Braylon Staley

[Twopointtry]

Tiebreaker System

Since I just watched Mike Matthews from Tennessee, I decided to look at his teammate, Braylon Staley. On paper, Staley should be the worst NFL prospect of the 3 WRs on their team. Chris Brazzell II is the big, tall guy who is great in the air and is a good X receiver position candidate. Matthews is bigger and more versatile than Staley and is a better deep threat. Of the 3, Staley had the worst PFN impact score in 2025. Despite being a highly ranked recruit, Staley was not projected to be a future NFL draft pick coming out of HS.

On the other hand, if you watch Tennessee play, you could make a solid argument that Staley was "the real WR1" on that team in 2025. Staley had almost exactly the same number of targets and catches as Brazzell, who was a 3rd round pick. If Staley supposedly isn't as talented as the other 2 WRs, why was he arguably the most dependable of the 3 WRs?

There's an even bigger question that had me scratching my head. Junior Sherrill and Staley are both similarly sized WRs with similar speed. You'd think they'd be ranked close to each other on draft boards. Instead, they are far apart on several boards, and not in the same direction. On 2 boards, Sherrill is a 2nd round prospect and Staley is a 5th round prospect. On 2 other boards, Staley is a Day 2 prospect and Sherrill is a late round to UDFA prospect. The only boards where they are treated similarly is where both of them are considered to be late round to UDFA prospects.

I compared Sherrill to Staley head-to-head on 8 boards and 4 of them preferred Sherrill, while the other 4 preferred Staley. Perfectly split down the middle, but with some huge spreads between them where they could be separated by 4 rounds or more in the draft. What is the explanation for this strange divergence for 2 WRs who look so similar?

If you read my profile on Sherrill, I changed his grade, because he was faster at the very beginning and very end of last season, but appeared to be slowed by injury in the middle of the season. To my eye, the exact same thing happened to Staley. [This is getting ridiculous. Was everyone hurt in 2025? It feels like almost every WR we've looked at had some type of injury.] According to draft profiles, Staley runs between 4.34 to 4.45 seconds in the 40. When I watched his games in the middle of last season, I thought there was no way this could be true. He played like a WR who ran about 4.60 seconds in the 40, maybe even slower. His route tempo, speed, suddenness, ability to jump and fight for contested catches wasn't the same throughout the year; it evaporated in the middle of the year then sprang back to life later in the season. So, exactly like Sherrill, how you grade Staley likely depends on which games you watched. If you only watched his good games, you're going to give him a higher grade. If you only watched his bad games, you probably see him as an UDFA.

What is my verdict? Between Sherrill and Staley, which one is the better NFL prospect? Can we break this 4 vs 4 deadlock? Are they essentially the same or is one of them a big draft sleeper?

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 1: Background

Name, Age: Braylon Staley. True junior, Tennessee. Turns 21 in April of 2027. Would be early entrant for 2027 draft. Sport management major. SEC Academic Honor Roll in 2024 and 2025 [See what I mean with Matthews? All the Vols made this academic list.]

Size, estimated speed: Listed 6 feet tall, 192 pounds. Draftscout 5'11 3/4'' tall, 190 pounds, 4.42 seconds in 40. Draftbuzz 4.34 seconds in 40. Brian Bosarge 4.38 to 4.45 seconds in 40, 38'' to 40'' vertical jump. Listed 180 pounds in his ESPN recruiting profile.

4-star recruit from South Carolina. 69-1,116-14 as SR in HS. State track champion in 200 meters and twice in triple jump. Played 3rd base and CF in baseball. Dad was a CB in college. Has a brother and sister. Enrolled at Tennessee in January of 2024.

Undisclosed injury in fall camp 2025. Upper body injury in 6th game of 2025 season.

Good natured, grounded, positive attitude in interviews.

2024 (4 games, redshirted): 3-21 receiving
2025 (13 starts): 68-837-6 receiving, 1 fumble. At end of regular season, 71.9 PFF receiving grade, 6 dropped passes. PFN impact score of 78.8 (65th in country) with 6.0 YAC/catch (107th in country).

