Wouldn’t we get a comp pick if we hold on to him and he then signs elsewhere when his contract expires at the end of the season?
Not necessarily. And, probably not in this case.
The comp picks are based on a formula that considers the net additions (players added) and subtractions (players lost). It considers the number of free agents added and lost; and the contracts they receive.
In recent years, the Rams have lost players in free agency but signed very few. As a result, they have been awarded comp picks because their losses far exceeded their additions.
Consider last off-season when the Rams lost Gaines, Gay, Rapp, Long, Hill, Edwards, Mayfield, Robinson and others. Who did they sign in free agency? No one! All their additions (Witherspoon, Rypien, Michel, Robinson and the two Johnsons) were signed
after the Draft; and, therefore do not apply to the comp pick formula.
So the Rams will get comp picks for the 2024 Draft ... three or four but they will be late round picks because none of the ex-Rams received big-$ contracts.
Now consider the up-coming 2024 free agency. The Rams will have cap space and figure to be active. Meanwhile, they do not have big-ticket players set to leave via free agency. Their additions should easily exceed their losses. That means no comp picks in 2025. Jefferson was not going to change that.