Football power index

[Rabid Ram]

FPI makes its predictions for the 2017 NFL season

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Jun 1, 2017

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  Hank GargiuloESPN Analytics

As we edge closer to the start of the NFL season, ESPN's Sports Analytics team has calculated our initial Football Power Index rankings for 2017. In short, a team's FPI rating combines its efficiency ratings on offense, defense and special teams -- based on each unit's expected points added per play -- with the sum of all three squad ratings yielding the overall FPI rating.


We then use these ratings to simulate the NFL season 10,000 times in order to derive a team's chances to win its division, make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl, etc.

Without further delay, here's how FPI sees all 32 teams heading into the 2017 season.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/19504913/fpi-makes-predictions-2017-nfl-season


Numbers aren't looking good in these models however none of this accounts for the human element of the game.

 

[Loyal]

Numbers aren't looking good in these models however none of this accounts for the human element of the game.

No kidding.

The question is whether the coaching staff improvements in coaching many of last years players will result in more wins? Wade Phillips is almost more important of an addition to the team than McVay(imho), and I like McVay a LOT! Of course, this also includes the great assistant coaches they both hired and retaining Coach Bones was a fantastic move by McVay.

6 wins is a very modest improvement over last years 4 wins. I think the defense will take a step forward and be at least a top 10 unit under Phillips. There is no reason why Special Teams will be any less good this year. If both these predictions are true, the offense showing even marginal improvement should bring us 7+ wins, and I expect better than marginal performance after the first few games of the season. Oline:
Whitworth-Saffold-Sullivan-Havenstein-Brown
*This line has a VERY good Left tackle this year, unlike the penalty machine GRob. Sullivan over Barnes is also a significant improvement. Both guys have to stay healthy, but their veteran leadership should make this Oline the best it's been since GSOT, and I don't think thats a Kool-Aid take,.

Britt and Quick vs Woods and Kupp....I think Woods will be a more reliable WR than Britt, and even if you think Britt is better, Cooper Kupp is surely better than Brian Quick. Woods and Kupp (and Spruce) are not letting the ball hit the ground so far.They run crisp routes that a QB can get his timing in sync with. Oline + WRs + Gurley means a very good year possible for Goff. This is a HUGE year for Jared Goff, because if what I supposed is true, he then has no excuses NOT to throw for 4000 yards this season.

Lots of "ifs" I know, but I am calling for 9 wins this year.

 

[DaveFan'51]

Another made-up index by ESPN, Just as valuable and accurate as their QBR!uke:

 

[bubbaramfan]

New coaching staff, new players, new system, new playbook, new style of practice, new mind set. Just way too much to put together and expect a winning season IMHO. Laying the foundation for the future is what this season is about.

But I do expect improvement (and 2 wins vs the 48er's). I'll be happy if they win 6 games.

 

[Rabid Ram]

Another made-up index by ESPN, Just as valuable and accurate as their QBR!uke:

I agree, however they atleast serv a purpose to start some discussion

 

[Rabid Ram]

New coaching staff, new players, new system, new playbook, new style of practice, new mind set. Just way too much to put together and expect a winning season IMHO. Laying the foundation for the future is what this season is about.

But I do expect improvement (and 2 wins vs the 48er's). I'll be happy if they win 6 games.

I'd like to see atleast 8 or 9 wins minimum

 

[Rabid Ram]

No kidding.

The question is whether the coaching staff improvements in coaching many of last years players will result in more wins? Wade Phillips is almost more important of an addition to the team than McVay(imho), and I like McVay a LOT! Of course, this also includes the great assistant coaches they both hired and retaining Coach Bones was a fantastic move by McVay.

6 wins is a very modest improvement over last years 4 wins. I think the defense will take a step forward and be at least a top 10 unit under Phillips. There is no reason why Special Teams will be any less good this year. If both these predictions are true, the offense showing even marginal improvement should bring us 7+ wins, and I expect better than marginal performance after the first few games of the season. Oline:
Whitworth-Saffold-Sullivan-Havenstein-Brown
*This line has a VERY good Left tackle this year, unlike the penalty machine GRob. Sullivan over Barnes is also a significant improvement. Both guys have to stay healthy, but their veteran leadership should make this Oline the best it's been since GSOT, and I don't think thats a Kool-Aid take,.

Britt and Quick vs Woods and Kupp....I think Woods will be a more reliable WR than Britt, and even if you think Britt is better, Cooper Kupp is surely better than Brian Quick. Woods and Kupp (and Spruce) are not letting the ball hit the ground so far.They run crisp routes that a QB can get his timing in sync with. Oline + WRs + Gurley means a very good year possible for Goff. This is a HUGE year for Jared Goff, because if what I supposed is true, he then has no excuses NOT to throw for 4000 yards this season.

Lots of "ifs" I know, but I am calling for 9 wins this year.

Lots of is for sure. I belive woods is better then Britt. Personally Britt was a shiny turd on a crap corps he looked good because he was the best we had

 

[Rambitious1]

I hope for the best...but I see a 4 or 5 win team for 2017.

 

[InnovatedMind]

I hope for the best...but I see a 4 or 5 win team for 2017.

Duuuuuuuuuude....you trollin' us??

 

[Ram65]

Based on past performance, division and schedule the placements seem to be accurate. It would be interesting to see how they did in all the divisions and playoffs. It seem that every year there are disruptors that go against the predictions. No one predicted the Cowboys success last year while many predicted a poor season without Romo. The Rams have a lot of changed parts from coaches to players. They could be a disruptor this year.

2017 NFC West Projections
TEAM WINS LOSSES WIN DIVISION
Seahawks 10.2 5.7 75.8%
Cardinals 8.0 8.0 18.7%
Rams 6.0 10.0 4.0%
49ers 5.1 10.9 1.5%

The Seahawks hold the league's second-highest chance to win their division at 75.8 percent, trailing only the Patriots at 92.3 percent. FPI projects the Cardinals to be the only real threat to the Hawks for the division -- but it is less than a one-in-five chance. Neither the Rams nor the 49ers are viewed as credible threats, and both reside in the bottom four of FPI's rankings.

 

[dieterbrock]

I hope for the best...but I see a 4 or 5 win team for 2017.

I see a 2 or 3 win team too.
Of course, I'm looking at the Jets, Cleveland and the 49ers for that but still, I see em!

The Rams? 8 wins minimum

 

[RamsSince1969]

Duuuuuuuuuude....you trollin' us??

I'm feeling that if the offense can score 21 to 35 per game, we are playoff bound! And, we have the easiest schedule in something like 10 years. I'm all in!!!!!!!! Everyone jump on my back! Shocking the world!

 

[SteezyEndo]

I'm feeling that if the offense can score 21 to 35 per game, we are playoff bound! And, we have the easiest schedule in something like 10 years. I'm all in!!!!!!!! Everyone jump on my back! Shocking the world!

Yeah no kidding. Even if it means 7 field goals to get 21, or 5 touchdowns w/point after to get 35. I am hoping for more TD's, not so much FG's but yeah. 21+ points a game would be good.

 

[wolfdogg]

I hope for the best...but I see a 4 or 5 win team for 2017.

You outta yo damn mind! Playoffs baby!!