Mike Matthews

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Talking a Big Game

Where would you draft the following WR prospect? Would you even draft him at all?

Failed to qualify academically for college, so he spent a season at a military academy prep school where he had 21-524-6 receiving. Signed with a power conference school. As a FR, had 17-261-1. Was his team's 2nd leading WR as a SO, but injury limited him to only 7 games, 24-415-3. He's 6 feet tall, 192 pounds, relatively small, but has very good speed, running 4.44 seconds in the 40 with a 1.57 second 10-yard split time.

What do you think? Not enough career production? Maybe not the smartest player? Not the biggest and strongest guy. Probably not going to be great as a blocker in the pros. Fast but not a 4.3 second guy. Three years out of high school, but yet to crack at least 550 yards at any level since HS. Developmental upside since he's relatively fast, even if the production isn't the greatest. What draft grade should we give him? How about the middle rounds? Sound fair to you?

Who is this WR? It is Torry Holt. If I were writing one of these draft profiles about Holt entering his 3rd season for NC State, that is what his resume would look like. He had 2 more years in college to go before the Rams drafted him 6th overall in the 1999 draft. Just keep this in mind as we talk about Mike Matthews, because in terms of his pure athleticism, Matthews has the upside potential to be the next Torry Holt. He has a long way to go in further development to get there but his elite athleticism is why Matthews was one of the top HS recruits in the country. Matthews is still raw and he has some concerning issues with his ball skills but if he continues to improve his route running and gets more consistent catching the ball, someday he could be a very good NFL starter.

Also, put Holt in the HOF. I don't understand what the voters have against him. It's not right.

 

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Part 1: Background

Name, Age: Mike Matthews. Turns 21 in October of 2026. True junior, would be an early entrant. Tennessee. Sport management major. SEC academic honor roll in 2024 and 2025 [This isn't impressive, because almost the entire team received the same distinction. 80 players made the cut. Are we going to put 40 Rams in the Pro Bowl next year? Back in my day, I had to walk uphill both ways to get to class through a blizzard, dragging an entire set of encyclopedias in my bag, and by the time I got back to the dorms after getting hit by 2 cars trying to cross the street, the only thing left to eat in the cafeteria were tiny rotten apples, then after studying all night, I still got an "F" on the chemistry test.]

Size, estimated speed: Listed 6'1'' tall 200 pounds. Draftscout 4.34 seconds in 40, 6'1'' tall and 198 pounds. Draftbuzz 4.41 seconds in 40. Listed 197 pounds in 2024.

4-star and 5-star recruit from GA. Consensus top 50 recruit in the nation. HS recruiting profile compared him to Rashee Rice. Some recruiting interest as basketball recruit, played shooting guard. Recruiting interest as DB, considered to have potential to play S or CB. Dad was a college and Euro league pro basketball player, a 6'7'' tall forward who is in the HOF for Siena, had 1,037 career rebounds, which currently is 3rd in school history, then played pro ball in Switzerland and Croatia. Mother also played basketball in college. Has a sister. Also did track.

Recruiting profile said he had a 78'' wingspan [CJ Daniels is 6'2 1/4'' tall and has a 78 3/4'' wingspan], had the potential to develop into an NFL safety and had an effortless and fluid running style reminiscent of Marcus Allen, Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice. In the summer of 2023, SI recruiting profile said he was a potential future 1st round NFL draft pick if his technique could develop to match his athleticism.

There are minor discrepancies in his HS stats from different sources. 48-784-7 receiving as SO. 48-1,030-9 receiving, plus 23 tackles and 2 INTs on defense as JR. 39-751-9 receiving, 48 tackles, KR TD as SR. Listed 180 to 185 pounds in HS.

Enrolled at Tennessee in January of 2024. Entered transfer portal in December of 2024, but elected to remain at UT.

Nico Iamaleava was supposed to be the starter in 2025 but his soap opera drama transfer to UCLA resulted in Joey Aguilar flipping to UT instead of transferring to UCLA. Aguilar was an UDFA in 2026. Team was stacked with WR talent in 2025 with Chris Brazzell II (3rd round 2026, Carolina Panthers) and Braylon Staley (projected Day 3 pick in 2027). Matthews was the 3rd best WR in catches, yards and efficiency metrics.

Hard hit in 3rd game of 2025 season, possible shoulder injury but continued to play. Appeared to suffer upper body injury in game later in 2025 season diving for a pass, maybe shoulder injury, but continued to play.