Brian Bosarge: (+) Sudden explosive 2nd gear, pull-away speed, horizontal breaks at full speed, YAC threat with rapid acceleration and elite spatial processing, deep ball tracking. (-) Lean, limited route tree.
Draftscout: Day 2.
DraftBuzz 3rd round projection, 87, 14th WR. (+) Elite slot speed, 389 yards of YAC, sudden release, instinctive feel for zone windows. (-) Slight at 190 pounds, only 4 out of 13 contested catches, struggles in traffic, a pure slot WR, relies on speed to separate.
PFN board 144, simulator 147 [5th round].
Sam Teets preliminary board: 5th round tier, 163.
Clutchpoints mock draft for the NYG using PFF draft simulator: 5th round selection, saying he has speed, impressive polished route running and consistently separates.
FirstandTen Day 3 projection, 188th overall for 2027 draft, 22nd WR [6th round], ranked 42nd overall for the 2028 draft.
PFF big board: not ranked among 75 players.
Travis May 3-round mock: not selected.
Tankathon not ranked on board among 101 players and 15 WRs [which would be Day 3 to UDFA].
PFN industry consensus board: not ranked among 180 players and 23 WRs [which would make him a late round to UDFA prospect].
Shane Hallam 7-round mock draft: Late 6th round, 208.
NFLMDD simulator 228 [7th round].
Drafttek not ranked among 450 players [UDFA to try-out player or they just don't think he'll enter the 2027 draft].

 

[Twopointtry]

Nico Iamaleava leaving Tennessee was a lose-lose proposition for both sides. Someone needed to be a mediator to talk some sense into the parties. It was selfish and short-sighted for Nico to leave a team that had 3 very good WRs. He only hurt himself. On the other side, Tennessee would have been better if Nico had been their QB. The replacement QB wasn't as good. There should have been some "middle ground" that each side could have lived with where they both got the best outcome, but at least one side, maybe both, took an unreasonable stance.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 2: Strengths

Would be an early entrant, a year younger than a normal prospect. Inexperienced player with room for technical development.

Both standard receiving statistics and advanced metrics would have been better if he had been full strength in the middle of the season. My guess is that he was limited for at least half of the season. He led the team in catches and had 837 yards, so even with a very conservative estimate, I bet he would have had a 1,000-yard season, pushing Brazzell for the lead in yardage.

I don't think his hands are as bad as reflected by his dropped passes stat. In the games where he appeared to be injured, he was really limited in being able to burst and adjust to the ball, which made it difficult to catch passes that weren't right on him. This is also why I think we should discard his PFF grade and take his PFN impact score with a grain of salt. Staley's 2025 performance level doesn't fully reflect his actual potential, including his ball skills. I don't know which plays were counted as drops, but a couple of plays that might have been counted were off target throws by the QB. Technique and coordination to snatch ball out of air and protect the catch point.

Good blend of deep speed, short area agility and nuanced route running. Made plays at all 3 levels of the field.

Frequently ran option routes in their system, so he's experienced reading the CB, reading the other players in coverage and making a decision how he wants to attack the defense. QB and WR weren't always on the same page on those routes, resulting in errant passes, but about half the time I thought Staley read it correctly and the QB made the mistake. Especially for a 1st year starter who hardly played in 2024, he demonstrated solid football IQ and decision making with what type of route to run against the coverage and the CB's technique. Game is more mature than his experience level.

Very patient and cheeky style. Subtle, minimalist fakes, doesn't have extra or excessive body movements, able to beat the CB without wasting time or energy. Small angle changes bait the CB into shifting their weight, then he slips by them to win route leverage. Holds his water vs zone defenders so that they can't read his intentions. Good feel for finding zone voids. Fluid head fake at top of route.

Played mostly in the slot but also ran routes out of the backfield as a HB.

Inconsistent QB play impacted him just as it held back Matthews. The QB being inaccurate on short passes or not seeing Staley when he was open underneath robbed him of easy receiving yardage.

Natural football instincts to adapt on the fly. Intelligent COD to uncover from tight coverage in the end zone for TD. Awareness on the fly to find defender to block. Good elusive instincts to slip tackle attempts simultaneous with catch.

Flashes good effective catch radius for size. Solid catch on high throw and dug out low pass off shoelaces. Nice adjustment on pass to flat that wasn't on his frame, fluid hips and hand eye coordination to make catch. Good body control in air.

Repeatedly was clutch, unlike Matthews who had costly dropped pass at very critical moment late in a game. Game is tied, under 2 minutes left, huge 3rd & 8. Staley smokes the slot CB on out route, huge separation for critical 1st down. Final seconds of a tie game, Staley gets behind the CB on a deep post and would have been the hero, but QB's pass is badly underthrown.

