Mack’s Way Too Early Win/Loss Prediction

[Malibu]

In what uninverse are some of you guys in? You all must be up late huffing paint seriously.

Just study our defense we have 8 new starters and projected worst secondary in the NFL 5- of top 6 players in the secondary are gone our #1 cb is a rookie last year with 5 games under his belt. We struggled at OLB now Floyd is gone. We had a solid run d now everyone except AD is gone.

Our defense will be historically bad like giving up 30+ ppg Detroit Lions bad.

Our Offense will be fine but it will not be on the field enough to catch up and surpass the amount of points our defense gives up.

BTW just because we had 14 draft picks it doesn't mean many of them will be good or a difference maker.

Lastly we have a completely new ST unit from coach to 4 new players that's nuts.

My prediction is 2-4 wins and that decision rests solely on how good of a HC we have. Otherswise most coaches would have zero to 2 wins with this team.

As like everyone wants I hope I am surprised.

 

[Malibu]

I don't think Caleb is some sure thing by any stretch. It's a bit of a trend to stick small QBs in the backfield in college but the NFL is a different animal than the NCAA. Defenses are better. Secondaries are smarter and more varied. You can't just roll over many opponents and pad stats vs lesser competition.

Only small QB who has won a Super Bowl in the past 10 years is Russell Wilson, and with that year's defense it's about as meaningful as drawing conclusions from Dilfer or McMahon because those teams could practically line up and run the ball every play and still win games.

Small QBs have a lot to prove at the NFL level. IMO. We'll see whether any of these guys can win anything meaningful in the next decade as well, since teams are drafting them high now. But I'm guessing we'll see a continuation of the taller and better signal callers hoisting that Lombardi.

Also and btw I know Caleb is listed as 6'1" but I suspect he's more like 6 foot. He certainly has a chance to do something at this level but just saying he's no sure thing. We'll see though.

He's not small he is 6'1" he is the same height as Jalen Hurts and isn't Stafford 6'3"?

 

[oldnotdead]

Calm down Malibu. Floyd is gone because they wanted a JACK that could drop into coverage and another LB replaces him in the rush. It happened more often than you seem to realize. Everyone's production was down because of the Fangio-style read / react defense Morris installed. The secondary was playing 10 yds off the LOS conceding short passes. So why do you need a superstar CB when you are going to play that way? Why do you think Ramsey requested a trade and the same with Wagner?

Now they have the players to change things up. They now can play with a SAM and a WIL both if they choose to. That changes a lot of things in terms of maintaining contain on mobile QBs and quick short passes. The defensive scheme is only half the issue, it's how that scheme is played that is in fact more important. You act like Long and Hill were superstars. They are mediocre DBs both extremely scheme dependent. Young has the talent to be an upgrade to Floyd, now add Hampton and Mathis. All this is not to say that Turner won't play an important role either. Some draft evaluators call him a steal.

Fact the OL is going to be better. That should improve the run attack and passing attack. The offense is basically intact only improved. Better OL, deeper RB room, and Nacua probably is going to take Skowronek's YWR snaps and be an upgrade.

Their kicking game looks like it could be improved and send us back to the days of Zuerlein and Hekker in their prime. KIckers are weapons too. I think Xavier Smith is probably going to be the return specialist, which is why the Rams were confident in letting Powell walk. Smith has an afterburner and can really run. His slowest 40 times were in the low 4.4 with two at his pro day timed at 4.3. The Rams should be able to play a field position game with their special teams.

The team hasn't taken a single snap and you are dooming and glooming. Geez dude calm down. Lets see how the coaching staff puts all the pieces together before we criticize.

 

[Malibu]

Calm down Malibu. Floyd is gone because they wanted a JACK that could drop into coverage and another LB replaces him in the rush. It happened more often than you seem to realize. Everyone's production was down because of the Fangio-style read / react defense Morris installed. The secondary was playing 10 yds off the LOS conceding short passes. So why do you need a superstar CB when you are going to play that way? Why do you think Ramsey requested a trade and the same with Wagner?