UT has a wild QB competition going on for 2026 with about 4 candidates, so it is unclear who will emerge to become the team's starter. Staley is back at WR.

Vol fans in general seem to feel that Matthews has been a disappointment relative to the sky-high expectations he had as a top HS recruit. Matthews has repeatedly acknowledged in interviews that his route running and his hands need work and says he's trying to be a more vocal leader. Focused, chill and relaxed personality, structured and appropriate answers to interview questions. Says he wants to be rich and have generational wealth, expresses interest in investing and being responsible with money. Likes video games. Said that in practice he's gotten work as kick and punt returner. Coach says he can play all 3 WR positions.

2024: (11 games) 7-90-2 receiving, 1-32 kick return. Only 199 offensive snaps, mop up duty.
2025: (13 starts): 53-813-4 receiving, 2-32 rushing. 79.2 PFN impact score (55th in country), 6.8 YAC/rec, 2.0 yards/route (146th in country)

Zero career fumbles.

Ranked 71st on Bruce Feldman's 2026 Freak's List, saying he has 23.0 MPH top speed, 1.43 second 10-yard split time and a 38.5'' vertical jump. To put those numbers in context, when Xavier Worthy ran 4.21 seconds in the 40 at the Combine, his 10-yard split time was 1.44 seconds, barely behind Matthews's reported split. Per NFLNextGen stats, the top 2 speeds recorded for ball carriers since the 2018 season are Raheem Mostert in 2020 at 23.07 MPH and Jonathan Taylor last season at 22.38 MPH.

Sam Teets 2nd round tier, 30 overall on preliminary board (ahead of Charlie Becker, Omarion Miller and Ryan Wingo)
NFLdraftHQ mock 3rd round, 84
Tankathon 88, 14th WR
Draftbuzz 4th round projection, 113. (+) Speed, explosive 347 yards of YAC, smooth strides, both deep and intermediate ability. (-) 6 drops, inconsistent hands, 3 out of 8 contested grabs, rerouted by press, slight build, no nuance or details in routes.
FirstandTen 115, 14th WR (behind Mario Craver and Cooper Barkate), 3rd round projection
PFN board 125, 17th WR.
NFLMDD sim 133 (sandwiched between Sherrill 121 and Sategna 167)
PFSN sim 140
PFF big board not ranked top 75. Discrepancies from different sources regarding his PFF stats. Either 5 or 8 drops. Either 2 or 4 contested catches. Either 6.2 or 6.8 YAC/rec, 8.9% drop rate, 9 missed tackles force, 1.74 yards per route. 67.1 PFF grade.
Shane Hallam 7-round mock not selected, UDFA
Ian Cummings 3-round mock not selected
Travis May 3-round mock not selected
PFN industry consensus board not ranked among 180 players and 23 WRs.

 

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Part 2: Strengths

Natural and electric athleticism. Tantalizing potential yet to be fully unlocked. Light on his feet. Nice blend of speed, length and quickness to fit into multiple WR positions and versatility to play in any scheme. Rams fans sometimes want to replicate the GSOT in the draft, not appreciating that Torry Holt type athletes don't grow on trees and are very difficult to find. Matthews is one of the select few WR prospects where the comparison is appropriate. There's a good reason why he was a multi-position and multi-sport recruit in HS. His athletic tools exceed those of a typical draft prospect. High ceiling even though right now he's a mediocre performer.

His release package is simplistic and not impressive, but he has scintillating acceleration off the line to blow the doors off the CB. Wide split, ball on opposite hash, inside release, WR blows past and stacks the CB, adjusts to the flight of the ball, sliding slightly to the outside and makes the catch for a 40-yard TD. Opposing DC might want to bring an extra pair of pants to the press box.

Twitch and loose, flexible body should be foundational building blocks to improve his release moves and his route running. Flashes creativity to mix-up his release footwork to keep the CB guessing. Good hip sink and fluid COD. Start-stop suddenness for double moves. Quick hands against jams but I want him to continue to refine the details of the route and hand usage to be better in the middle of the route, because sometimes what would happen is WR initially won coming off the LOS but allowed the CB to recover and bump or grab him at the break point, disrupting the timing of the route and limiting separation. A couple times showed good length and play strength to shove CBs off inside the route.