While scheme didn't require him to block often, he's a solid blocker. Dependable blocker on WR screens. Effective run blocker from the slot, good knee bend, stance, smart blocker, connects with moving CBs. Willing to get dirty in the box blocking safeties. Not a soft, weak or timid player, despite small size.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 3: Weaknesses

I felt he was an UDFA level player when he appeared to be limited by injury. He simply didn't have it. Across the board, it wasn't close to good enough. His contested catch win rate felt like it was 0%, he lost every time, even if contested catch was just a short slant route. He had no burst to get to passes or adjust and box out the defender if the pass was off-target. He had poor route tempo, too slow, poor explosion off LOS. Wasn't light on his feet. Couldn't jump with any explosion. Average COD. No extra gear in open field, ran so slow it was like he wanted to get tackled. No threatening burst for YAC. Too slow releasing out of backfield as HB. Wasn't a dynamic route runner. Wasn't dangerous at any of the 3 levels of the field. Wasn't elusive after the catch, getting less YAC than expected. Didn't separate and get open on critical downs. His speed out had no speed; it was just an out. Easy for the CB to cover. He beat the CB inside on slant, the QB's pass was behind him, WR still should have been able to adjust to rescue the throw but wasn't able to win contested grab. My estimate of his effective play speed during these games would be 4.6 seconds in the 40, perhaps even slower.

Has a small frame. Feels like he's shorter than his listed size, play effectiveness is more like a 5'10'' WR. Lacks run strength and doesn't have great contact balance.

He's not overly twitchy for a slot WR. Hips are tight relative to his size. COD routes are okay, but not elite. Slipped and fell down on angle route, causing an INT.

In scheme, didn't have as diverse a route tree in the intermediate and underneath area as a typical slot WR. Team has an up-tempo, unstructured style, almost like a fast-breaking basketball team, so some of his routes or like a basketball player going 1 vs 1 in iso instead of executing a set play. On option route against zone, he should have sat down and run curl route, but went up the seam, crossing up his QB and almost causing an INT.

Too repetitive with his fakes, needs to add to his repertoire.

Fine line between being patient/deceptive and being too tentative on option routes. I feel he needs to attack faster and be more decisive on some plays.

Below average bulk and play strength. Wasn't able to hold onto pass through heavy hit over the middle. If he has durability issues and plays as poorly when hurt as he did in 2025, he's not going to stick long on an NFL roster, he's going to get waived very quickly.

Stats inflated by manufactured touches and very easy short catches. Scheme created large zone voids by stretching the defense. Protected by playing with 2 other talented WRs and team also has a draft prospect RB.

Average ceiling as blocker. Struggles to sustain blocks, lacks body mass, length and lateral quickness, so some of his blocks only consist of the initial hit, then the DB gets away from him.

Only one season of games to evaluate. Difficult player to grade, because it is unclear who he really is as a player. In 2026, he needs to show that he can consistently perform at a high level and that his body won't break down.

 

[Twopointtry]

Part 4: Draft Grade and Pro Comp

5th round grade. Parker Washington (6th round 2023, Jacksonville Jaguars, Penn State).

Washington was the very next WR selected after Puka Nacua. Last season, he had 58-847-5 for the Jags, which exceeds the yardage Washington had for any season of his career in college.

Braylon Staley definitely isn't the most explosive or most electric slot WR you've ever seen. He isn't a big, strong guy either. Still, I kind of like him, because he has good football IQ, catches the ball pretty well and is dependable. I think he's very similar to Junior Sherrill. If Staley's stock stays low, he'll likely wait for the 2028 draft but if he comes out early, he could end up outperforming his draft slot, just like Washington.

 

[Twopointtry]

I've only studied a very tiny percentage of the players potentially in the draft pool for next year's draft. Still, we've reached a point where we can do mock drafts using the players profiled. I did 2 simulations for the Rams. I'm only drafting players that I've studied, ignoring every other prospect, including some big name players I thought were unrealistic possibilities falling to our slot. No trades. After each name, I'll list where they were ranked on the simulator's board, how I graded them and a brief recap of their traits.

FirstandTen draft simulator:
Pick 63, 2nd round: Bray Hubbard, safety. 80th on their board. My grade 2nd round. (+) Very smart and technical, elite awareness and anticipation, ball skills, textbook tackling. (-) Below average size and speed, can be burned in pass coverage, inconsistent tackle finishing.

