Anonymous
Guest
I've been looking at the numbers on a couple of offenses that relate to the Rams 2012 offense and what it might be.
I am picking teams and years that reflect things about the 3 main guys who will determine the shape and character of the Rams 2012 offense.
First, I looked at the 2008 Falcons. Here: link . I did that one because Boudreau is one of the key factors in what the Rams can and will do on offense, and he was the OL coach in Atlanta in 08. What's significant about 08 is that they had a rookie qb and an absolutely newly built OL. The OL pretty much determined who the Falcons were offensively--a very strong running team that could support a rookie qb. So Boudreau comes to the Rams with that kind of experience. He will have a lot of say in what happens.
Here, I look at the 2008 Titans. That was Fisher's last playoff team, so it gives a nice picture of what he does when things are going his way. Fisher...duh...will dictate a lot about what the offensive philosophy and approach will be. So this analysis is under the direct command of captain obvious.
Later, I will look at the 2010 Jets, to get an idea about Shottenheimer.
For now, the Titans.
2008 Titans went 13-3 and got to the playoffs, where they were knocked off by the Ravens in a tough game. In terms of their make-up, they had a huge commitment to the run, a journeyman qb in Kerry Collins, and a stable OL with the same players they had had for a couple of years at OC and both OT spots. They changed their OGs, but one was a veteran free agent signing (Jake Scott) and one was internal promotion.
That line allowed them to be one of the best running teams in the game (5th in attempts, 7th in yards).
So what is the analogy between the 2008 Titans and the 2012 Rams? Well, besides the fact that Fisher is the head coach in both cases, Kerry Collins had to be managed right. In some respects, then, his situation is similar to Bradford's---arguably, a young qb after a set-back year is in the same spot as a revived journeyman qb with built in limitations. The difference of course being that Bradford is more innately talented and can get better. So while Collins was on a very low development curve and Bradford is climbing, their situations in both years are temporarily similar. So either way, both teams are going to be in a situation where they want to buttress things for the qb.
Looking at Collins's relevant numbers:
First, as I said, the Titans were 5th in rushing attempts and 7th in yards. The feature backs with Chris Johnson as a rookie (251 carries, 1200 something yards) and LenDale White in one of his better, less fat years (200 carries, 770 or so yards). This set the tone for everything else.
Falcons were 27th in passing attempts and 27th in yards and 16th in yards per attempt. Being ranked 7th on defense allowed them to get away with that. The defense helped cause, among other things, Collins played better when ahead than when behind in winnable circumstances (meaning, down by 1-8 points). It's the difference between a qb rating of 95 and a qb rating of 75. So keeping scoring down was vital to a winning season. (In fact, while they were 14th in points on offense, they were 2nd in points allowed on defense. That's their season right there.)
A factor in the yards per attempt--they had basically no top tier receivers. Their leading WRs were Brandon Jones, Justin McCareins, and Justin Cage. Which might be one Justin too many.
They tended throw when it was necessary and so they lined up for it. That means that 73.5% of Collins's attempts included 0 to 1 TEs. 50.7% of his attempts were out of 3 and 4 WR sets.
In contrast, if you combine Johnson's and White's numbers, 49.4% of their rushing attempts were out of 2-3 TE sets.
Just looking at those last 2 sets of numbers, that means when they lined up to run, they TENDED to signal it through the formation; when they lined up to pass, they TENDED to let people know from the formation. It was a mixed approach, however, cause that also tended to be less true when Johnson was the back---he ran out of spread sets (3 or more WRs) 60.6% of the time.
This is REALLY approximate, but when Collins played with either White or Johnson, they were in 2 or 3 TE sets about 37% of the time (this one is not easy to estimate unless you do the numbers for every RB plus Young played a game...still, it is going to be AROUND 37% give or take).
33% of Collins's throws were on first down. That represents 14% of total plays.
34% were on second down. That represents 14.5% of total plays.
30.6% were on third down. That represents 13% of total plays.
So they mixed it up there.
How do Collins's passes break down according to range? --->
Short. 10 Yards & below: 62.4% of total attempts, with just under 70% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 22.9% of total attempts, with a dismal 38.9% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 8% of total attempts, with 36.4% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 4.3% of total attempts, with 27% completions ...which btw is low end "okay" on on long attempts.
Compare that to both Bradford in 2010 and Ryan in 2008:
BRADFORD 2010:
Short. 10 Yards & below: 74.4% of total attempts, with 66% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 18.5% of total attempts, with 47% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 3.7% of total attempts, with 27.3% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 2.9% of total attempts, with 23.5% completions ...which is a below okay completion rate on long attempts.
RYAN 2008:
Short. 10 Yards & below: 64.4% of total attempts, with 66.3% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 23% of total attempts, with 59% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 7.3% of total attempts, with 40.6% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 5.3% of total attempts, with 34% completions ...which btw is not a bad completion rate on long attempts.
