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The Chargers QB strategy back in 2004 is pretty interesting.
First, some background. The Chargers drafted Brees in 2001 at the top of the 2nd round. He was one of those "too short to get drafted in the first round" QBs. Brees was mediocre his first 3 years. And the Chargers finished 4-12 in 2003, so they decided they needed a new QB and worked the deal with the Giants to get Rivers for Eli in the 2004 draft.
Then Brees plays great in 2004 making the pro bowl and the Chargers finished 12-4.
So now Rivers is sitting on the bench for 2 years, 2004 and 2005, and looks a bit like overkill.
But fate helps out the Chargers and Brees wrecks his shoulder in 2005, opening the door for Rivers.
The Chargers dump Brees in March 2006, Rivers starts in 2006, has a great year, helped by a great OL and Tomlinson and Gates. And SD finishes 14-2.
Brees has a great 2006 himself, and the Saints make the playoffs for the first time in 7 years. Then Brees carries the Saints to the SB and becomes a HOF QB.
So what if the Chargers stuck with Brees?
Well they could have ransomed that #1 overall pick for sure. Some food for thought here?
Thinking how this example could relate to the Rams is fascinating.
Like Brees, Bradford is an uncertainty. And like the Chargers, the Rams have an opportunity to draft a QB very high. But unlike the Chargers, the Rams have a lot more money tied up in Bradford than a 2nd round pick like Brees, so they aren't going to keep Sam if they draft a QB at #2. And they aren't going to be able to trade Sam either. They will have to cut him.
If the Rams take a QB at #2, Sam is gone, and there are 4 possible outcomes.
#2 is really good, Bradford is really good.
#2 is really good, Bradford is average or worse.
#2 is average or worse, Bradford is really good.
#2 is average or worse, Bradford is average or worse.
The only case where it pays to draft a QB at #2 is if #2 is really good AND Bradford is average or worse. Otherwise, the outcome will range from bad to really bad for the Rams. Even if they are both great, the Rams would have wasted the value of the #2 pick on a QB when they could have added more talent. And if they both stink, the Rams still wasted the value of the pick. And if Bradford goes on to be really good and #2 average or worse, well you get the idea.
So really, when you break it down, the odds greatly favor sticking with Sam this year. That is, unless you are very sure of two things. That #2 is really good and Bradford is average or worse.
First, some background. The Chargers drafted Brees in 2001 at the top of the 2nd round. He was one of those "too short to get drafted in the first round" QBs. Brees was mediocre his first 3 years. And the Chargers finished 4-12 in 2003, so they decided they needed a new QB and worked the deal with the Giants to get Rivers for Eli in the 2004 draft.
Then Brees plays great in 2004 making the pro bowl and the Chargers finished 12-4.
So now Rivers is sitting on the bench for 2 years, 2004 and 2005, and looks a bit like overkill.
But fate helps out the Chargers and Brees wrecks his shoulder in 2005, opening the door for Rivers.
The Chargers dump Brees in March 2006, Rivers starts in 2006, has a great year, helped by a great OL and Tomlinson and Gates. And SD finishes 14-2.
Brees has a great 2006 himself, and the Saints make the playoffs for the first time in 7 years. Then Brees carries the Saints to the SB and becomes a HOF QB.
So what if the Chargers stuck with Brees?
Well they could have ransomed that #1 overall pick for sure. Some food for thought here?
Thinking how this example could relate to the Rams is fascinating.
Like Brees, Bradford is an uncertainty. And like the Chargers, the Rams have an opportunity to draft a QB very high. But unlike the Chargers, the Rams have a lot more money tied up in Bradford than a 2nd round pick like Brees, so they aren't going to keep Sam if they draft a QB at #2. And they aren't going to be able to trade Sam either. They will have to cut him.
If the Rams take a QB at #2, Sam is gone, and there are 4 possible outcomes.
#2 is really good, Bradford is really good.
#2 is really good, Bradford is average or worse.
#2 is average or worse, Bradford is really good.
#2 is average or worse, Bradford is average or worse.
The only case where it pays to draft a QB at #2 is if #2 is really good AND Bradford is average or worse. Otherwise, the outcome will range from bad to really bad for the Rams. Even if they are both great, the Rams would have wasted the value of the #2 pick on a QB when they could have added more talent. And if they both stink, the Rams still wasted the value of the pick. And if Bradford goes on to be really good and #2 average or worse, well you get the idea.
So really, when you break it down, the odds greatly favor sticking with Sam this year. That is, unless you are very sure of two things. That #2 is really good and Bradford is average or worse.