Duce Robinson

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One or Eight?

There's a wide range of opinions about Florida State WR, Duce Robinson. Multiple mocks and boards have him as a potential 1st round pick. Ian Cummings (PFSN) doesn't like him and didn't include him in his 3-round mock. In PFSN's draft simulator, Duce is only ranked in the 6th round range. I was unable to find a draft profile by IC about Duce, so it isn't clear to me why Cummings is so low on Robinson.

Robinson's father, Dominic Robinson, was a WR at Florida State under Bobby Bowden. As an undrafted player in 2005, he signed with the St. Louis Rams. In a podcast interview, he told a story about catching a pass in practice from Marc Bulger. After running down the field, he turned around and was confused, because Bulger was extremely upset and agitated, acting as if he had just thrown an interception. Robinson wondered whether he had done something wrong. Robinson wore jersey number 18. Bulger told him the reason he was angry was that the pass was supposed to hit the WR on the number 1 of the jersey, upfield, but instead the pass was on the 8, slightly behind, so Bulger was mad at himself for the "poor" ball placement. Robinson said it was an eye-opening moment for him, because it was the first time he realized just how demanding the standard of excellence was at the NFL level and how precise and detailed the execution needed to be to be great. He came away with a tremendous level of respect for Bulger and it made him look in the mirror and consider whether his route running was up to NFL standards.

Is Duce Robinson a 1 (meaning a 1st round prospect) or is he an 8 (meaning an UDFA who doesn't merit being selected in any of the 7 rounds)? The difference between the two isn't as large as you might assume. We've seen many 1st round WRs play like they never should have been drafted, and we've seen some UDFAs go on to be successful NFL receivers. Marc Bulger himself was a 6th round pick who eventually played like he had been a 1st round pick.

Robinson is very similar to KJ Duff, the tall Rutgers WR. NFL teams typically like tall WRs. Any team that likes Duff likely will also like Robinson. Whichever WR goes higher, the other one would be a viable fallback option.

 

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Part 1: Background

Name, age: Duce Robinson, turns 22 in January of 2027. USC 2023 to 2024, Florida State 2025 to 2026. True senior. Graduated in 2026 with degree in interdisciplinary social science. Studied communication at USC.

Size, estimated speed: Listed 6'6'' tall, 230 pounds. DraftBuzz 4.65 seconds in 40. Draftscout 6'5 3/8'' tall, 223 pounds, 4.54 seconds in 40. Brian Bosarge 4.44 to 4.52 seconds in 40, 37 to 39'' vertical jump.

5-star TE recruit from AZ. Mom was swimmer in college, dad played baseball and football in college and signed with Rams after going undrafted in 2005. His dad runs an athletic training facility in AZ.

Didn't play tackle football until HS. Had 1st scholarship offer before he had ever played football in HS. Recruiting profile compared him to Darren Waller and said he has 10'' hands and 35'' arms. 84-1,614-14 receiving as SR in HS. Various sources listed him as between 225 to 235 pounds in HS.

Was regarded as potential MLB prospect in baseball while in HS, some comparing him to Aaron Judge. Played baseball for USC as outfielder, but didn't get much action, only 2 hits in limited plate appearances. Also played summer league baseball and had a 0.253 batting average in a limited number of games with 20 hits.

Team captain in 2025. Honored in July of 2026 by Allstate Good Works Team for his various charitable and community activities. His head coach praises his leadership and says he's an incredible person. The team's new QB says that Robinson might be the best leader he's ever been around.

Converted positions to WR as FR at USC in 2023.

Undisclosed injury in 2025, potentially a minor leg injury. Undisclosed injury in spring of 2025.

Guz Malzahn was FSU's OC in 2025, then retired from coaching after the season. His assistant got promoted to become the new OC, so FSU presumably will continue to run a Malzahn style offense in 2026.

2023 (USC, 11 games): 16-351-2
2024 (USC, 12 games): 23-396-5
2025 (FSU, 12 games, 11 starts): 56-1,081-6. Per PFF had 18 contested catches in 2025.

PFF big board 37
DraftBuzz: 1st round projection, 24 overall, 3rd best WR. (+) Towering frame, catching in traffic, ball tracking, only 2 drops, contested grabs. (-) Poor long speed, separation, 2 fumbles, route tempo on underneath routes.
Drafttek 105
NFLMDD sim 128, ranked 121 on consensus board.
PFSN sim 194
Sam Teets not yet evaluated
Ian Cummings not selected in 3-round mock draft
Tim Crean mock draft 1st round, 23 overall
Travis May mock draft 3rd round
Draftscout: Day 2
Brian Bosarge: (+) Massive frame, exceptional downfield acceleration, elite jump ball weapon, deep ball specialist, boxes out CBs, lethal on back shoulder fades and intermediate digs. (-) Struggles to drop hips on short routes, separating from press-man coverage, consistency blocking.

