What to expect from McCaffrey, Henry, Kamara, and Elliot after 2021 seasons?

[CGI_Ram]

This is a paywall article, so I can only grab bits, but the topic seems interesting.

What to expect as far as bounce back seasons for these RB’s?

Personally it would be great to have a bell cow type running back, and Akers is our 1A… but sign me up for the committee approach.

Barnwell: Are McCaffrey, Henry, Kamara and Elliott done as star RBs? Let's project their 2022 seasons

The 2021 season was a nightmare for four highly paid running backs. Will they bounce back this season or take on lesser roles?

www.espn.com

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

2021 stats: 99 carries for 442 yards and 1 TD; 37 catches (41 targets) for 343 yards and 1 TD

Let's start with the league's most expensive back. When McCaffrey signed his four-year, $64 million extension in 2020, he was the exception to arguments about signing running backs to extensions.

For one, his prodigious receiving numbers gave him a wider range of values than the typical back. More importantly, perhaps, his medical record was pristine: He hadn't missed an NFL game while lining up for more than 90% of the Panthers' offensive snaps in back-to-back seasons.

Since then, McCaffrey has played only about 21% of Carolina's offensive snaps, missing 17 of 27 possible games with ankle, shoulder and hamstring injuries. The same player who ran for 100 or more yards six times across the first nine games of the 2019 season hasn't hit that mark in a single game since. Teams reportedly called the Panthers to trade for McCaffrey this offseason, but with Carolina looking for a first-round pick and a young player, no deal was reached.

After seeing McCaffrey spend most of the past two campaigns on the sideline, my first instinct was to wonder whether the 25-year-old was likely to be back on the field more often in 2022. He is expected to hit training camp at 100 percent, but the same thing was true last year and he was then injured halfway through Week 3.

How often does a running back struggle through two injury-riddled years and make it back to his previous productivity?

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

2021 stats: 219 carries for 937 yards and 10 TDs; 18 catches (20 targets) for 154 yards and 0 TDs

I wrote quite a bit about Henry when he went down with a broken right foot at midseason. He eventually returned for the postseason but wasn't able to make much of an impact in a divisional-round loss to the Bengals. The top-seeded Titans gave him 20 carries, but the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year was able to muster only 62 yards, a touchdown and five first downs in a 19-16 defeat.

Henry should be fully healed from that foot injury for the 2022 season, which is great news. However, his efficiency had already slipped during the first half of the last season, with his production instead propped up by the largest workload in NFL history for a back through eight games. After 378 carries in 2020, he had a staggering 219 carries before his injury. And on a run-by-run basis, after looking like a force of nature in 2019 and 2020, he was ordinary:

Derrick Henry's 2021 Decline​

YEAR	ATTS	YDS/CARRY	RYOE/ATT	FIRST DOWN%	FDOE	SUCCESS RATE
2019	303	5.1	1.1	24.4%	11	41.3%
2020	378	5.4	1.1	25.9%	10	45.8%
2021	219	4.3	0.1	22.3%	-4	37.0%

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

2021 stats: 240 carries for 898 yards and 4 TDs; 47 catches (67 targets) for 439 yards and 5 TDs

McCaffrey and Henry had conspicuous drop-offs by virtue of not being available. Kamara missed four games with an MCL sprain, but his decline was more subtle because it was offset by an increased rushing workload. If we repeat the same chart we had for Henry, Kamara's dip from the 2019 and 2020 campaigns to 2021 stands out:

Alvin Kamara's 2021 Decline​

YEAR	ATTS	YDS/CARRY	RYOE/ATT	FIRST DOWN%	FDOE	SUCCESS RATE
2019	171	4.7	0.0	19.3%	-7	40.4%
2020	187	5.0	0.6	31.0%	13	43.3%
2021	240	3.7	-0.6	17.5%	-14	33.3%

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys

2021 stats: 237 carries for 1,002 yards and 10 TDs; 47 catches (65 targets) for 287 yards and 2 TDs

After Elliott's rookie season in 2016, when he posted 1,631 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, I suggested he had probably already posted his best NFL season. There's still time to go -- and I certainly didn't get everything right in that article -- but it would now be a surprise if he came close to those rushing numbers in a single season. I bring that article up to point out just how dramatically the context around Elliott has shifted over the past six seasons.

Ezekiel Elliott Vs. Tony Pollard In 2021​

PLAYER	YDS/CARRY	RYOE/ATT	XYPC	FDOE	SUCCESS RATE
Elliott	4.2	-0.1	4.4	-7	40.5%
Pollard	5.5	0.9	4.7	2	46.9%

 

[Faceplant]

It's no secret that Pollard has been the better back there for the last 2 seasons. The ewok got paaaaaid and began to "decline".... Hmmm, sounds familiar....

 

[den-the-coach]

It's no secret that Pollard has been the better back there for the last 2 seasons. The ewok got paaaaaid and began to "decline".... Hmmm, sounds familiar....

Yep I expect Tony Pollard to get the majority of the work this year, Elliot has not been the same and IMO, most fans even Cowboy fans want to see more of Pollard.

 

[Merlin]

Not gonna go back and check dates or anything but it seems like a LOT of RBs shit the bed after being paid. It seems like once they get paid that production dips almost immediately. Could just be the way the average shelf life works too but bottom line for me is never pay a RB. Ever. Draft those bastids every year to ensure you have a stable and ride whoever is hot.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

Not gonna go back and check dates or anything but it seems like a LOT of RBs shit the bed after being paid. It seems like once they get paid that production dips almost immediately. Could just be the way the average shelf life works too but bottom line for me is never pay a RB. Ever. Draft those bastids every year to ensure you have a stable and ride whoever is hot.

