QB Hints

[dieterbrock]

I think so. Wentz was here for one season? He loved Wolford’s IQ and work ethic but once he saw him in action it didn’t last. I think he just loved Perkins mobility. And, how much of that praise was coach speak to boost morale. If he loved Perkins he should have played more. He likely dreamed of Wolford and Perkins being merged into one QB.

We have all complained about our very young and inexperienced coach’s willingness to ignore the backup QB spot. It bit him in the ass with Rypien. He seems to have learned a hard lesson, and that’s why the Rams saved cap room for Garappolo, who is a QB they know they can win with. I think I’d look to Jimmy G a bit more for the type of ‘out of round 1‘ QB they likely have to settle on. Getting a running QB that can do everything McVay wants is a pipe dream outside of the top few QBs.

You give the reasons why the QB's didnt stick, but the point is that they were also the "type" that McVay looked for. Perkins was with the team for 3 years after being an UDFA, Wolford 4. And yes Rypien was a disaster but they replaced him with Wentz, and despite being with the team for 2 months they ran him like a mule. They've had 3 qb on the roster and I agree having Garoppolo is a solid backup, but I dont think that rules out a development qb with wheels

 

[Dodgersrf]

I think Bennett's ship has sailed. Might see him on practice squad, but that's about it

Yeah.
His ceiling is a Back up.
Which makes zero sense, when you need to groom a starter behind Matt.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

You give the reasons why the QB's didnt stick, but the point is that they were also the "type" that McVay looked for. Perkins was with the team for 3 years after being an UDFA, Wolford 4. And yes Rypien was a disaster but they replaced him with Wentz, and despite being with the team for 2 months they ran him like a mule. They've had 3 qb on the roster and I agree having Garoppolo is a solid backup, but I dont think that rules out a development qb with wheels

They didn’t use a draft pick on any of them.

But I think you may have missed my point. If they were to draft a guy outside of round 1, then it’s much less likely that they can find a QB that can run and win from the pocket both. So, they almost have to choose which type is more likely to succeed under McVay. Is it Riley Leonard, who runs a lot or is it a pocket passer like Rourke? I think they lean towards the pocket passer first.

I’m sure if McVay had his way he’d draft a guy that can do both equally well. But, I also think he’d need an earlier first round pick to find that QB.

 

[dieterbrock]

They didn’t use a draft pick on any of them.

But I think you may have missed my point. If they were to draft a guy outside of round 1, then it’s much less likely that they can find a QB that can run and win from the pocket both. So, they almost have to choose which type is more likely to succeed under McVay. Is it Riley Leonard, who runs a lot or is it a pocket passer Rourke? I think they lean towards the pocket passer first.

I’m sure if McVay had his way he’d draft a guy that can do both equally well. But, I also think he’d need an earlier first round pick to find that QB.

PLEASE McVay, for the love of God. Dont draft Riley Leonard unless you plan on making him a TE
I see what you're saying, just dont know how it will shake out. Only QB Rams have drafted under McVay is Bennett, and they surely didnt expect him to win from the pocket. Heck, the next QB off the board that year was the pocket passer O'Connell. I get the feeling he wants the guy with wheels, but just hasnt found the right one yet, and to your point it is slim pickings after day 2.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

PLEASE McVay, for the love of God. Dont draft Riley Leonard unless you plan on making him a TE
I see what you're saying, just dont know how it will shake out. Only QB Rams have drafted under McVay is Bennett, and they surely didnt expect him to win from the pocket. Heck, the next QB off the board that year was the pocket passer O'Connell. I get the feeling he wants the guy with wheels, but just hasnt found the right one yet, and to your point it is slim pickings after day 2.

Agreed. I don’t want them to pick Leonard. Dart is the closest thing to both, but I don’t think he lasts to 26. There are still a few QB desperate teams ahead of the Rams in round 1. There are a few others that will be looking for a successor type too.

I don’t think Sanders and Dart are top five players, but they may be top five picks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go to the Browns and Giants. The Seahawks could be looking for a successor to Darnold, and the Steelers are desperate for a QB.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Bennett was always drafted to be a long term answer to the BACKUP QB.