Now they have the players to change things up. They now can play with a SAM and a WIL both if they choose to. That changes a lot of things in terms of maintaining contain on mobile QBs and quick short passes. The defensive scheme is only half the issue, it's how that scheme is played that is in fact more important. You act like Long and Hill were superstars. They are mediocre DBs both extremely scheme dependent. Young has the talent to be an upgrade to Floyd, now add Hampton and Mathis. All this is not to say that Turner won't play an important role either. Some draft evaluators call him a steal.

Fact the OL is going to be better. That should improve the run attack and passing attack. The offense is basically intact only improved. Better OL, deeper RB room, and Nacua probably is going to take Skowronek's YWR snaps and be an upgrade.

Their kicking game looks like it could be improved and send us back to the days of Zuerlein and Hekker in their prime. KIckers are weapons too. I think Xavier Smith is probably going to be the return specialist, which is why the Rams were confident in letting Powell walk. Smith has an afterburner and can really run. His slowest 40 times were in the low 4.4 with two at his pro day timed at 4.3. The Rams should be able to play a field position game with their special teams.

The team hasn't taken a single snap and you are dooming and glooming. Geez dude calm down. Lets see how the coaching staff puts all the pieces together before we criticize.

Seriously you are high to think this new lineup is is remotely as good currently as opposed to last year's line up. What Floyd lacked in drop coverage he clearly made up for in sacks and run defense. There was no one close to his sack output and now there is way less and it's not even close. Combine that with his run stopping ability your argument is super weak.

Now if you want to say this is a remodeling year and down the line the 14 rookies and 26 UDFAs might pan out maybe there's an argument but currently this defense will be a massive disaster and I will come back and say I told you so. On its face it should be absolutely obvious especially as I keep pointing out our secondary is extraordinarily weak and with no run support and less sacks than last year it's a disaster and you know it. You talk schemes to your blue in the face I talk players and if you think there is a remote comparison to Ramsey, Floyd, Hill, Gaines, AShawn, Wagner, etc that's just false and far fetched.

I always say in each of my posts the Offense should be better minus LT but we will average 24 ppg hopefully with a healthy OL and Avila being a upgrade.

As far as STs go take a look at our new ST Coordinators record it is middle of the pack. He seems like a journeyman who will survive in the NFL but will not make his mark I hope I am wrong. As for all the new players they are rookies until proven wrong so they are a complete mystery. The Offense is the only area on the team that has a readable evaluation the other 2 essentially have a bunch of rookies and second year players minus Jones, Fuller, AD.

The only thing we have going for us this season is Sean McVay imo tied for 2nd best HC coach in the league with Reid.

 

[Mackeyser]

Xavier Smith, WR FL A&M

Part of our udfa class

 

[Cjcinec]

or maybe you’re still raging about him painting his finger nails? Idk?

Not really a big deal to me but if you’re gonna paint your nails with profanity towards your opponent you best back it up. Caleb gets smaller in the big games. That’s just a fact baby!

 

[Riverumbbq]

My best current guess is 7 - 11, could be as low as 6 - 12.
Someone ask this question again after game 3 of the regular season, it's really much too early at this point. Our coaches alone boost us from a 2-3 win season to keeping games closer with a pretty seasoned offense. I don't really expect our defense to become much until 2024. Just stay healthy guys ...

 

[fanotodd]

We will compete and we will lose a lot with our young squad. I'm not putting a number on it but it wouldn't surprise me to pick in the top 5 next draft. I think too many are expecting too much from our young guns.

Especially early/right away.
The schedule did the Rams no favors by pitting this young roster against some of the top teams in the league to open the season. 2023 could be over before these young guys blink.

OTOH, there are several 1rst, 2nd and 3rd year players I’m excited to see and think they will be significant contributors in the second half of the season.

