But wouldn't what I pointed out, show that she's looking at thing from a symptoms perspective. Instead of actually a reason or a trend? (Maybe not the best term....but it's the best example I can do w/ my limited vocabulary.....)
Great stuff you are throwing out.
But I do have one question. You are advocating having a higher Yards per attempt and use Seattle as an example. But aren't you arguing against yourself when it's obvious their rushing game sets up their longer downfield attempts. When Lynch is at his best, teams have to bring someone extra down in the box and it leaves their receivers (for the most part...) in man coverages. And in that scenerio teams would certainly push their patterns down the field, taking advantage of making teams cover for longer periods of time. (also Wilson being elusive outside the pocket helps....). A better offensive line that can block the front 7 allows a team to do this as well. If Olines can line up in any formation and run or pass at will either would compliment the other making both be more successful.
I like you were able to put things into perspective as you see them. But I think things work together from both an offensive and defensive perspective where success is obtainable by attacking a weakness. But identifying the weakness is the trick. Both your own....and your opponents. And what works one week is game planned the following one. I think Seattle's (and many other team's ) success was more a symptom, than a rule.
But I love the discussion you have brought forth......
I'm not advocating copying OR not copying the Seattle Seahawks.
I'm trying to make a convincing argument that, teams who average more yards per pass attempt than their defenses allow per pass attempt win more games. The rushing equivalent of the YDS/A differential stat,
does not correlate significantly with Won-Loss records. 6 out of the 9 worst rushing defenses made the playoffs. What else do these stats suggest? If you wish to win in the modern NFL it is more efficient to allocate Salary Cap resources and coaching hires toward establishing superior passing offensive and defensive units.
I found passing YDS/A correlates with won loss record better than any other stat, outside of
out scoring your opponents. This stat enables you look under the hood of your favorite football team. What I call YDS/A passing differential is a stat symptom and has an abstract relationship to winning football. I could have delved deeper into non abstract causation in my article, like play action passes, QB progressions, and shutdown cornerbacks, but I didn't have enough room in my article.
That doesn't mean I haven't pondered why Sam Bradford always has a low passing YDS/A. I wrote an article last year listing 21 possible reasons contributing to Bradford's low pass YDS/A. One of my reasons was how a superior rushing attack opens up a more efficient passing attack. So I agree with you. A great rushing attack and rushing defense doesn't hurt, it helps. But the modern Salary Cap makes it difficult to have your cake and eat it too. For example:
The 49'er and the Seahawks have minimum wage quarterbacks. Both Kaepernick and Russell Wilson can extend plays with their legs easier than Sam Bradford, thus exploiting broken coverage downfield. That ability does wonders for your YDS/A. If I was GM, with unlimited job security,of a modern mythical NFL team.
I would use a
first round draft pick on a quarterback, who has the ability to extend plays with his legs, yet displays ability to pass from the pocket. Why? First round, because I have an extra option year on him. If my QB is good, I have a winning cheap QB for 5 years, and my saved salary cap money, which I can distribute among elite positional players. If I hit the jackpot and draft an elite QB like Peyton Manning, A Rodgers, or Tom Brady, I will of course extend my elite QB's contract. If my QB is not a top 8 QB I would trade him or not resign him after his 5 year contract is up. Then do it all over again. If I have an average QB after 5 years is up, and our team is close to competing for a Super Bowl, then I would franchise tag the QB.
I'm not saying Wilson or Kaepernick are better than Bradford. I am saying the 49er's and Seahawks have a better QB Salary Cap situation than the Rams at present.