Pretty much seems like he's not with us bringing back Jimmy.

Equation has changed now though so Rams looking for QB of the future. Bennett sticks if we don't pick up someone this year. And if we take Snead at his word that he's looking to pick up someone "special," I don't see the Rams taking anyone in this class unless they really wanna place a bet on improving Milroe.

 

[DzRams]

Yeah, because top 10 QBs always hit. So let's trade 4 premium picks for a 30% chance hit rate at best. Hell, even the "can't miss" top 5 guys often bust.

You are not moving from the late 20's into the top 5 or 10 without giving up a shit ton of picks...especially if the league views these QBs highly in a better draft.

I don't recall saying top 10 QBs always hit. Let's not create strawmen arguments. QBs in all rounds will bust. The difference in hit rate is key.

A few pages back I listed all QBs drafted in the last 10 years that became long-term starters. Only 3 were drafted outside the 1st round (Prescott, Hurts, Purdy).

Now I've done a deeper dive on the 1st round itself, over the last 15 years (2009 - 2023), again using long-term starters as the hit criteria.

Picks 1-10 have a 61.3% hit rate.
Picks 11-32 have a 20% hit rate.

The fact that the hit rate is 300% better in the top 10 is why Snead moved from 15 to 1. It's why the Chiefs moved from 27 to 10. In the Chiefs case, they didn't give up the equivalent of 3 #27 picks yet the hit rate at 10 is three-fold better than where they were. It's basic math (analytics).

BTW, Snead moved up from 15...not the mid 20's. And he was only able to do that because Goff was not considered a slam dunk to be a franchise QB...it was a weak QB class.

I'm aware. Did you know on the trade chart that the difference in value between 15 and 1 is 1950 points? Whereas the difference in value between 26 and 10 is only 600 points.

It took MORE draft capital for Snead to move from #15 to #1 than it would to move from the end of the 1st to around #10. KC moved from #27 to #10 to select Mahomes. Atlanta moved from #26 to 36 to select Julio Jones. Both of those moves took less than what Snead gave up for Goff.

 

[dieterbrock]

Now I've done a deeper dive on the 1st round itself, over the last 15 years (2009 - 2023), again using long-term starters as the hit criteria.

How do you determine a long term starter from a draft 2 years ago?

 

[DzRams]

How do you determine a long term starter from a draft 2 years ago?

That is a bit iffy. I counted Stroud because he seems to be entrenched.

 

[dieterbrock]

2016, 2 QB in 1st 10 picks, 0 still with team
2017, 2 QB in 1st 10 picks, 1 still with team
2018, 4 QB in 1st 10 picks, 1 still with team
2019, 2 QB in 1st 10 picks, 1 still with team
2020, 3 QB in 1st 10 picks, 3 still with team
2021, 3 QB in 1st 10 picks, 1 still with team

6 Drafts- 16 QB in top 10, only 7 still with team that drafted them

Edit- 2014/2015 drafts had 3 QB in 1st 10 picks, 0 still with team

19 QB in 1st 10 picks, only 7 still with them

 

[PhillyRam]

I'm aware. Did you know on the trade chart that the difference in value between 15 and 1 is 1950 points? Whereas the difference in value between 26 and 10 is only 600 points.

It took MORE draft capital for Snead to move from #15 to #1 than it would to move from the end of the 1st to around #10. KC moved from #27 to #10 to select Mahomes. Atlanta moved from #26 to 36 to select Julio Jones. Both of those moves took less than what Snead gave up for Goff.

There is no guarantee that if there are 4 high quality QB's that any of them even make it past 5. Last year the first 3 picks were QBs...

 

[dieterbrock]

There is no guarantee that if there are 4 high quality QB's that any of them even make it past 5. Last year the first 3 picks were QBs...

Of course more recently the 49ers traded 3- 1st round picks, and a 3rd round pick to move from just #12 to #3

 

[Londoner]

if there are 4 high quality QB's

There aren't. Not in this draft.

