Covid 19 thread

[Mojo Ram]

Lol, what movie is that? I know that shot dammit.

 

[-X-]

Lol, what movie is that? I know that shot dammit.

Only the best 80's movie ever made.
Three O'Clock High.

I need to watch it again. It's been about a year since I've seen it.

 

[Mojo Ram]

Only the best 80's movie ever made.
Three O'Clock High.

I need to watch it again. It's been about a year since I've seen it.

So do i now. Its been decades.

 

[oldnotdead]

I crossed the border today to see my son. He works at a restaurant in Carlsbad and got furloughed when it closed for a month due to the virus. Anyway, I use the Sentri lanes in San Ysidro and the pickup in front of me had a shell over the bed. When CBP opened the back there were cases of TP packed in the entire bed. He's not supposed to bring cargo through the Sentri lanes but also he initially said he had nothing to declare. The agent said that he was taking them across to sell to the TP to crazed people who would pay about 3 times what he paid in TJ. Apparently he did it yesterday with just a couple of cases and sold them for like $3/roll in Del Mar.

Worse yet I get home in Popotla and my neighbor (30 something American) said her brother works at Walmart. He said people are buying cases of cat litter....you guessed it, to make people boxes for when the water goes off and they don't have to use their drinking water to flush.

Geez, what insanity. If things get that bad crapping will be the least of their worries.

 

[12intheBox]

3 o clock high totally holds up. My kids loved it.

One would think that staying at home is like the easiest call to arms that our world could ask of us but I’m already going stir crazy.

 

[kurtfaulk]

VIDEO: Couple buys out Lake Country Save-On-Foods’ entire meat section

A short video of a couple buying out the entire meat section of a Save-On-Foods in Lake Country has drawn the ire of the general public.

www.kelownanow.com

again, the stores fault. how do they not have a limit on purchases of the same item?

there are arseholes everywhere. the stores need to stop them from being arseholes because arseholes only know how to act like arseholes.

.

 

[CeeZar]

This thread is 3 weeks old. Its interesting to read the first page or two. Things sure do move fast.

I wonder what we will all be saying 3 weeks from now.

 

[den-the-coach]

I wonder what we will all be saying 3 weeks from now.

Hopefully we're all still posting 3 weeks from now.

 

[Akrasian]

This thread is 3 weeks old. Its interesting to read the first page or two. Things sure do move fast.

I wonder what we will all be saying 3 weeks from now.

"Greetings from the last survivor on Earth"?

 

[RamFan503]

I hadn’t, I’ll check it out! I have seen the photo, but a science and space thread is happier for me! Haha

How could any thread make you happier than this one?

 

[RamFan503]

Only the best 80's movie ever made.
Three O'Clock High.

I need to watch it again. It's been about a year since I've seen it.

He's been in another great movie. Makes for great quarantine viewing with the wife.

 

[thirteen28]

COVID-19: the unwarranted panic – Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

behindtheblack.com

Four more stories today indicate once again that the worldwide panic over the corona/COVID-19/Wuhan virus is strongly unwarranted:

• Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea
• Lower death rate estimates for coronavirus, especially for non-elderly, provides hope
• 86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
• A review of the disease on the confined Diamond Princess

The first report, from the science journal Science, provides an update on the situation in South Korea, where testing for the virus has been the most thorough of any nation in the world and where, because of that extensive testing, has shown the death rate has turned out to be far lower than the preliminary statistics have suggested. Out of a population of 50 million, slightly more than 8,000 have been infected, with only 81 dying. This is a death rate of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so. And like the flu, most of those deaths have been among the elderly.

The numbers there are now dropping, indicating that the disease might have run its course without causing a catastrophic disaster. There is still a chance it could break out again, but the data suggests otherwise.

Moreover, South Korea controlled the situation without any strong-arm authoritarian tactics, as seen in China and as becoming popular here in the formerly free U.S.

“South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University.

It sadly appears that South Koreans might value freedom more than too many of today’s Americans.

The second article describes research from Wuhan in Hubei province in China, reconfirming the South Korean data. There it appears the death rate was 1.4%, only slightly higher than in South Korea. And once again, the death rate is mostly confined to the older population with already existing health issues, like the flu:

The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

The third report also confirms what the first two studies suggest, that a large percentage of those who get the virus show no symptoms at all, indicating that the death rate is even lower.

The final link is to me the most significant, as it describes in detail the situation that unfolded on the cruise ship Diamond Princess when coronavirus was discovered there and the entire ship was placed under strict quarantine. In a sense the ship was a perfect controlled experiment for determining the infection and death rate of this virus.