Pick 127, 4th round: Emmett Mosley V, receiver. 138th on board. My grade 4th round. (+) A slightly smaller version of Puka Nacua. Great agility, balance, coordination and body control. Sudden COD, slippery to cover, elite football IQ and instincts. Outstanding blocker, nasty and physical. Gamer, very clutch. (-) Always hurt, limited career production, too small, poor frame for NFL, average speed, not good at contested catches, limited YAC. [Mosley is a player I'd love to steal late in the draft, but since he's ranked relatively high in this simulator, I had to pick him at this slot, otherwise he'd be gone.]

Pick 159, 5th round: Adam Trick, EDGE. 160 on board. My grade 3rd round. (+) Elite range, potential LB, great in space, closing burst to QB, elite 2025 production. (-) History of injuries, too small, average pass rushing tools for NFL level, underpowered. [I don't know if he'll stay at EDGE in the pros. He might end up playing as a stand-up LB, but the Rams could use reinforcements at both positions.]

Pick 191, 5th round: Isaiah Sategna, receiver. Best Player Available on board, 184. My grade 2nd round. (+) Elite explosiveness, great punt and kick returner, sudden COD, great routes, good catch radius for his size, elusive. (-) Too many dropped passes and fumbles, weak and small, older prospect. [You might be questioning why I drafted 2 small WRs but Mosley and Sategna are 2 of my favorite players among the ones that I've studied.]

StickToTheModel draft simulator:
Pick 64, 2nd round: Anthonie Knapp, offensive guard. Best Player Available on board, 63. My grade 1st round. (+) Possibly the next Marshal Yanda. Very strong, tough and nasty, massive power, great technique, very sudden, strong grip, great anchor, disciplined pass blocker, very aware, student of game. (-) Undersized [Notice how every single player I'm drafting is small for their position? If you don't have a 1st round pick, sometimes that's the trick to finding hidden talent. There has to be something "wrong" with the player that causes the other NFL teams to pass on them, e.g. they are too small or too slow to fit the mold.] Poor athlete, limited range and mobility, not twitchy.

Pick 128, 4th round: Mike Matthews, receiver. 136 on their board. My grade 3rd round. [If I stuck to my board, I could have taken Sategna here, but I wanted to switch it up and draft a different player to add variety.] (+) Developmental potential to become another Torry Holt. Very high ceiling. Elite acceleration. (-) Too many drops, raw releases and route running. Not an elite player so far, just average, so upside is speculative in nature and not a proven asset.

Pick 160, 5th round: Christian Alliegro, inside linebacker. 203rd on board. My grade 3rd round. (+) Elite at stacking and discarding 2nd level blocks, smart, NFL ready, very physical, heavy tackler, fast blitzer. (-) Average athlete, man pass coverage, not agile or fast.

Pick 192, 5th round: Antwan Raymond, 230 on board. My grade 4th round. (+) Similar to Kyren Williams. Elite vision, great pass blocking, almost never fumbles, quick downhill cuts. (+) Poor long speed, too small, no power or leg drive, limited lateral jump cut range, scheme limited and doesn't run well outside.

 

[Twopointtry]

Earlier this month, Drafttek released a 7-round mock draft.
1. The first 4 picks were all QBs: Manning, Moore, Sayin and Carr.
2. LaNorris Sellers was Mr. Irrelevant, the very last pick in the draft, 256.
3. Ty Benefield, a safety I profiled, was a 1st round pick, 27th overall.
4. Nick Marsh, who tops my wish-list for the Rams, was taken at slot 63, immediately ahead of where the Rams pick at slot 64. Okay, that hurt, but we get a really good player in Sammy Brown. I haven't studied Brown, but this might work out that bad for the Rams. The next pick after that at 65 was Mario Craver.
5. Drafttek doesn't give us any offensive players, only defenders. I don't know anything about the other 3 defensive players they had us drafting.
6. Nyck Harbor is a 6th round pick.

This is where the players I drafted in the above-mocks were taken in Drafttek's mock:
Hubbard 54
Knapp 71
Trick 92
Sategna 134
Matthews 158
Alliegro 179
Raymond 216, late 6th round
Mosley not drafted. On Drafttek's big board, he's the 354th ranked prospect, so no surprise he's an UDFA in their mock.