 

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Part 2: Strengths

NFL frame and elite measurements. Very tall. Long arms. Huge wingspan. If hand size report is accurate, has big hands. Rare functional reach when his body is fully extended, able to get to high throws near sideline that would sail over the heads of most other WRs and go out of bounds. Difficult for smaller CBs to challenge the catch point on high throws. Inviting target for the QB since the pass doesn't need to be precisely accurate to give him a chance to make the catch.

Springy, natural leaper like a basketball player.

Sufficient long speed to run vertical routes and to gain YAC in the open field. Beat some CBs with double moves to get open deep.

Tracks ball well and adjusts on deep passes and backshoulders, showing some of his baseball background. I wouldn't put him in the elite category, but he's good in this department.

Comes off the line with low pad level and powerful body posture, sprinter strides to drive forward.

Uses his length to fend off contact in his release. When he "turned it on" flashed solid ability to use his superior length in the release to create separation and route leverage vs the CB on slants. Since his arms are so long, all he has to do is hold the CB at bay away from his body, then when he turns around to the QB there naturally will be a gap so that he's not crowded.

Good measured length for blocking duties. Generally attentive and diligent with his initial blocking angle.

Relatively inexperienced at WR due to his baseball commitments and because he was a TE in HS. Potential late bloomer.

Praised for his leadership and work ethic by FSU coaches and players. Has already graduated. Active in the community.

Doesn't appear to have a long injury history. Normal age for draft prospect.

Productive, with over 1,000 yards in 2025. Tommy Castellaneos was a good dual threat college QB, but he's very short and was an UDFA in the 2026 draft, so he wasn't playing with a 1st round type QB on his team. Led FSU in catches and yards and the next best WR only had 571 yards.

Played on both sides of the formation, to the boundary and to the field, occasionally in tight splits.

 

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Part 3: Weaknesses

I hate trying to watch spread scheme WRs. There's so little that translates to the NFL. You could watch an entire game and maybe there's one play that's interesting from an evaluation standpoint. Very boring tape to study. Just ran the same basic routes over and over, very simplistic and repetitive. How are we supposed to grade him? There's so little useful data. I 100% understand why coaches use spread offenses; it can help you win games. It isn't so good at preparing the WRs for the NFL.

Shaky and unreliable hands. Wide open in end zone vs Virginia in overtime, potential game-tying TD hits him in the chest, but he wildly bobbles the ball, about 7 different touches and still can't pull the ball in as he's going out of bounds, incomplete pass and his team loses the game.

Body catches when he could catch the ball with his hands. Alligator arms. Allows the ball to come to him instead of attacking the catch point in contested situations. Doesn't use his full frame due to not consistently extending his arms, and lack of instincts and technique in how to react to the pass and attack the ball, resulting in him playing like a shorter and smaller WR in contested situations. Shows some poor hand eye coordination at the catch point, unable to come up with passes it looked like he could have caught. Shaky double catches. Bobbles catches even if all alone without a defender next to him. Fights the ball, making awkward and sloppy catches where the ball nearly squirts out of his arms. Doesn't have confident and calm hands.

Not a twitchy athlete. Not explosive or sudden. Below average speed.

Really struggles to build up speed off the line, not explosive. Concerning lack of football speed on short and intermediate routes. Lackluster release package. Especially because he's going to be the X receiver in the pros, he's likely to struggle to get off the line against press-man in the pros. Hands are not accurate trying to swipe away jams.

Needs to be more physical playing through contact so that he can jump into the air for contested balls. He allows the CB to hinder him, resulting in his feet staying glued to the ground, making him play shorter than his measured height.

Runs dull routes, breaks are not sharp. Like many tall WRs, his height becomes a disadvantage, because his COG is high. If the CB is grabbing him in the stem, WR's high COG hinders his ability to generate strength to simultaneously run and push the CB away so that he can separate at the top of the route. Ran a limited route tree. Unable to snap off routes and sit down quickly for short passes, drifts into breaks. No break violence on deeper or intermediate routes.

