Covid 19 thread

[FaulkSF]

Yep, people are ignorant so they have to be treated like children. A lockdown is coming within a week if you ask me.

Saw the humvees transported by rail this morning. Most of us should not be surprised that our Guard is putting themselves at risk of exposure to protect the health and safety of the American public.

 

[ScotsRam]

I’m really sorry to hear that, hope things aren’t too bad for you and your mum.

Big shout out to @ScotsRam working in the medical industry, top work son.

I'm not a clinician, the guys and gals on the frontline have it really bad. They are asking us to help out with night shifts on the covid wards (helping with admin to support the ward) so that will be something when that starts.

 

[ozarkram]

I hesitate too post this for several reasons. The main reason being I don't want to add to the panic. To this point I had resigned myself to, most of us are going to get this virus but I hadn't thought about it much beyond that. Until last night. I work on a military base. What I do there is not Top Secret or anything but it is important I believe. I am in constant contact with the public (active duty,guard, reserve,families, foreign troops etc) Yesterday the base went to health protection Bravo. Which in a nut shell means the base has been compromised but the risk is low. Now of course as in any situation like this rumors are flying most of which I ignore. Last night I was talking with my second in command who is in constant contact with garrison command. She ask me what scared me about this situation I told her my feelings on the subject. She listened to me then said " I will tell you what scares me. They are building tent cities on the base." Now I have no inside information and this may just be the next prudent step but I found it quite unsettling. I do believe the information is accurate but what the end game is I don't know.

 

[fearsomefour]

I hesitate too post this for several reasons. The main reason being I don't want to add to the panic. To this point I had resigned myself to, most of us are going to get this virus but I hadn't thought about it much beyond that. Until last night. I work on a military base. What I do there is not Top Secret or anything but it is important I believe. I am in constant contact with the public (active duty,guard, reserve,families, foreign troops etc) Yesterday the base went to health protection Bravo. Which in a nut shell means the base has been compromised but the risk is low. Now of course as in any situation like this rumors are flying most of which I ignore. Last night I was talking with my second in command who is in constant contact with garrison command. She ask me what scared me about this situation I told her my feelings on the subject. She listened to me then said " I will tell you what scares me. They are building tent cities on the base." Now I have no inside information and this may just be the next prudent step but I found it quite unsettling. I do believe the information is accurate but what the end game is I don't know.

Logic would tell us it has been here for months.
By the time the Chinese identified it (I’m sure before they went public with it) I’m sure months had gone by. How many people had it there? Tens of thousands?
International travel etc. It has been here.
I’m sure it has been here for months.
This is probably the second round of infections. Many pandemics including Spanish flu (which had three rounds of infection) the second round was the most serious and deadly.
Add in the fact that some people supposedly show no symptoms but are contagious and it has likely been wide spread.
About had my office was sick late last year with symptoms that were sort of cold like but without all the runny nose stuff. Had a dry cough that lasted weeks. With mine I had a few days with a fever that came and went a couple of times a day and the dry cough that lasted about three weeks.
My mother had the same thing. Feeling worn down with some body soreness, dry cough that went on and on. She has COPD and ended up in the hospital on a ventilator for a couple of days.
Was this Covid? Is there more than one strain? Who knows?
The tent city thing is very disconcerting.
Certainly feeds the paranoia monster of anyone that doesn’t trust the government.....which is anyone with sense in my opinion.
But at the end of the day, what can an individual do? Not fuck all.
As testing expands the number of cases will widely expand. No surprise there.
Have a package of disinfectant wipes I bought months ago....says on the package, “Effective against cold virus caused by coronavirus”. Thought that was interesting.
Are the tent cities likely based on responses to previous pandemics? You can find old photos during the Spanish Flu with hundreds and hundreds of beds lined up in make shift facilities.
Can people be infected more than once?
More than one strain?
A lot we are not being told for sure.
Strange times.

 

[-X-]

I hesitate too post this for several reasons. The main reason being I don't want to add to the panic. To this point I had resigned myself to, most of us are going to get this virus but I hadn't thought about it much beyond that. Until last night. I work on a military base. What I do there is not Top Secret or anything but it is important I believe. I am in constant contact with the public (active duty,guard, reserve,families, foreign troops etc) Yesterday the base went to health protection Bravo. Which in a nut shell means the base has been compromised but the risk is low. Now of course as in any situation like this rumors are flying most of which I ignore. Last night I was talking with my second in command who is in constant contact with garrison command. She ask me what scared me about this situation I told her my feelings on the subject. She listened to me then said " I will tell you what scares me. They are building tent cities on the base." Now I have no inside information and this may just be the next prudent step but I found it quite unsettling. I do believe the information is accurate but what the end game is I don't know.

Interesting. I’ve done a lot of reading on this situation, and looked at all the stats, and even farmed some Nobel prize winning recipients’ thoughts on the math regarding this. On the surface, the panic and over preparedness surrounding this is not proportional to the threat. Let me say that again. On the surface. Farr’s law suggests this thing will end sooner than anyone expects since we’ve already seen the peak in China (if you believe their reporting).