I am picking teams and years that reflect things about the 3 main guys who will determine the shape and character of the Rams 2012 offense.
First, I looked at the 2008 Falcons. Here: link . I did that one because Boudreau is one of the key factors in what the Rams can and will do on offense, and he was the OL coach in Atlanta in 08. What's significant about 08 is that they had a rookie qb and an absolutely newly built OL. The OL pretty much determined who the Falcons were offensively--a very strong running team that could support a rookie qb. So Boudreau comes to the Rams with that kind of experience. He will have a lot of say in what happens.
Here, I look at the 2008 Titans. That was Fisher's last playoff team, so it gives a nice picture of what he does when things are going his way. Fisher...duh...will dictate a lot about what the offensive philosophy and approach will be. So this analysis is under the direct command of captain obvious.
Later, I will look at the 2010 Jets, to get an idea about Shottenheimer.
For now, the Titans.
2008 Titans went 13-3 and got to the playoffs, where they were knocked off by the Ravens in a tough game. In terms of their make-up, they had a huge commitment to the run, a journeyman qb in Kerry Collins, and a stable OL with the same players they had had for a couple of years at OC and both OT spots. They changed their OGs, but one was a veteran free agent signing (Jake Scott) and one was internal promotion.
That line allowed them to be one of the best running teams in the game (5th in attempts, 7th in yards).
So what is the analogy between the 2008 Titans and the 2012 Rams? Well, besides the fact that Fisher is the head coach in both cases, Kerry Collins had to be managed right. In some respects, then, his situation is similar to Bradford's---arguably, a young qb after a set-back year is in the same spot as a revived journeyman qb with built in limitations. The difference of course being that Bradford is more innately talented and can get better. So while Collins was on a very low development curve and Bradford is climbing, their situations in both years are temporarily similar. So either way, both teams are going to be in a situation where they want to buttress things for the qb.
Looking at Collins's relevant numbers:
First, as I said, the Titans were 5th in rushing attempts and 7th in yards. The feature backs with Chris Johnson as a rookie (251 carries, 1200 something yards) and LenDale White in one of his better, less fat years (200 carries, 770 or so yards). This set the tone for everything else.
Falcons were 27th in passing attempts and 27th in yards and 16th in yards per attempt. Being ranked 7th on defense allowed them to get away with that. The defense helped cause, among other things, Collins played better when ahead than when behind in winnable circumstances (meaning, down by 1-8 points). It's the difference between a qb rating of 95 and a qb rating of 75. So keeping scoring down was vital to a winning season. (In fact, while they were 14th in points on offense, they were 2nd in points allowed on defense. That's their season right there.)
A factor in the yards per attempt--they had basically no top tier receivers. Their leading WRs were Brandon Jones, Justin McCareins, and Justin Cage. Which might be one Justin too many.
They tended throw when it was necessary and so they lined up for it. That means that 73.5% of Collins's attempts included 0 to 1 TEs. 50.7% of his attempts were out of 3 and 4 WR sets.
In contrast, if you combine Johnson's and White's numbers, 49.4% of their rushing attempts were out of 2-3 TE sets.
Just looking at those last 2 sets of numbers, that means when they lined up to run, they TENDED to signal it through the formation; when they lined up to pass, they TENDED to let people know from the formation. It was a mixed approach, however, cause that also tended to be less true when Johnson was the back---he ran out of spread sets (3 or more WRs) 60.6% of the time.
This is REALLY approximate, but when Collins played with either White or Johnson, they were in 2 or 3 TE sets about 37% of the time (this one is not easy to estimate unless you do the numbers for every RB plus Young played a game...still, it is going to be AROUND 37% give or take).
33% of Collins's throws were on first down. That represents 14% of total plays.
34% were on second down. That represents 14.5% of total plays.
30.6% were on third down. That represents 13% of total plays.
So they mixed it up there.
How do Collins's passes break down according to range? --->
Short. 10 Yards & below: 62.4% of total attempts, with just under 70% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 22.9% of total attempts, with a dismal 38.9% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 8% of total attempts, with 36.4% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 4.3% of total attempts, with 27% completions ...which btw is low end "okay" on on long attempts.
Compare that to both Bradford in 2010 and Ryan in 2008:
BRADFORD 2010:
Short. 10 Yards & below: 74.4% of total attempts, with 66% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 18.5% of total attempts, with 47% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 3.7% of total attempts, with 27.3% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 2.9% of total attempts, with 23.5% completions ...which is a below okay completion rate on long attempts.
RYAN 2008:
Short. 10 Yards & below: 64.4% of total attempts, with 66.3% completions
Medium. 11-20 yards: 23% of total attempts, with 59% completions
Deep medium. 21-30 yards: 7.3% of total attempts, with 40.6% completions
Long. 31+ yards: 5.3% of total attempts, with 34% completions ...which btw is not a bad completion rate on long attempts.