If Only The Rams Had The Pac 12 All Time Leader Passer Already On The Roster

[LesBaker]

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[RAMpage28]

You think that's impressive? The Rams once had a QB that broke hall of fame QB Brett Favre's college records!

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

And Brian Quick might be the next Terrell Owens. Marcus Roberson might be the next Darrelle Revis. Ethan Westbrooks might be the next Michael Strahan. Cody Davis might be the next John Lynch.

But I don't think anyone in their right mind would advocate us acting like we don't have any needs because a young player on this team might shock all of us and end up being good/great.

The Rams need to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Not risk their season on the extremely extremely low odds that Mannion or Keenum are the solution.

As opposed to high odds in this QB class? I think "extremely low" is your opinion and that's alright, we're all entitled to one.

I'm pretty sure we'll all know how the Rams feel about Mannion come Draft day, as for now we really don't know what the heck they're thinking, if they do indeed go QB in the first, it'll kind of suck to me that they wasted a 3rd round pick for a back up QB, they seem to be playing this close to the vest

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

huh?

Duh. I mean Keenum. Brain fart.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

You'll wanna revisit that... Mannion played at Oregon State University which is in the Pac-12.

Unless you were throwing shade, in which case... Carry on.

Meant to say Keenum.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

He sure did @Elmgrovegnome So suck it!! :banana: :shooting: :shocked:

illowfight:Just kidding buddy.

Again, I meant to say Keenum. My bad. Keenum set the NCAA records playing in Houston. I realize Mannion was at Oregon State.

 

[jrry32]

As opposed to high odds in this QB class? I think "extremely low" is your opinion and that's alright, we're all entitled to one.

I'm pretty sure we'll all know how the Rams feel about Mannion come Draft day, as for now we really don't know what the heck they're thinking, if they do indeed go QB in the first, it'll kind of suck to me that they wasted a 3rd round pick for a back up QB, they seem to be playing this close to the vest

No, extremely low is the description of the objective odds of finding a franchise QB in the 3rd round or UDFA. Your odds of finding a franchise QB in the first 15 picks are around 40% to 50%. Your odds of finding a franchise QB in the 3rd round are around 10%. Your odds of finding a franchise QB in UDFA are probably less than 5%.(hard to calculate because it's hard to find the number of UDFA QBs signed by NFL teams over a longer period of time)

When you draft a QB in the 3rd round, your expected return is a backup QB. I expect that the Rams knew what they were getting when they drafted Mannion and were fine with it.

 

[OC--LeftCoast]

I don't have the facts in front of me jrry, but I'd bet anything that the number of starting or even franchise QBs drafted 3rd round an on is way, way over 10%

We can debate this all night, as I stated if you are right, the Rams no doubt will draft a QB 1st round

 

[OldSchool]

Felt like looking it up for the Halibut. QB's drafted in the 3rd round last 10 years.

2015: Garret Grayson INC
Sean Mannion INC

2014: None
2013: Mike Glennon - Backup
2012:Russel Wilson- Starter
Nick Foles - Backup
2011: Ryan Mallet - Backup(out of the league?)
2010: Colt McCoy- Backup
2009: None
2008: Kevin O'Connell- Backup(out of league?)
2007: Trent Edwards- Mixed (started for Buffalo for 2 years. Was in the league for 6 years and only active for 38 games. Largely a backup after failed 2 years as a starter)
2006: Charlie Whitehurst- Backup (started 9 games in 8 years for four teams)
Brodie Croyle- Backup (started a few games out of the league after 4 years)

So just a quick study and in the last 10 years we've had 11 QB's drafted in the 3rd round. One is a starter, two were starters but have spent as many games as backups. The other 8 are backups most are out of the league with minimal impact. At best count Foles and Edwards as half a starter because they each did start but couldn't hold on to their jobs. So I'd say 2 of 11 or 18.2%. Number looks big but when you count that only 2 QB's in 10 years have had any kind of success as a 3rd round QB that's not exactly encouraging.

