest of the team needs to good enough to support the QB, even if you have the right QB. This is key for Ty Simpson as he moves forward. We need to develop him as an individual player but if we don't have the support system around him, he won't succeed even if he does his part.
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- #68
I'm surprised by the stats. I knew Goff had played well for Detroit, but I thought the stats would be flipped the other way. Goff being in the top 10 in stats is expected but this goes beyond that.
Since 2021, Goff is 2nd in passing yards behind Mahomes. He's 3rd in TDs. Over that time period, Allen has 66 picks, Mahomes has 63 and Goff with 47 is tied with ARod as having the lowest INT rate among any QB ranking in the top 10 in TD passes. Goff is 4th in QB passer rating (behind Purdy, Burrow and Lamar Jackson.) Stafford is 8th.
Let's add lost fumbles to INTs. Goff has 66 total turnovers. Mahomes has 70, even playing fewer games. Josh Allen has 84.
This isn't one season or 2 seasons worth of stats. We're into the 6th season of the combined stats, which is a pretty large sample size. I find it odd that the national media doesn't talk about Goff the way they talk about QBs like Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert. For example, PFF ranked Goff 16th in their QB power rankings entering the 2026 season. In Nick Shook's power rankings to begin the season, Goff was 11th. ESPN polled NFL coaches and front office people and "only" 60% of the respondents put Goff in the top 10. In terms of reputation, Goff is either an average to a slightly above average NFL starter, fringe top 10. The stats say otherwise. The stats say that Goff is a slam dunk top 5 QB.
Even John Robinson went and got Ernie Zampese. And the Rams offense got better.
Only if Dickerson was there with Ellard, Flipper and Evrett ? What could have been.
Vermiel got Martz and won it all.
I think a big part of Goffs stats not matching his media rankings comes down to two things. First, he has a track record of folding under pressure (most often in the past) and this separates champions from the very good. Second, Goff doesn't have wow plays that other QB's have. Mahomes, Allen, Jackson have the scrambling stuff. Stafford has wow throws such as the goal line fade, the no looks and threading balls in to tight spaces.
Goff is a methodical machine with excellent accuracy in short to medium and sometimes deep balls. He's really in the mold of Brady or Everett in terms of methodical pocket passer with laser accuracy and playing the play as designed like a machine. The difference is Brady has Championships, without the wow plays. If a play breaks down Goff is screwed and worse, he often has a hard time minimizing the problem. It doesn't instill confidence in ciritics that he can create outside of the design of the play if things go south. This is where champions are known to find a way. Stafford did it vs the Niners and Mahomes has done it time and again with his scrambling and even Warner had his Tampa game where he had to find Proehl at the end in a terrible offensive showing.
That said, Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Prescott and the rest still don't have a Lombardi. It's a team game. Players like Stafford, Rodgers, and Warner just have the one Lombari. They are hard to get.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #71
This is Goff vs Tom Brady during same age range, so 2004 through 2009 for Brady. In 2008, Brady got injured and missed almost the entire season. We'll take regular season first, then playoff stats, then I'll attempt to adjust for "statistical inflation", since playing QB today is easier than when Brady played. I had to calculate Brady's stats by hand, so I apologize if I made any errors.
Regular season:
Compl %: Goff 67.9%, Brady 64.2%
Yards per game: Goff 287.5, Brady 254.4 (256.7 adjusted. I took out the game where he got injured.)
TD %: Goff 5.3%, Brady 5.8%
INT %: Goff 1.6%, Brady 2.3%
QB rating: Goff 91.8, Brady 97.7
Fumbles per game: Goff 0.43, Brady 0.41
Playoffs:
Record: Goff 2-2, Brady 8-4
Compl %: Goff 66.2%, Brady 62.8%
YPG: Goff 287.5, Brady 228.7
TD%: Goff 3.3%, Brady 5.3%
INT%: Goff 2.0%, Brady 2.9%
QB rating: Goff 91.8, Brady 87.7 (Brady's career playoff QB rating is 89.8)
Adjusted stats:
I'm going to list PFR's indexed adjusted net yards per attempt and ratings, because those are normalized for that particular season, which will give us a better grasp on how the QB did for that particular era. This should provide a better head-to-head comparison. I don't know how to calculate a combined number for Brady, so we'll list each year individually. There is no number for Brady's 2008 season, presumably since he was out for almost the entire year, so PFR didn't include him.
Goff's ANY+: 93, 122, 116, 129, 121, 120. [His total ANY+ for Detroit is 117. As you can see, his 1st year (when the Lions were bad) is the outlier.]
Brady's ANY+: 118, 116, 108, 142, 120. [The huge score is from the phenomenal 2007 season, when Brady broke NFL records with Moss and Welker and the Pats were undefeated until the Super Bowl. Notice how the numbers compare if we didn't include that season. Brady's ANY+ for his entire Patriot career is 116, almost exactly the same as the Detroit version of Goff.]
Goff's rate+: 100, 115, 115, 131, 121, 121.
Brady's rate+: 115, 114, 109, 148, 116. [As before, the huge number is from 2007. Let's take out Goff's best year, then drop his 121 score from 2026, since we are still early in the season. Then we'll take out Brady's 2007 season, leaving 4 seasons for each QB to average. Goff's average would be 114 and Brady's comes to 113.5, nearly identical.]
Regular season:
Compl %: Goff 67.9%, Brady 64.2%
Yards per game: Goff 287.5, Brady 254.4 (256.7 adjusted. I took out the game where he got injured.)