Invites CBs to drive on slants with dull routes. Lacks feel for how to create leverage on short routes underneath. It is like he runs the route exactly how it is drawn up on the playsheet and doesn't understand that you can manipulate and move the CB to create more space for the QB.

Lacks instant burst in open field, unable to pull away from pursuit. Loses races and can get caught from behind. Leggy and not elusive immediately after the catch, limiting his YAC ability.

Not physical or aggressive as blocker. More like a smaller and weaker WR when blocking. Needs to do better job with small adjustments to his blocking angle, allows athletic defenders to slip by him in space. Doesn't maintain a strong base, can get shoved backwards. For purposes of the Rams, I was particularly concerned about the poor blocks he had when in a tight split closer to the OL. Disappointing blocking ability relative to his huge size.

Poor hand placements. Weak hand placements. Terrible grip power for a WR who supposedly has big hands. Tries to grab the outside of the CB's shoulder pads in situations where he should be trying to get his hands inside the frame so that he can push and drive the CB backwards. Almost never able to control and lock up the CB. Slow hand speed, doesn't reload, reset hands or punch quickly in hand fights with the CB, allowing them to disengage from blocks. Loses to counters due to weak hands and poor grip.

At first, I gave him the benefit of the doubt on blocks, thinking he was just conserving energy, which is typical in spread schemes. The more games I watched, I decided his lack of hustle is a problem. On certain plays where the runner has a chance to score a TD, make a big gain or it is a short yardage run, Robinson still gives lackluster and disappointing effort. It doesn't register in his mind that his block is crucial and he needs to step it up. One play, his laziness resulted in a huge hit on the QB by a completely unblocked DB.

Not detail oriented with his body positioning and footwork in the execution of plays. If his dad ever told him the Marc Bulger story, Robinson didn't take it to heart. He doesn't "get it", he's not a technician who hammers down on the small details of his craft.

Drifts out of games, an invisible man with no impact on the game for extended stretches. On extremely critical set of downs late in 4th quarter, he was invisible. Zero separation, zero threat to the defense, zero clutch factor, completely useless with the game on the line.

The 2 fumbles he had were very soft fumbles. Why is his grip so weak?

Stats were inflated by some long plays for TDs against East Texas A&M.

High bust potential if drafted in 1st round.

Despite the high praise about his character, I don't love his interview. He's a 5-star recruit who was hyped up both in baseball and football. Is he pampered? Is he mentally tough? FSU had a bad season in 2025. When they got behind in games, there wasn't any on field leadership by example from Robinson. He wasn't clutch. He didn't step up in key situations. His competitiveness and energy level wasn't high. That really bothered me. Why isn't he a better player?

 

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Part 4: Draft Grade and Pro Comparison

Late round grade. A.T. Perry (6th round 2023, New Orleans Saints, Wake Forest)

Some draft experts, including Lance Zierlein, loved Perry. LZ compared him to DeVante Parker, who was a 1st round pick in 2015. Perry was very productive in college, with nearly 2,300 yards over his final 2 seasons. He also had 17 dropped passes over those 2 seasons. LZ gave him a 3rd round grade and was completely befuddled when Perry fell deep into Day 3. Some people thought that the Saints had landed a big draft steal.

Perry had 246 receiving yards as a rookie and had some nice moments, flashing potential. He was projected to become the WR3 for the Saints heading into his 2nd season. Instead, the Saints lost so much confidence in him that he was inactive for games and got waived in the middle of the season. He's only been on PS for various teams since that point.

Keep in mind, this is the Puka Nacua draft class. On draft boards and profiles prior to the draft, Perry was almost universally ranked higher than Puka. Snead and McVay's decision to go with the supposedly slow and small Puka instead of other faster or bigger WRs who were still on the board, a seemingly trivial decision at the end of thee 5th round, has turned out to be an enormous franchise changing decision that has shaped the current composition of our roster. Without Puka on the team, we might have a huge gaping hole at WR right now.

One reason I don't like Duce Robinson is I feel he's a boom or bust prospect. He's not a good candidate to be one of the backup WRs. He doesn't have the right versatility for that job. So, he either has to be the team's starting X receiver or suddenly he could be on the roster bubble and pushed down the depth chart. I don't like big WRs who struggle to catch the ball. While Robinson has enormous measured size, he doesn't fully use that size on the field, so I think the numbers are misleading. You could get a shorter WR but if that guy knows how to time the jump and use their hands, they could be just as good at contested grabs as Robinson. I also think that since Robinson doesn't run shorter routes well, he's a poor fit for the Rams offense.