Then there’s reality in the NFL. Every year sees a few playoff teams displaced for new playoff teams. What would that take? A few breaks in the beginning of the season? If the 9ers are playing that dumpster fire of a QB early, the new bengal secondary gets torched by Stafford and company, and the seahawks can’t run the football on opening day…

I don’t see our division opponents taking us lightly so early in the season, but I can easily see teams like the bengals and eagles looking ahead/past us and that’s exactly how a team lays a stinker.

There’s always a chance. That’s why they play the games.

 

[Corbin]

Not really a big deal to me but if you’re gonna paint your nails with profanity towards your opponent you best back it up. Caleb gets smaller in the big games. That’s just a fact baby!

The level of pettiness and your logic is blowing my mind.

Caleb is the next Heisman bust. Caleb= Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. But he’s already a bigger diva. He gets his nails painted before every game. No thanks on that loser.

Yeah? Not a big deal to you huh? The hypocritical non sensical takes are like listening to Skip Bayless.

The concept of tanking for a system QB who’s a couple of inches taller than Kyler Murray is ridiculous. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray > Caleb Williams.

Omg he’s 6’1”! What a midget?

 

[El Chapo Jr]

Especially early/right away.
The schedule did the Rams no favors by pitting this young roster against some of the top teams in the league to open the season. 2023 could be over before these young guys blink.

OTOH, there are several 1rst, 2nd and 3rd year players I’m excited to see and think they will be significant contributors in the second half of the season.

Then there’s reality in the NFL. Every year sees a few playoff teams displaced for new playoff teams. What would that take? A few breaks in the beginning of the season? If the 9ers are playing that dumpster fire of a QB early, the new bengal secondary gets torched by Stafford and company, and the seahawks can’t run the football on opening day…

I don’t see our division opponents taking us lightly so early in the season, but I can easily see teams like the bengals and eagles looking ahead/past us and that’s exactly how a team lays a stinker.

There’s always a chance. That’s why they play the games.

Man I don't think anyone will take us lightly but we'll be at a talent plus experience deficit for sure. Other factors such as injury to some of those teams can give us a better chance. I personally don't think it'll happen but that's why I'm watching with no expectations whatsoever. I'm also excited to see who will show up for us at these games and prove they are keepers. I'm definitely rooting my ass off for our Rams regardless of what I think the outcome will be.

 

[fanotodd]

In what uninverse are some of you guys in? You all must be up late huffing paint seriously.

Just study our defense we have 8 new starters and projected worst secondary in the NFL 5- of top 6 players in the secondary are gone our #1 cb is a rookie last year with 5 games under his belt. We struggled at OLB now Floyd is gone. We had a solid run d now everyone except AD is gone.

Our defense will be historically bad like giving up 30+ ppg Detroit Lions bad.

Our Offense will be fine but it will not be on the field enough to catch up and surpass the amount of points our defense gives up.

BTW just because we had 14 draft picks it doesn't mean many of them will be good or a difference maker.

Lastly we have a completely new ST unit from coach to 4 new players that's nuts.

My prediction is 2-4 wins and that decision rests solely on how good of a HC we have. Otherswise most coaches would have zero to 2 wins with this team.

As like everyone wants I hope I am surprised.

Sadly, you make several excellent points.
Fuck my optimism. I’m gonna get drunk and convince myself I’ve always really been a lions fan.

 

[Malibu]

Sadly, you make several excellent points.
Fuck my optimism. I’m gonna get drunk and convince myself I’ve always really been a lions fan.

Like everyone else here (the diehards) I will be rooting for the Rams. Even though my expectations have been tamped down which actually is a good thing. The drastic removal of so much talent in terms of a remodel for the future has given me a realistic expectation for 2023. If we exceed that all the better but if we win 2- 4 games I will not get down because of the GM/HC FA conduct this offseason. Just imagine we acquired a couple solid mid level players and then we all had hopes of sneaking into the last spot in the playoffs and when reality sets in and it finally after game 8-10 that we are not close everyone including myself would be really upset. Now because we did not go that route there are no expectations so anything above 4 wins is an okay season. Doesn't sound optimistic yet honestly it is because we are moving forward for the future. The next big key to long term success imo is 2 things: First some of these draft picks & UDFAs being nice surprises and secondly getting a superstar long-term franchise QB to hold down the fort for the next 10 years after the 2024 season and if those 2 things become reality we as an organization and fan base will be a very happy for a long time to come.