 

[OldSchool]

Just for the heck of it going backwards through the draft lists I counted 26 QB's taken in those same 10 drafts. I counted 13 are still starters. Though that could be 14 if Sanchez starts for Denver.

 

[tavian]

The Pac 12 has certainly been a quarterback factory over the years, with some all-time greats (Elway, Jim Plunkett, Aaron Rogers, Troy Aikman) guys that have had some personal, or team success, (Drew Bledsoe, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Jake Plummer, Pat Haden) guys with great college careers that flamed out, (Ryan Leaf, Mark Sanchez?, Matt Barkley, Matt Leinert, Foles? Kyle Boller, etc.) and current young guys with promise, (Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley, Jared Goff).

I get your point and there is certainly a argument that can be made to that point ,buuut
I think Haden should pretty much be in the flamed out category .cause he sucked.

 

[Roman Snow]

I get your point and there is certainly a argument that can be made to that point ,buuut
I think Haden should pretty much be in the flamed out category .cause he sucked.

I was wondering where you were going with that. Keep in mind I also said "team" success.

 

[jrry32]

I don't have the facts in front of me jrry, but I'd bet anything that the number of starting or even franchise QBs drafted 3rd round an on is way, way over 10%

We can debate this all night, as I stated if you are right, the Rams no doubt will draft a QB 1st round

Here are the numbers:
http://pfref.com/tiny/imODO

I count 3 franchise QBs out of 30.(counted O'Donnell, Schaub, and Wilson as franchise QBs...O'Donnell is arguably not a franchise QB but there's also an argument that both he and Griese were so I split the difference) 3 out of 30 is 10% on the dot. You also have Foles, McCown, Griese, Glennon, etc. as guys that started some games. But I wouldn't call any of those guys "solutions."

If you go beyond the 3rd round (like the total of the 3rd through 7th round), the number drops even more.(to around 5%)

 

[tavian]

I was wondering where you were going with that. Keep in mind I also said "team" success.

yea.except in this case it was team success despite the quarterback play.

 

[Roman Snow]

And Brian Quick might be the next Terrell Owens. Marcus Roberson might be the next Darrelle Revis. Ethan Westbrooks might be the next Michael Strahan. Cody Davis might be the next John Lynch.

But I don't think anyone in their right mind would advocate us acting like we don't have any needs because a young player on this team might shock all of us and end up being good/great.

The Rams need to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Not risk their season on the extremely extremely low odds that Mannion or Keenum are the solution.

Just to be clear. I don't advocate doing NOTHING. I think it would be good to draft another guy with potential to push Mannion for the future spot. Let the cream rise. The competition is good for all. Including starter Keenum.

Now, whether I am out of my mind is another unrelated topic. :huh:

 

[Roman Snow]

You think that's impressive? The Rams once had a QB that broke hall of fame QB Brett Favre's college records!

You think that's impressive? The Rams once drafted a quarterback whose name means: Void, nothing, nada, empty set, Jack Sheet.

 

[RamFan503]

Meant to say Keenum.

And here I thought you were just being cute because it was the Pac 10 when he was playing at OSU.

 

[jrry32]

Just to be clear. I don't advocate doing NOTHING. I think it would be good to draft another guy with potential to push Mannion for the future spot. Let the cream rise. The competition is good for all. Including starter Keenum.

Now, whether I am out of my mind is another unrelated topic. :huh:

Good. I agree.

When should we make the topic on your sanity?

 

[Roman Snow]

Good. I agree.

When should we make the topic on your sanity?

I might go to Off Topic "Like a Boss" looking for that discussion, while some of you may navigate over to "Dumbass of the Day."

 

[A55VA6]

And Brian Quick might be the next Terrell Owens. Marcus Roberson might be the next Darrelle Revis. Ethan Westbrooks might be the next Michael Strahan. Cody Davis might be the next John Lynch.

But I don't think anyone in their right mind would advocate us acting like we don't have any needs because a young player on this team might shock all of us and end up being good/great.

The Rams need to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Not risk their season on the extremely extremely low odds that Mannion or Keenum are the solution.

Perfectly said.