The only reason I could see for drafting a new left tackle would be to save cap space. But an early round rookie left tackle is not guaranteed to play as well as Aleric. Letting him walk is a big risk.
If we are to assume AJ continues to play about the same all the way through the season, nothing like a catastrophic injury occurring, then he is likely to be the most discussed player in the offseason. Most importantly, he will get paid. Why not? He will have proven his ability and will be a great age to be entering a big contract.
Not signing him:
Yes, that’s a gamble and in more ways than one. A 1rst round CB or offensive weapon (WR/TE) might have to be passed up. Those look like needs to me, and though could be addressed in other ways besides draft picks, those alternatives will cost more. Plus, as you stated, we don’t know that a 1rst rounder is gonna pan out as well, at least right away.
Signing him:
The Stafford, Kupp, Havenstein, Higbee window is closing right before our eyes. Higbee might already be at the end. Havenstein is missing more and more time the last 2 seasons. We all see the risk every time Kupp takes the field. Funny, we’re so worried about cashing in on the Stafford window, yet he’s liable to outlast all of those aforementioned players!
I don’t see a way the Rams CANNOT invest in an OT, but “how/what day he’s picked” is the point. With Noteboom a spot starter, but above average backup, he won’t ever be a full time starter again. Too risky. Havenstein is winding down. Somebody has to be in development at the very least. A day three pick was made this year, but is that really enough? IMO, no. Hedge your bets—bring in another body or two. Adding those players to McClendon, and there’s depth. I don’t think it’s unrealistic that Havenstein and Noteboom are on their last contract as a Ram.
Having said all that, now is not the time to be gambling on protecting Stafford’s blind side.