First off, if Goff and Lynch are premium QB prospects, there will be multiple teams trying to move up to get them - even if the team has a decent QB, or a good aging QB. That is normally the case. And, believe it or not, since you rave so much about Goff's bowl game - that is going to be on tape that EVERY team in the NFL will watch, probably repeatedly, before the draft. It won't be a secret. Not every team will evaluate it equally, but if it's THAT good no team will not want him. Goff isn't a surprise pick from a small school, he will be studied heavily.
St. Louis
Philly
San Fran
Cleveland
Houston
These are the five teams with needs at QB. Cleveland isn't moving up. I don't buy into San Fran moving up. That leaves us, Houston, and Philly. Houston will be picking in the 20s barring something crazy happening in Week 17. They're even further away than we are.
So who is our competition? The Eagles? They are down a 2nd already. Do you see them giving up a lot for a QB? Possibly. But I'd be surprised if they did. But they're still picking outside the top 10 currently.
So who else is there?
Secondly, multiple teams have reasons to bid if there is truly an elite QB prospect. In terms of SF - THEY won't have to give up the farm, since they have higher draft picks. Believe it or not, teams value higher draft picks more than lower, and SF is in position to offer them higher picks, so won't have to give up so many. It's the Rams, in the unprecedented position of wanting to trade up from #18 for an elite prospect that would have to give up the farm.
Yes, they will. If the Rams are offering #18, 2017 1st, 2018 1st, and a 2nd. That means SF will have to offer their 1st, 2nd, and 2017 1st IF NOT MORE.(and I would expect Tennessee would ask for more considering we're offering an additional first round pick) That's giving up a lot for a team picking in the top 5 with holes all over.
I don't see SF making that trade.
Keep in mind a key part of the RG3 trade wasn't just that it was 3 #1s - it was that the first #1 was pick 6 in the draft for pick 2 - so they were giving up two additional firsts and a second to move up 4 spots. Not 17 or 15 spots, 4 spots. Nowhere have you acknowledged that the Redskins were only moving up a few spots to trade all those, not moving from the top of the draft to the second half of the first round, where picks are valued MUCH less.
The Rams traded down to #14 for a 2nd. So the trade actually was:
1st (#14)
2nd
2nd
1st
1st
Sorry but I don't see a huge difference in what I'm proposing. You keep assuming the Titans are unwilling to drop that far...I don't think that's a safe assumption.
Why wouldn't Cleveland trade up a spot, if there is a QB they decide is the guy they want? They have been looking for a franchise QB for years. Manziel isn't it. It's obvious. He is a disappointment, with a drinking problem. Now after years they finally have a chance to get a franchise QB, and they are going to shy away if getting the guy they really want might take an additional draft pick? The team that was willing to trade up for Manziel? I don't think so. Tennessee can trade with them and still guarantee getting the non QB they really want. That has significant value, so Cleveland won't have to give up that much more to move up and block other teams. Even a second would blow away your suggestion on the draft pick value chart.
Because the Rams aren't going to call Cleveland and say to them, "Hey Browns, we have an offer on the table with the Titans and are about to seal the deal. Do you want to trade up first?"
If you're Cleveland's GM and Tennessee calls you and says, "Hey Cleveland, I know we're not taking Goff but the Rams are and they're about to trade up. All you have to do is give us picks and we won't do the trade. We'll get the player we were drafting at #1 and you'll get the player you were going to draft at #2. Does that work?
You're probably going to assume that they're pulling your chain.
Not to mention the fact that you continue to assume that the trade value chart mirrors reality. Let's say you're Tennessee's GM and you aren't in love with any of the top 5 prospects and the Rams offer you #18, a 2nd, and two future firsts. The Browns offer you #2 and a 2nd. Which offers more to you? Unless there's a prospect I love in the top 5, I'm taking the future firsts. Especially on a team like Tennessee that needs an influx of talent around their franchise QB.
In terms of Dallas - they have an egotistical owner who loves to make a splash - and drafting a top QB is definitely a splash. They also have a 35 year old QB who suffered two broken collarbones this season, destroying their season. He has had 3 in his career. Yeah, a team that won 4 games with an aging, injury prone QB would never consider taking a top QB in the draft. Right.
I'm not buying it. Dallas has one of the best offenses in football with Romo. They need defensive help but have some talent on that side of the ball. With one big time player, they're a Super Bowl contender. I'm not buying that Jerry Jones is going to pass on a top 5 prospect to draft a backup QB with how close Dallas is.
I certainly believe that Dallas will go after a QB. Maybe they go after Manziel. Maybe they take a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. But I don't see them drafting a QB in the top 5 when they have Romo.
Drafting a backup QB is not a splash. You're not convincing me that this is the most likely move. Is it possible? Sure. But I'm betting against it.
You know what is a splash? Getting at least one future first from the Rams in a trade down. Especially when you can then draft Carson Wentz to develop behind Romo.
Amazing how EVERY objection to your position you feel will be miraculously decided in the Rams favor. In the real world, most if not all of the dubious options would choose to go for the QB. The real world, as all Rams fans know, does NOT favor the Rams.
Amazing how you assume I feel that way because I don't assume that every possibility will go the opposite direction. It can go either ways but there are better odds that San Diego and Dallas do not draft QBs in the top 5 than there are they do. Same with the Giants and the top 10.
Now, the odds are greater that Cleveland takes Goff than otherwise. But I'm hoping they pull a Cleveland and don't. It's possible their FO finds a reason not to take him. I'm hoping they do.