In fact, there aren't any elite QB prospects this year, let alone four. But teams inevitably get desperate and overdraft the position.

 

[dieterbrock]

There aren't. Not in this draft.

In fact, there aren't any elite QB prospects this year, let alone four. But teams inevitably get desperate and overdraft the position.

Pretty sure he's referring to 2026 draft, discussion has been ongoing about waiting until next year to draft a QB and the cost to trade up for 1

 

[Londoner]

Pretty sure he's referring to 2026 draft, discussion has been ongoing about waiting until next year to draft a QB and the cost to trade up for 1

My bad. I should have read the whole conversation first.

 

[DzRams]

There is no guarantee that if there are 4 high quality QB's that any of them even make it past 5. Last year the first 3 picks were QBs...

True. Since we're talking about the draft, let's assume that I understand the word "guarantee" shouldn't be used in any capacity for any reason.

But since you brought up last year, that's a perfect case in point. Bo Nix looks good and he was pick 12. McCarthey was pick 10. I'd rather aggressively move up to that range in a strong QB draft than take someone at 26 in a weak QB draft.

 

[dieterbrock]

True. Since we're talking about the draft, let's assume that I understand the word "guarantee" shouldn't be used in any capacity for any reason.

But since you brought up last year, that's a perfect case in point. Bo Nix looks good and he was pick 12. McCarthey was pick 10. I'd rather aggressively move up to that range in a strong QB draft than take someone at 26 in a weak QB draft.

So if the Rams move up to 12 for Dart it makes sense, but if he falls to 26 and they pick him then it doesnt?

 

[DzRams]

So if the Rams move up to 12 for Dart it makes sense, but if he falls to 26 and they pick him then it doesnt?

On Dart specifically, if the Rams move up for him, I will have to trust them. I will say, if there are teams that truly believe he is a franchise-caliber QB, he will be selected in the 12 or higher range.

I'm concerned on him because of multiple reports that several teams wouldn't touch him until late day 2 / early day 3 due to processing concerns. I don't recall hearing reports like that on any of the QBs drafted in the 1st last year.

 

[PhillyRam]

True. Since we're talking about the draft, let's assume that I understand the word "guarantee" shouldn't be used in any capacity for any reason.

But since you brought up last year, that's a perfect case in point. Bo Nix looks good and he was pick 12. McCarthey was pick 10. I'd rather aggressively move up to that range in a strong QB draft than take someone at 26 in a weak QB draft.

You can't assume that the 3rd best QB this year is worse than the 6th best QB next year. If both would be worthy of pick 26, then likley they are similar players.

However, the guy you take this year will have a year in the system, learning from Stafford & McVay for a year, which would likley make that QB a lot better in 26'than the 5th or 6th best rookie QB taken next year. That is important since that player may have to play next year.

 

[Merlin]

One thing we forget about with McVay is he's young as hell. So even though he's a natural with the culture and a strong game planner, he has had to learn a lot of shit the hard way as Head Coach. It's not like he had a decade as an OC or a long term as QB Coach to refer to as it pertains to choosing QBs.

I think RG3 taught him (he was TE Coach iirc when the drafted him but still) you don't want a primadonna bitch at QB. Cousins taught him you can have a decent offense with a limited QB. Goff taught him he prefers a QB who has that boldness to go downfield. Also I'd say he needs a resilient QB mentally, for example Stafford sort of makes fun of him in the huddle when he's still talking vice listening to every word. That experience was valuable in that regard I think. He had a couple mobile depth types who taught him he needed more at QB2 because those guys can end up playing games you need to win.

So the McVay QB I would say has the following traits:

1. Arm to stretch the field. McVay is trained under the WCO but philosophically favors the approach seen under different systems to some extent. He's savvy with using underneath to generate ball movement, but detests being locked to that.

2. Competitive & resilient mentally. If you're not all in on winning and pushing the envelope then McVay's going to wear you down to a nub.

3. Fast processing. Guys who process slow are not going to last long with McVay. He is capable of scheming it up Barney style, but if you make him do that you're gonna be gone.