Could be better in the pros than in college, because he plays in a Josh Heupel spread system and the plays that I thought were most exciting and most interesting for his evaluation were the once-in-a-blue-moon snaps where he was deployed in a tight split or a bunch set closer to the OL, which translates better to playing for the Rams. Good route tempo and timing from a more compressed formation. In tight split, nice jab step outside paired with good hand swipe to beat jam. From tight split, stacked behind 2nd WR, beat the CB badly on deep corner route but dropped what should have been a 70-yard TD.

Nice head fake at tope of route on slant to win inside for TD catch. I don't like how the spread scheme constrained him by placing him so far away from the ball. Sometimes he was all the way against the opposite sideline, in a different area code. Bruce and Holt dismantled NFL defenses inside, over the middle, as Bill Belichick phrased it, slants and in-cuts. Matthews looked more dangerous on those types of routes, but his team didn't use him enough in that manner. He ran a limited route tree, but this isn't because he's incapable of running NFL type routes, it is purely a function of his team's offensive system.

Team's QB in 2025 was mediocre and wasn't drafted. Matthews was open for long bombs multiple times, but the QB ruined big plays with poorly underthrown passes. I don't know exactly which plays the stat trackers ruled were drops, but there were several plays that likely were called drops where the QB was at least half responsible by not being accurate with the pass.

Beat CB on vertical double move but pass underthrown. Beautiful swim move to beat press-man, gets behind CB on vertical go route but the pass is underthrown. Play strength nearly knocks the CB to the ground in release, potential 97-yard TD but QB doesn't throw the ball on time, late with pass.

There was a very fast and athletic WR from Tennessee named Jalin Hyatt, a 3rd round pick in 2023. He was a deep ball monster in college. Lance Zierlein compared him to DeSean Jackson and ranked him as one of the best players in the draft. Daniel Jeremiah had him as the 40th best prospect even after Hyatt didn't run as fast in the 40 at the Combine as expected. Draftbuzz ranked him as the 14th best prospect in the draft. I thought that Hyatt was overrated and didn't like him very much. Hyatt has had a very disappointing career so far and the NYG had him glued to the bench most of last season. Per SISDataHub stats, Hyatt has a terrible 14.3% career drop rate. After 3 combined seasons, he has yet to accumulate 500 receiving yards. Hyatt had nearly 1,300 yards his final season at UT and won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's best WR. Hyatt is a great example of how it takes more than pure speed to be a successful starting WR in the NFL. Since Matthews is very fast but isn't a great route runner and drops many passes, it might seem like he's just another Hyatt, but I don't think this is accurate. I feel that Matthews is the better prospect of the two. Matthews has the raw tools to become a 3-level threat in the NFL.

He hasn't gotten it yet, but I think he's working on his game. Detail oriented with his body movements and technique. Seems like he listens to coaching and is aware of his weaknesses.

An aggressive and physical blocker, though his focus and effort isn't always consistent. Powerful and physical 2-handed shoves on some blocks. Was an aggressive blocker even back in HS. Normally gives good effort on downfield blocks. Flashes ability to adjust his blocking assignment and find proper target. Good hustle on INT return trying to make tackle.

Even though he's only scratching the surface of his full potential, still had over 800 yards last season as only the 3rd best WR on his team and without an elite QB. Team's uncertain QB situation for 2026 could continue to keep his stats down and keep his draft stock low.

 

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Part 3: Weaknesses

Not a technician, still relatively raw. He'd be an early entrant and has only played 2 seasons in college so far. More of an athlete then a complete WR at this point of his career. Poor advanced metrics, just an average WR in 2025, nothing special. Draft value is based on a projection of what he could become someday, not a proven commodity, creating substantial bust risk.

Too short to be a prototypical WR1 in the pros. Play speed doesn't match his timed speed. Plays tentative

Not super confident on the field. Lacks swagger. His body language, energy level and execution of plays don't reflect a WR who knows he's the best player out there. When team got into tight situations in the game, I didn't see a WR who demanded the ball, whether verbally or through performance by getting open. I feel that Matthews needs a breakout game or breakout season to gain mojo. In Torry Holt's JR year at NCST, he had a monster 12-168-5 performance against Florida State. It was basically the game where he announced to the world that he was the man. Matthews needs something like that, because right now I don't think he has the self-confidence and belief necessary to be a superstar. Rightfully so, because his route running and hands aren't good enough, but at some point the switch has to flip, not just with the physical execution on the field but also with the mentality. Holt was never one to lack in swagger.