There’s also the fact that the media’s initial projections for total number of people dead was way way way over the top. That probably caused a lot of the initial panic.

Finally, there was not a similar response to the h1n1 Virus Just a decade ago. None of what we are seeing now happened then. 12,000+ people died in the U.S.,, and it didn’t come close to feeling like the apocalyptic event that it does now. it may sound like a tinfoil hat statement, but this almost feels like a test run for something much much bigger. Or it could just be the way society is now. We are so oversensitve to aggression, in every form, that the response has to match the PERCEIVED level of the threat. I don’t know man. There’s just something really “off” about this whole thing.

 

[ozarkram]

Interesting. I’ve done a lot of reading on this situation, and looked at all the stats, and even farmed some Nobel prize winning recipients’ thoughts on the math regarding this. On the surface, the panic and over preparedness surrounding this is not proportional to the threat. Let me say that again. On the surface. Farr’s law suggests this thing will end sooner than anyone expects since we’ve already seen the peak in China (if you believe their reporting).

There’s also the fact that the media’s initial projections for total number of people dead was way way way over the top. That probably caused a lot of the initial panic.

Finally, there was not a similar response to the h1n1 Virus Just a decade ago. None of what we are seeing now happened then. 12,000+ people died in the U.S.,, and it didn’t come close to feeling like the apocalyptic event that it does now. it may sound like a tinfoil hat statement, but this almost feels like a test run for something much much bigger. Or it could just be the way society is now. We are so oversensitve to aggression, in every form, that the response has to match the PERCEIVED level of the threat. I don’t know man. There’s just something really “off” about this whole thing.

This has pretty much been my take from the the beginning. What the hell is going on. Why is everyone going apeshit. Are the nukes in the air. I mean come on. But I am seeing the panic up close and personal. Something isn't right about this whole mess. I know that's conspiracy theory thinking but I am at a loss as to why grown people are going insane.

 

[12intheBox]

The death rate for H1N1 was .02%

What it is for this is a rotating target - and we may never really know what it is because we don’t have tests to determine how many people get it.

I have seen numbers that suggest between .5% and 4%. Even at only .5%, that is a shitload of dead people.

 

[-X-]

The death rate for H1N1 was .02%

What it is for this is a rotating target - and we may never really know what it is because we don’t have tests to determine how many people get it.

I have seen numbers that suggest between .5% and 4%. Even at only .5%, that is a shitload of dead people.

Are you basing that on a 100% contraction rate? The full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not get tested and therefore won’t be identified. Those cases can’t be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent cases.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

This has pretty much been my take from the the beginning. What the hell is going on. Why is everyone going apeshit. Are the nukes in the air. I mean come on. But I am seeing the panic up close and personal. Something isn't right about this whole mess. I know that's conspiracy theory thinking but I am at a loss as to why grown people are going insane.

Yeah
I could see if there were bodies strewn on the streets but I haven’t seen that - and you know if there were bodies strewn in the streets there would be pics everywhere
no bodies
The total sick couldn’t even fill that soccer stadium in Carson Ca
I think it has to do with how people live. And what people watch on TV. I mean you got post apocalyptic shit from Hunger Games to The Walking Dead rammed down peoples faces for a decade + now, then the shit they read on the internet, it’s all primed for people to go apeshit

 

[12intheBox]

Are you basing that on a 100% contraction rate? The full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not get tested and therefore won’t be identified. Those cases can’t be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent cases.

I don’t pretend to know the methodology - but generally, I trust the scientific community. Like I said, the actual mortality rate for Coronavirus will probably never be agreed upon because of the factors you mentioned.

Still, we are at almost 12,000 dead right now worldwide and we haven’t even really gotten going in the US.

Im of the mindset that this is such a blow to the economy that they wouldn’t be recommending these measures worldwide unless science knew how scary this was. I don’t buy the conspiracy that the governments of the world would agree to tank the worlds economies for anything other than actual large scale danger.

 

[ozarkram]

Yeah
I could see if there were bodies strewn on the streets but I haven’t seen that - and you know if there were bodies strewn in the streets there would be pics everywhere
no bodies
The total sick couldn’t even fill that soccer stadium in Carson Ca
I think it has to do with how people live. And what people watch on TV. I mean you got post apocalyptic shit from Hunger Games to The Walking Dead rammed down peoples faces for a decade + now, then the shit they read on the internet, it’s all primed for people to go apeshit

OK.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

OK.

You don’t need to patronize anyone on this thread Ozark - i know you think you got the goods on this whole fucking mess but you could dial down the snark

 

[ozarkram]

You don’t need to patronize anyone on this thread Ozark - i know you think you got the goods on this whole fucking mess but you could dial down the snark

Wow my apologies wont happen again.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

Wow my apologies wont happen again.

Ok

 

[12intheBox]

Yeah
I could see if there were bodies strewn on the streets but I haven’t seen that - and you know if there were bodies strewn in the streets there would be pics everywhere
no bodies
The total sick couldn’t even fill that soccer stadium in Carson Ca
I think it has to do with how people live. And what people watch on TV. I mean you got post apocalyptic shit from Hunger Games to The Walking Dead rammed down peoples faces for a decade + now, then the shit they read on the internet, it’s all primed for people to go apeshit

wouldn’t waiting until there are bodies strewn on the streets be way too late? It’s contagious - like really contagious.

