I think among the better reasons the spread of flu slows in warmer month is simply...
Fewer runny noses, from the temp changes, spreading snot around.
As gross as it sounds. That’s a biggie.
Covid 19 thread
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I think among the better reasons the spread of flu slows in warmer month is simply...
Fewer runny noses, from the temp changes, spreading snot around.
As gross as it sounds. That’s a biggie.
60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says
German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested that her government's priority is about "slowing its spread."
This is correct, IMHO. There may be a vaccine sooner than we would expect. I know most are saying it will be 12+ months, but there are ways to fast-track approvals and testing.
Regardless, until that happens just figure that most of us are eventually going to get it. This is highly contagious and has an unusual ability to survive on surfaces for quite a long time. Add to the fact that you can be a carrier for days before showing and symptoms and that even if you have symptoms they may be very mild. Most humans just aren't that easy to herd or to convince not to interact. This is going to be everywhere sooner than later.
The problem is that even if only 1% or 2% die, about 10% or so are hit bad enough to need the hospital. We just don't have enough hospital beds and health care workers to handle a spike. The spread needs to slow down enough that people roll in to the hospital over many months, not all in the same couple of weeks.
Mass gatherings need to be stopped and stopped now. Sporting events, concerts, trade shows, etc. Anything were people are traveling to and from to attend. Schools should be shut down soon too but more on regional basis. Spring and summer will help to slow the spread, but we should be acting now to do what we can to spread out the timing of the infections.
WestCoastRam
Legend
I'm no epidemiologist but from what I've read, in a word, no. Flu has a .01% mortality rate. Bad flu might be closer to .02-.03%. The mortality rate of Covid-19 may in the end be something like .09%.
Here's the problem though. The difference between .03% and .09% is freaking chasm! One reason flu doesn't kill more is we have great health care (in some countries) which can ensure that people who would die with no intervention live with medical services. This virus, being a bit more dangerous than really bad flu will actually cause a magnitude difference of people needing medical services in the millions and so some of the people who would survive will not get adequate treatment (not enough ventilators, etc...) and die. Wuhan's death rate is 5.4% (approx) and that reason is because their health care sxs was overwhelmed. It's a reason that Italy's death rate is so high (along with median age being 7 odd years older than most countries), Italy's hospitals are overrun in the north and they are triaging. People are dying there cause there just isn't enough medical care for them.
You’re assuming two things. One that it’s a regular strain of influenza when I said a stronger one which pops up from time to time. You’re also assuming we know all the cases of people getting it and recovering. How many had it that aren’t reported, those would be driving the mortality rate down.
Let’s also remember this is covid 19, there have been 19 of this type of virus. These things come around some are stronger than others. Some are cured faster than others.
Haven't prepped at all. I have a pretty well stocked larder, but people are acting like this is a zombie apocalypse which to me is fuckin crazy.
That said I am glad I live in a rural area now. I certainly don't want this shit.
IMO in a few months' time we'll look back and see that it was an overreaction across the world. And maybe we'll learn something not to mention on the government/medical side it's a good thing to have a dry run for a scare like this.
That said I am glad I live in a rural area now. I certainly don't want this shit.
IMO in a few months' time we'll look back and see that it was an overreaction across the world. And maybe we'll learn something not to mention on the government/medical side it's a good thing to have a dry run for a scare like this.
This is definitely a case where over-reacting is way better than under-reacting. I don't mean buying out all of the toilet paper. It is more about going to crowded events, washing your hands, social distancing, cutting down on the hookers.
The problem is not how much we change our behaviors, but when we start doing it. Because we all will sooner than later. Better to start now.
The problem is not how much we change our behaviors, but when we start doing it. Because we all will sooner than later. Better to start now.
SteezyEndo
The Immaculate Exception
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