Yeah we all have our takes on this and that's fine. I'll just say again that the league has changed permanently due to the cost of QB salaries. If you think a QB has a reasonable chance to be a starter then taking him late round 1 means you get a 5th year option. Which currently is worth like $50M in straight value, minus whatever the rookie scale pays him in that 5th year. That's a lot of cheddar and chances are in 5 years it will be worth more than $50M.
So again what I think is going on here is we are witnessing a change of reality with draft picks and QBs. Teams have been reaching on the position for years. But what is coming I think is an acceptance that reaching late first means you get a fifth year of control and monetarily assuming that QB has a chance to hit it is an investment that will pay off down the road.
And it's hard to be a GM who refuses to accept that type of mentality. Because if you are that GM you will never draft a QB who is worth a shit. Because all the ones teams project to have a chance to start will be gone by the time your pick comes around that you think has value at the position.
I mean, the opportunity cost is losing the 5th year option on another player, perhaps a better player.
I think the idea of getting a 5th year on a QB is oversold when you stop looking at it in a vacuum.
Teams seem just as likely willing to wait for a guy at the top of the 2nd and drafting them there. It seems the desire to take one late in round one tends to have more to do with liking the QB at that spot or worrying that they won't make it to one's pick in the 2nd.
And tangentially related, teams will often start trying to trade for a guy they want at various spots, sometimes in the first and only culminating the trade in the 2nd cause they won't go over a certain price point.