TD %: Goff 5.3%, Brady 5.8%
INT %: Goff 1.6%, Brady 2.3%
QB rating: Goff 91.8, Brady 97.7
Fumbles per game: Goff 0.43, Brady 0.41
Playoffs:
Record: Goff 2-2, Brady 8-4
Compl %: Goff 66.2%, Brady 62.8%
YPG: Goff 287.5, Brady 228.7
TD%: Goff 3.3%, Brady 5.3%
INT%: Goff 2.0%, Brady 2.9%
QB rating: Goff 91.8, Brady 87.7 (Brady's career playoff QB rating is 89.8)
Adjusted stats:
I'm going to list PFR's indexed adjusted net yards per attempt and ratings, because those are normalized for that particular season, which will give us a better grasp on how the QB did for that particular era. This should provide a better head-to-head comparison. I don't know how to calculate a combined number for Brady, so we'll list each year individually. There is no number for Brady's 2008 season, presumably since he was out for almost the entire year, so PFR didn't include him.
Goff's ANY+: 93, 122, 116, 129, 121, 120. [His total ANY+ for Detroit is 117. As you can see, his 1st year (when the Lions were bad) is the outlier.]
Brady's ANY+: 118, 116, 108, 142, 120. [The huge score is from the phenomenal 2007 season, when Brady broke NFL records with Moss and Welker and the Pats were undefeated until the Super Bowl. Notice how the numbers compare if we didn't include that season. Brady's ANY+ for his entire Patriot career is 116, almost exactly the same as the Detroit version of Goff.]
Goff's rate+: 100, 115, 115, 131, 121, 121.
Brady's rate+: 115, 114, 109, 148, 116. [As before, the huge number is from 2007. Let's take out Goff's best year, then drop his 121 score from 2026, since we are still early in the season. Then we'll take out Brady's 2007 season, leaving 4 seasons for each QB to average. Goff's average would be 114 and Brady's comes to 113.5, nearly identical.]
Agreed on Hurts. Classic example of bottom level QB with top surrounding talent. Can't read a defense or throw accurately from the pocket consistently or read a defense to save his life. He did a good tush push and could throw some deep balls at times.
It's really a lesson on how far an Oline can take an offense. One of the most dominant Olines of our generation.
ReekofRams
Hall of Fame
It's a safe bet when it starts like that.........^^^^^^^
........that is the point.
Of course with all those stats he posted, he could have been bursting at the seams with them and just had to release them. Sorta like boules bleues.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #75
If there's anything I've learned in my short time on ROD it is that my almost "academic" way of discussing football, as if we were taking a college class studying the subject, doesn't fly. Maybe I need to be like Bills fans, get drunk and jump onto a folding table. Less subtlety and more exclamation points.
When a team trades away future draft picks, it has zero impact on the current season. Let's take the Myles Garrett trade as an example. The Browns got 3 early round picks (2027, 2028 and 2029) plus Verse for Garrett. Think about that for the 2026 season. We got the best defender in the NFL and if we ignore the part involving Verse, we gave up nothing that impacts 2026. All of the draft picks have yet to be exercised, so that 2027 1st rounder wouldn't have helped us this season.
The "cost" the team pays is only going to be felt well down the road, several years after the trade is made. The real-life analogy would be someone making a purchase on a credit card. You just got something of value (whateveer you bought) but you didn't immediately give up anything in return. At first, it is a sweet deal. It is only later when the bill comes that you have to figure out how to handle the other half of the transaction.
A key reason the Rams have continued to be so successful is we "stole" multiple 1st round players by either fantastic or very lucky (depending on your characterization) draft picks by Snead. Puka Nacua, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, guys like that have performed as if they were former high 1st round picks. To have a cluster of picks like that is tough to accomplish.
Could the roster be even deeper if we had more actual 1st round picks to supplement these other great picks by Snead? Why is that such a wild concept? I don't think multiple 1st round picks can be dismissed as not being valuable and not having any impact on the 2026 Rams. I'd contend that the McDuffie trade wouldn't be necessary if we had used one of those picks on the right CB. We traded 4 picks to get McDuffie. This would be like someone taking out a loan to pay off the credit card bill. Okay, now we took care of the credit card, but did we improve the situation or just make the future total debt even bigger?
Classic Rams
Hall of Fame
I would say "lucky" if it were 1 or 2 guys. When you CONTINUE to find talent past the first round, that is great scouting and phenominal drafting. And not to question your academia, but that is why FUCK THEM PICKS works (for the Rams). You say the Rams will eventually pay? Let me know when that happens professor.
As far as the premise, "wouldn't we be better with the first round picks?", I'd say 'no'. Will any of them turn out to be Myles Garrett or Trent McDuffie? I seriously doubt it. You must be one of those draftniks that values potential over proven. Similar to lottery tickets over investments.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #78
Maybe it already happened. How would we know? We're talking about some alternate universe where we don't know what happens if the chain of events were different. The Rams aren't defending Super Bowl champs. How would we know whether it was "possible" or not possible for them to have won it last year? There is no way of answering that question. All we know in our universe is what happened in our timeline. The only way we definitively would know the Rams couldn't do better is if they literally won every single game they play and won the SB every single season. Then, it would be impossible for them to have a better record, because they would be maxed out at 100%.
Yes 2017 and 2018 were great years for Goff and the future was obviously bright. But you didn't mention the massive regression that came in 2019 and 2020 to the point where McVay reportedly believed John freaking Wolford should get the starting nod over him. It was really bad and really frustrating to watch as a fan, I can only imagine how it felt as a coach.
I'm glad he got his mojo back in Detroit but it really seems like he got comfortable and lost that fire here in LA and only getting kicked to the curb like trash re-ignited that in him.