Yep, and all those above RBs have teams that prioritize OL. That's where I'd spend the money, and just have a stable of guys who can run through the holes and lanes. (Of course the Rams need guys who can block and catch too.)

 

[dang]

Not gonna go back and check dates or anything but it seems like a LOT of RBs shit the bed after being paid. It seems like once they get paid that production dips almost immediately. Could just be the way the average shelf life works too but bottom line for me is never pay a RB. Ever. Draft those bastids every year to ensure you have a stable and ride whoever is hot.

Merlin it took me a while but I agree. Long time Rams fans pine for the days of a workhorse RB (e.g. Dickerson, Faulk, SJax, Gurley) but smart $$$ is on a 3 deep weed and seed RB stable.

 

[Merlin]

Merlin it took me a while but I agree. Long time Rams fans pine for the days of a workhorse RB (e.g. Dickerson, Faulk, SJax, Gurley) but smart $$$ is on a 3 deep weed and seed RB stable.

I was right there with you. I was fine with them signing Gurley and for me he was the straw that broke the camel's back. Never again.

 

[RamFan503]

There is the rare RB that you throw a big contract at and Gurley seemed to be one of those cases. Hind sight is never wrong. You just don't see many like him that can actually carry an offense. Sucks that it didn't work out because he was very special.

I never viewed the ewok in his stratosphere. And though McCaffrey put up great numbers...Nope. Henry? I would put him up there but still don't think he compares well to Gurley in his prime.

And...yeah...I'm a homer but seriously...Gurley was a RB like VERY few others. The real Gurley would have meant at least another SB IMO. Goff was good enough to have a good passing game while Gurley made a good offense great.

 

[CoachAllred]

I never viewed the ewok in his stratosphere.

Same here . And that view point started the second I saw him show up at the draft
in a midriff shirt.
I loved the fact that he went to the Cowboys. Just thought they deserved each other.

 

[Neil039]

They take about taking advantage of a rookie qb‘s deal before they get paid. The same can be said for RB’s. Let them walk year 5 because you’re likely not getting your contract value after that.

Gotta wonder if it‘s the mass many put on to absorb the hits but weaken their joints at the same time.

 

[PhillyRam]

There is the rare RB that you throw a big contract at and Gurley seemed to be one of those cases. Hind sight is never wrong. You just don't see many like him that can actually carry an offense. Sucks that it didn't work out because he was very special.

I never viewed the ewok in his stratosphere. And though McCaffrey put up great numbers...Nope. Henry? I would put him up there but still don't think he compares well to Gurley in his prime.

And...yeah...I'm a homer but seriously...Gurley was a RB like VERY few others. The real Gurley would have meant at least another SB IMO. Goff was good enough to have a good passing game while Gurley made a good offense great.

Yeah, a healthy Gurley & Kupp and they would have put up at least 20 on what was a very good Pats defense. Plenty enough to win that game considering how well the Rams defense played.

 

[Giles]

Running backs should be the only position coming out of college that should be 1 year deals fully guaranteed. They seriously get the shaft as far as pay goes and a dominant runningback is damn near priceless.

 

[kurtfaulk]

Running backs should be the only position coming out of college that should be 1 year deals fully guaranteed. They seriously get the shaft as far as pay goes and a dominant runningback is damn near priceless.

one year is too short. 3 years and can't be tagged. give them a chance to earn their money.

.

 

[IE Rams]

It's no secret that Pollard has been the better back there for the last 2 seasons. The ewok got paaaaaid . . .

The Ewok

 

[MadGoat]

In general, giving a running back a large second contract is a bad idea. The situation is not fair for running backs, and really it's not fair to the teams that try to reward their backs who outperform their rookie deal. Only the ruthless benefit.

I do see a little hope for the situation with the shift towards committee backfields. Less wear and tear on young backs increases their chances of second contract production, but likely limits their ability to get a huge payday. Melvin Gordon has basically spent his whole career in a committee, and he's still producing and getting decent pay at almost 30. The tradeoff has been a lack of long-term security at a position that ends careers rapidly.

 

[Ramrocket]

Merlin it took me a while but I agree. Long time Rams fans pine for the days of a workhorse RB (e.g. Dickerson, Faulk, SJax, Gurley) but smart $$$ is on a 3 deep weed and seed RB stable.

Yep, consider me in the same boat. Just keep picking up complementary pieces to your RB crew each year and spend the money creating holes for them to run through.

 

[Selassie I]

The League has decided to gear the rules to assist the passing game and scoring. Running the ball and the clock still has it's purpose... but it isn't the game plan for winning games all by itself anymore.

You cannot rely on one RB to carry any team to the promise land in the game today. You need to have a stable of backs because most RBs can't survive a 17 game schedule and the playoffs producing at a high level. The rules and the game have changed... no team is gonna run the ball to the promise land in the game today. The league has made sure of that. Nobody wants to watch Ground and Pound today... scoring and big plays create excitement and better ratings. That is what determines the direction that a The League will take and promote.

This is the obvious reason why the running game is dying on the vine. It will never be the most important focus of a team that expects to win it all anymore. The rule changes have insured that to be reality.

Teams that rely on running the ball and running QBs are not bringing home Lombardi trophies in today's league/rules. That's just the way it is now.

Fantasy Football players have more value in stat producing RBs than the highest level NFL teams do today. There are 2 very different games today... people who are into fantasy football, and people who are into actual football. The 2 are very different from each other. Totally different if we're being honest.