 

[-X-]

I don’t pretend to know the methodology - but generally, I trust the scientific community. Like I said, the actual mortality rate for Coronavirus will probably never be agreed upon because of the factors you mentioned.

Still, we are at almost 12,000 dead right now worldwide and we haven’t even really gotten going in the US.

Im of the mindset that this is such a blow to the economy that they wouldn’t be recommending these measures worldwide unless science knew how scary this was. I don’t buy the conspiracy that the governments of the world would agree to tank the worlds economies for anything other than actual large scale danger.

Yeah I’m not on the conspiracy train either. I just know that all viruses start, rise, peak, flatten, and dissipate. All of them. And with the advances in immunology, micro biology, chemistry, etc. that we have now, I don’t understand the disproportionate response to this one. That’s all. While deadly, it’s no more deadly than the flu in how it affects the immuno compromised, the elderly, and the already infirmed. I understand that it’s a new strain, and that nobody has antibodies in them for it, but again; it doesn’t take long to develop a vaccine in this day and age. I mean I get the desire to mitigate the risk of exposure, but I don’t get people’s desire to hoard everything in sight as if to prepare for the end of days. Especially when you consider how the healthy are either not affected at all, affected only a little, or get sick and get well within a matter of days. It’s just weird.

it must also be weird not seeing hordes of people up there in Asheville lately. That place is usually a mad house 24/7. I do like the decrease in traffic lately though. Makes me think that Thanos was not such a bad guy after all. He just saw a problem and tried to solve it. I know that sounds dark, twisted, and insensitive, but let’s be real; everybody thinks there are too many people now.

 

[12intheBox]

I’m for thinning out the population too, @-X- as long as it’s the right people.

 

[Dieter the Brock]

wouldn’t waiting until there are bodies strewn on the streets be way too late? It’s contagious - like really contagious.

My point is just that this is a perfect storm of hypochondria and neuroticism. It’s really contagious yes, but so is irrational fear being stoked 24 hours by the media

Granted if we had some sort of exit strategy to all this people would feel a whole lot better about how this will shake out. But there is zero plan in place to give anyone hope

 

[fearsomefour]

Interesting. I’ve done a lot of reading on this situation, and looked at all the stats, and even farmed some Nobel prize winning recipients’ thoughts on the math regarding this. On the surface, the panic and over preparedness surrounding this is not proportional to the threat. Let me say that again. On the surface. Farr’s law suggests this thing will end sooner than anyone expects since we’ve already seen the peak in China (if you believe their reporting).

There’s also the fact that the media’s initial projections for total number of people dead was way way way over the top. That probably caused a lot of the initial panic.

Finally, there was not a similar response to the h1n1 Virus Just a decade ago. None of what we are seeing now happened then. 12,000+ people died in the U.S.,, and it didn’t come close to feeling like the apocalyptic event that it does now. it may sound like a tinfoil hat statement, but this almost feels like a test run for something much much bigger. Or it could just be the way society is now. We are so oversensitve to aggression, in every form, that the response has to match the PERCEIVED level of the threat. I don’t know man. There’s just something really “off” about this whole thing.

Speaking of tin foil hats.....
Look at interest rates (going negative soon?).....debt in the Feds books.....national debt.....
The Fed has been buying billions in mortgage backed securities (yep, the same thing that crashed 2008) over the last year plus. Bonds are in a huge bubble.
The real elephant in the room.....lack of liquidity in banking.
What do you need to justify a reset or a new system? A crash.

 

[Merlin]

I hesitate too post this for several reasons. The main reason being I don't want to add to the panic. To this point I had resigned myself to, most of us are going to get this virus but I hadn't thought about it much beyond that. Until last night. I work on a military base. What I do there is not Top Secret or anything but it is important I believe. I am in constant contact with the public (active duty,guard, reserve,families, foreign troops etc) Yesterday the base went to health protection Bravo. Which in a nut shell means the base has been compromised but the risk is low. Now of course as in any situation like this rumors are flying most of which I ignore. Last night I was talking with my second in command who is in constant contact with garrison command. She ask me what scared me about this situation I told her my feelings on the subject. She listened to me then said " I will tell you what scares me. They are building tent cities on the base." Now I have no inside information and this may just be the next prudent step but I found it quite unsettling. I do believe the information is accurate but what the end game is I don't know.

I'm guessing the tents are in anticipation of quarantine requirements, so that they'll have the facilities to contain things if the spread spikes on the base.

Honestly the US bases are a great place to be during something like this. I know you commute, but still. They tend to do a really good job given all the training military receive in CBR, and are well prepared to handle things.

Today's US mortality rate is 1.1% btw, so it isn't spiking or anything which is good. Really the biggest threat to us right now is the market crashing and food distribution falling apart. I really hope they're keeping a close eye on those things.