 

[fanotodd]

Malibu:
Excellent post again.
For me, there are two things at work here.
1) this roster has actually been churned over TWICE (including the QB) since McVay arrived and the Rams went to the SB with both “teams”. This will be 3rd time and, you’re right, it will require a new QB. That’s the big picture I’m seeing and I don’t see why I should doubt the org now.
2) in the immediate, I see opening up 2023 vs the seahawks and 9ers. Going 0-2 in the division to start the season would dampen spirits; however, finding a way to steal just one of those games keeps the Rams relevant and “in the hunt” for several more weeks.
From there, who knows?

Do I think the Rams can do that? Of course.
Do I think they will? Entirely different question and we are back to your analysis. At the very least, it will be tough sledding for an undersized and inexperienced defense.

 

[Tano]

Not really a big deal to me but if you’re gonna paint your nails with profanity towards your opponent you best back it up. Caleb gets smaller in the big games. That’s just a fact baby!

Gets smaller in the big games - he helped USC score 42 points against Utah in the first game and 45 points against TCU - I don't consider that being smaller (their defense sucked last year for them to lose those 2 games)

As to the second Utah game, he re-injured his hamstring in the first half and had a horrible second half when it tightened up - he shouldn't have played in the second half

The only game where he scored less than 20 points was against Oregon State and that was not a very big game. Important but not big.

USC scored 30 or more points in 12 of the 14 games 38 or more points in 11 out of 14 games and 41 or more points in 10 out of 14 games

 

[Merlin]

We won 5 games in 2022 with a revolving door collection on the OL and without Stafford for much of the season. So I don't understand how anyone thinks 2-4 wins is a "reasonable" expectation for 2023.

I have no problem calling something what I think it is, even if it's a poor roster. And this roster is not a contender. But they're also not a roster that you can expect to win 2 games. Not without an epic amount of injuries.

 

[Tano]

We won 5 games in 2022 with a revolving door collection on the OL and without Stafford for much of the season. So I don't understand how anyone thinks 2-4 wins is a "reasonable" expectation for 2023.

I have no problem calling something what I think it is, even if it's a poor roster. And this roster is not a contender. But they're also not a roster that you can expect to win 2 games. Not without an epic amount of injuries.

That's why I say 6 games plus or minus 3 (3 games only if we have stupid injuries again)

 

[Malibu]

That's why I say 6 games plus or minus 3 (3 games only if we have stupid injuries again)

I think it comes down to posters looking at the starting lineup on defense and stop pretending we will win many games. Focus in on the starting CBs and safeties then drop down to the OLBs the take a gander at our NT situation. AD and Jones are 2 of 11. Remember Jones also had Wagner now he's gone. It will be so brutal it won't be funny. Just everyone wait until all the flame throwing hatred comes on a daily basis during the season regarding how bad the defense is.

BTW this is not an indictment of the defenses long term future just in 2023 because of all the rookies/2nd year/UDFAs players starting on defense.

 

[Wisconsinram]

I hope to be proven wrong, but I'm more in line with Malibu on this. I see a max win total of 6 or so with the current roster. A Kupp injury early and we'll be lucky to reach half of that.
I'm on board with the approach our front office is taking and am preparing for a rough year ahead with an eye on the future. There are 3 very solid qb's coming out this year and I suspect we'll be in play for one of them.
Again, am hoping for the best and want to be optimistic, but I'm afraid we just have so many holes and lack depth.

 

[Merlin]

There are 3 very solid qb's coming out this year and I suspect we'll be in play for one of them.

I'd be very surprised if we're picking early enough to be in the QB mix. But I agree the nice thing is if the worst happens and we get a ton of injuries again plus the young players all shit the bed (which is what will be needed to only win a few games) it's a good year to pick high.