So which of the 5 first round QB's bust?

[Corbin]

Statistically bust rate overall for a 1st rd. QB is 58.3 %. Which means statistically basically 3 out of the 5 will be bust. But when you take a look at the spot within the first round it varies. Honestly I've felt like like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, and Trey lance would be those 3 QB's.

6-20 seems like the value area to take those QB's at a lower bust rate.


To help you with the number here is the list.

Overall	Number	Pro Bowls	Busts	CarAV	Bust Rate
1	15	11	6	64.3	40.0%
2-5	12	6	9	52.5	75.0%
6-10	10	3	5	27.4	50%
11-20	10	3	5	50.4	50%
21-32	13	3	10	31.3	76.9%
Total	60	26	35	46.2	58.3%

Think past the 1st round is easy as well? Here is past the 1st round QB bust rate.

Round	No.	Pro Bowl QBs	Hit Rate
2	22	3	13.6%
3-4	56	6	10.7%
5-7	122	5	4.1%

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Only one vote? I’d pick Fields and Wilson both.

Lance can already do the mental stuff. He just needs good coaching, which he has.

Jones is kind of the safe pick. Like an Andy Dalton. He won’t be great.

Lawrence seems like he has no way to fail.

 

[Merlin]

Fields has trouble getting through reads and seeing things. He'll be a real nice run threat guy early on but I think after a few years he'll be beat up and defenses will have the edge vs him. So he's my top pick for round 1 bust.

It's very likely we get at least one more. Hopefully it'll be Lance but he's in a real good situation. I really like Wilson but maybe in NY with all the pressure he wilts who knows. I definitely feel like injuries are going to factor in big with this year's class.

 

[badnews]

Which one has the best rookie season
Which one is the biggest bust
Which one has the best career

 

[Neil039]

I think they will all struggle. Beyond that, Lawrence has a coach who is used to coaching young talent. Think Meyer will get more out of him than expected.

 

[Tron]

Kyle Trask gonna have a better career than Lance, Fields and Jones. Mark my words. Those 3 gonna be big busts

 

[Memento]

Jones is the only first round quarterback whom I'm absolutely positive will bust. As much as I hate to admit it, I wish that the Whiners would've taken him instead of Lance.

 

[Loyal]

We all know Trey Lance will bust...cuz, Niners.

 

[André]

I think we may be wishcasting Lance because of the 49ers hate. I certainly HOPE he busts, but I don't think he is most likely to bust out of these five players.

 

[RamsFanCK]

That one the whiners think they got...yeah....no hope there

 

[Flint]

I think the hype train turned Wilson and Lance into high 1st round guys and the track record for Alabama qbs isn’t great. There’s a lot of uncertainty with these guys, Lance only started one season and only played one game in ‘20. Jones, only started one season on a team that had something like 10 guys drafted. Wilson, heard his name but not mentioned as a high pick til after the season was over.
I still don’t get the mystery surrounding the niners move, I expected the report to come out that Lance was the pick all along, but that hasn’t happened, so were they really considering making a move like that for Jones ? And if so what happened to change their minds cuz there weren’t any games being played, and if not what was the point of letting it slip that Jones was the guy? Hopefully the 9ers are involved in some princess bride iocain powder type subterfuge.

 

[Neil039]

Anyone remember Mitch Trubisky? From 2nd pick to second string. Orang bide welcome for most of these guys.

 

[AvengerRam]

I think Lawrence, with a solid supporting cast, will be very good.

Jones will be okay (like an Andy Dalton or Jimmy Garoppolo).

The other three will make highlight plays once in a while but, overall, won’t live up to their draft status.

 

[PressureD41]

I picked Wilson, thinking his mental game will be the factor why he busts. Can he handle NY?

 

[den-the-coach]

I picked Wilson, thinking his mental game will be the factor why he busts. Can he handle NY?

Plus not the greatest as he's working with a Defensive Head Coach combined with a first time Offensive Coordinator. Similar to Sam Bradford.

 

[Karate61]

Whichever QB plays against Aaron Donald the least!

 

[RamsOfCastamere]

For our sake, we want Lance to be a bust

 

[Loyal]

All five are trailers.... ~ LACHAMP46