Concerning issues with his ball tracking and ball skills. Dropped passes with inconsistent hand coordination even back in HS. When running at full speed downfield, seems to have problems focusing on the ball and properly adjusting his body and time his jump or hands to make the best play at the catch point.

On deep pass, the ball should have dropped over his outside shoulder, but WR misjudges the flight of the ball, isn't in proper relationship with it, and lets the ball drop over his inside shoulder, dropping the pass.

Appears to have small hands. Has issues catching when his arms are fully extended, doesn't have elite effective catch radius despite good wingspan. Only reached for pass with 1 hand, not able to get both arms up to make play on ball.

Pass went right through his arms on diving catch attempt. Ball nearly squirted out of his hand as he pulled it to his stomach, awkwardly trapped it to his body.

Inconsistent reading the coverage. Defense rotates into cover 2. WR stops his route too close to the CB, not reading or feeling the space properly against the zone coverage, crossing up his QB and nearly causing an INT.

Needs to be more consistent with his hands and posture vs press-man so that he doesn't get jammed. Rerouted by some jams. CBs grab him and slow him down on routes. Not productive as underneath receiver.

Simplistic routes in spread offense. Too many nothing plays in offense where he doesn't have to run an actual route, no value for pro evaluation. Very slow coming off the LOS on some plays. Very lethargic route tempo on a comeback.

Doesn't craft routes well. Sloppy route contributed to INT. Ends up too close to other WRs at times, maybe made an error with his route? Needs to be more efficient with body movements and route tempo vs zone coverage instead of treating the defenders like they are in man.

Not an elite blocker. Very limited run blocking duties in scheme. Some games, almost zero true run block reps. On the small side, doesn't have great length, mass or strength for blocking.

On long TD run by RB where RB reversed field, WR's lack of hustle nearly ruined the play, probably assumed his block all the way on the other side of the field didn't matter, but when the RB broke into the open, suddenly WR's CB was the last defender between the RB and the end zone and since WR didn't block him, it forced the RB to beat the CB 1 vs 1 in space.

Mental error on screen pass left his CB unblocked and ruined the play. A punching match with the CB isn't the same as a good block. Get your feet and body to the proper angle so that the CB can't get inside you and tackle at the POA. Quit trying to be Terence Crawford. It isn't about trying to be a tough guy, the idea is to get in the CB's way. Gap run, his blocking angle is wrong, so CB runs by him untouched and tackles the RB in the designated run lane, helping to limit the damage.

On a few plays, he took the play off, like he was tired or conserving energy and gave 0% effort on run blocks.

Average YAC relative to speed and athleticism. Gets tackled and chopped down too frequently by the 1st defender, not as dangerous on WR screens as you might think given his speed. Doesn't have strong stiff arm.

Flirtations with transfer portal and his interview could be signs of a mercenary attitude, motivated by money over any innate loyalty to a team. If he becomes a star, you're going to have to pay him full market value, he's not going to give you a hometown discount. Show me the money.

 

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Part 4: Draft Grade and Pro Comp

3rd round grade. Terrance Williams (3rd round 2013, Dallas Cowboys, Baylor).

If we had to lay early odds, I'd bet that Matthews stays in school and waits for the 2028 draft. He's likely earning good NIL money, so if his draft stock doesn't change much and he could be a Day 3 pick, does it make sense to take a pay cut to jump early to the NFL? His long-term earnings could be better by staying in college, because if he goes to the NFL and gets relegated to the bench, it could short circuit further development. Being a starter in college would give him a chance to work on his game so that when he does get drafted he'll be better prepared for the pros.

Since he hardly saw the field as a freshman, Matthews effectively only has 1 season of playing experience in college. He needs to show development and progress in 2026, because his 2025 season wasn't overly impressive. I think that he has future upside to become a 1st round prospect, but unlikely that it would be in the 2027 draft. He's too raw and inconsistent right now.

If he did declare for 2027 and the Rams drafted him in the 2nd round, it would likely be a speculative pick, where the team knew the WR wasn't pro ready but was rolling the dice that they could develop him into something bigger. Brian Quick would be an example.

 

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I forgot to mention something. In Tennessee's scheme, Matthews always lined up on the left side of the formation.

 

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I was slow to figure it out, but the primary reason all these spread system WRs keep running into each other is because they are running option routes on those plays and weren't on the same page with the other WR.