One would have thought, if this virus is so virulent and deadly as the press and politicians and too many panicky Americans are claiming, that everyone on the ship would have gotten badly sick, and many many would have died. Instead, 83% of the passengers and crew never got the disease at all, despite being closely confined with infected people for weeks. This despite the fact that the ship’s population was heavily skewed towards older people. In fact, older people were just as likely to not get infected as younger people.

The total number of deaths was 7, all over seventy years of age, producing a death rate of 1.2%, once again in the same range as South Korea and China.

I repeat: Any disease like this requires a rational aggressive and focused response. We can’t ignore it. People need to voluntarily self-quarantine if they feel sick, or if they have older and sick relatives living with them. We should also wash our hands regularly, and avoid unnecessary physical contact with many other individuals.

At the same time, we mustn’t waste our energies doing things that are unnecessary, foolish, or downright counter-productive, such as releasing entire prison populations into the general population.

We also should be outraged by politicians who are using this situation not to deal with it but to impose their pet totalitarian rule over the population, such as passing entirely irrelevant gun bans and shutting down businesses willy-nilly and imprisoning everyone in their homes.

These actions will do little to ease the epidemic. Instead, they might worsen the situation by causing panic (as they have apparently done). Panic is not what this situation warrants. Instead it needs a calm rational response, something that only civilized rational people can give it.

Are we that? Watching what is happening I must sadly say I have my doubts.

 

[…..]

Does anyone think that the Chinese and Koreans have elevated levels of discipline and as a result may be lowering their long term exposure to the pandemic?

I recognized at an early age that oriental students were always way smarter than other kids. They were quieter, more concentrated and task focused, less prone to distraction. I always felt that there was something within their society that made them that way.

I have this nagging feeling that we Americans are not disciplined enough to achieve the same results fighting this virus off as the Chinese and Koreans have been.

Am I alone in this opinion?

 

[Merlin]

Does anyone think that the Chinese and Koreans have elevated levels of discipline and as a result may be lowering their long term exposure to the pandemic?

I recognized at an early age that oriental students were always way smarter than other kids. They were quieter, more concentrated and task focused, less prone to distraction. I always felt that there was something within their society that made them that way.

I have this nagging feeling that we Americans are not disciplined enough to achieve the same results fighting this virus off as the Chinese and Koreans have been.

Am I alone in this opinion?

I get what you're saying and think it applies a little.

I don't like to get too deep into generalizations, as they can turn bad where you'll realize you're prejudging folks, but in my career in the Navy I had kids coming in from all walks of life (even some from outside the US) and did notice certain trends with kids depending on their background. IMO it was more a social thing, where the way you're raised does really matter in work ethic, sensitivity vs toughness, etc. But genetics does matter and in a mixed group the younger asian kids are more quiet and probably wired that way more than some others genetically.

But in this supercharged age of sensitivity we live in that kind of conversation leads to people losing their fucking minds.

 

[Merlin]

One great thing about living in the midwest now btw... Stores still have stuff. We have gradually stocked our larder and hit the store the other day to get some more canned food and frozen meat and had no problems.

Also it's nice to have good groundwater. Here in the Ozarks the town water system comes out of the springs below the city, which removes the need of getting all crazy with bottled water.

Thinking about taking some of my savings (I keep a very nice chunk locked up in certificate) and buying more stock. Anyone doing that yet?

 

[VegasRam]

But in this supercharged age of sensitivity we live in that kind of conversation leads to people losing their fucking minds.

Except Asians. Quieter and even-keeled.

 

[VegasRam]

@Merlin - My magic number is 18,000 - then I'm jumping in with both feet.

 

[12intheBox]

@Merlin - My magic number is 18,000 - then I'm jumping in with both feet.

18000 is a pretty good mark. It will probably dip a bit lower before all is said and done - but you can never predict the bottom so have a plan and stick to it.

 

[Mackeyser]

COVID-19: the unwarranted panic – Behind The Black – Robert Zimmerman

behindtheblack.com

Four more stories today indicate once again that the worldwide panic over the corona/COVID-19/Wuhan virus is strongly unwarranted:

• Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea
• Lower death rate estimates for coronavirus, especially for non-elderly, provides hope
• 86% of people with coronavirus are walking around undetected, study says
• A review of the disease on the confined Diamond Princess

The first report, from the science journal Science, provides an update on the situation in South Korea, where testing for the virus has been the most thorough of any nation in the world and where, because of that extensive testing, has shown the death rate has turned out to be far lower than the preliminary statistics have suggested. Out of a population of 50 million, slightly more than 8,000 have been infected, with only 81 dying. This is a death rate of 0.9%, higher than the flu’s 0.1% but not horribly so. And like the flu, most of those deaths have been among the elderly.

The numbers there are now dropping, indicating that the disease might have run its course without causing a catastrophic disaster. There is still a chance it could break out again, but the data suggests otherwise.

Moreover, South Korea controlled the situation without any strong-arm authoritarian tactics, as seen in China and as becoming popular here in the formerly free U.S.


It sadly appears that South Koreans might value freedom more than too many of today’s Americans.

The second article describes research from Wuhan in Hubei province in China, reconfirming the South Korean data. There it appears the death rate was 1.4%, only slightly higher than in South Korea. And once again, the death rate is mostly confined to the older population with already existing health issues, like the flu:


The third report also confirms what the first two studies suggest, that a large percentage of those who get the virus show no symptoms at all, indicating that the death rate is even lower.

The final link is to me the most significant, as it describes in detail the situation that unfolded on the cruise ship Diamond Princess when coronavirus was discovered there and the entire ship was placed under strict quarantine. In a sense the ship was a perfect controlled experiment for determining the infection and death rate of this virus.

One would have thought, if this virus is so virulent and deadly as the press and politicians and too many panicky Americans are claiming, that everyone on the ship would have gotten badly sick, and many many would have died. Instead, 83% of the passengers and crew never got the disease at all, despite being closely confined with infected people for weeks. This despite the fact that the ship’s population was heavily skewed towards older people. In fact, older people were just as likely to not get infected as younger people.

The total number of deaths was 7, all over seventy years of age, producing a death rate of 1.2%, once again in the same range as South Korea and China.

I repeat: Any disease like this requires a rational aggressive and focused response. We can’t ignore it. People need to voluntarily self-quarantine if they feel sick, or if they have older and sick relatives living with them. We should also wash our hands regularly, and avoid unnecessary physical contact with many other individuals.

At the same time, we mustn’t waste our energies doing things that are unnecessary, foolish, or downright counter-productive, such as releasing entire prison populations into the general population.

We also should be outraged by politicians who are using this situation not to deal with it but to impose their pet totalitarian rule over the population, such as passing entirely irrelevant gun bans and shutting down businesses willy-nilly and imprisoning everyone in their homes.

These actions will do little to ease the epidemic. Instead, they might worsen the situation by causing panic (as they have apparently done). Panic is not what this situation warrants. Instead it needs a calm rational response, something that only civilized rational people can give it.

Are we that? Watching what is happening I must sadly say I have my doubts.

Some of the leaps of faith in this article are just not right or incomplete. (I don't wanna get into a back and forth. I'm a little panicked. I'm in the highest risk group and woke up symptomatic. Feeling better with hydration including bone broth with cayenne pepper, so that might bias some of my thinking, but my symptoms tend to fluctuate before I succumb so we'll see how I'm doing later today and into tomorrow)

South Korea did MASS testing. What they found is that while the disease affected older populations more, the CARRIER group, the group that was most responsible for transmission was 18-29. 30% of those screened and tested positive were in that 18-29 demo.

So a group of older people with very few young people may not have enough "typhoid marys" to lead to the level of contagion we've seen in China, Italy and Iran.

China issued a BRUTAL quarantine and struggled to contain it.

South Korea did mass testing, got good data and was able to isolate those mostly likely to actually spread the disease. Moreover, by doing this, they've vastly reduced the opportunities for the virus to mutate.

Iran doesn't have the supplies, has an ideal population mix in relatively densely populated areas and they got CLOBBERED.

When looking at models, we much more align with Iran than China or South Korea in that we've not issues brutal quarantine measures nor are we doing mass screenings/testing. I just got an text/email from the VA that nationwide, they've only done 322 tests. That's not a mistake.

So, WILL this be the pandemic that kills many millions?

I dunno. I sure hope not.

However, the way the US is handling it, we're doing next to nothing to legit stop it from being as virulent and as deadly as it might be.

Dodging a high caliber, high velocity bullet doesn't mean that the bullet wasn't deadly. It could have missed for any number of reasons, but those saying that COVID-19 is the flu are just flatly wrong.

And there's no guarantee that we've dodged anything. We're weeks behind Italy and with our population, we may not see where this is headed for another 7-10 days and by then, it's gonna be way too late.

Without panicking, it's better to be comprehensively prepared than caught unaware. The speed that this or something like this can go sideways make a black ice covered highway seem slow in comparison...

 

[OldSchool]