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Atlanta vs. Carolina Prediction: Falcons Aim for Season Sweep of Panthers on TNF
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers "Thursday Night Football" game with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Atlanta vs. Carolina: Falcons Aim for Season Sweep of Panthers on TNF
Just 11 days after meeting in a dramatic, overtime game, the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will meet once again, this time for "Thursday Night Football" at Bank of America Stadium.The I-85 Rivalry needed an extra period for the first time in 35 matchups when they met in Week 8 — although not without controversy.
Down six points, DJ Moore caught a record 62-yard touchdown pass with just 12 seconds left but was hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for removing his helmet after leaving the end zone. After moving back 15 yards, Panthers kicker Eddy Piñeiro missed the 48-yard PAT — and later a 32-yard field goal in overtime — which gave Atlanta the chance to win.
But regardless of how their last game ended up, the result is a Falcons (4-5) team atop the NFC South this late in the season for the first time since 2016. As for the Panthers? They have the second-worst record in the NFL at 2-7.
A lot can change in a few weeks, especially in a historically topsy-turvy division like the NFC South. Can the Falcons continue their strong play and take another game from their rivals? Or will the Panthers get revenge for a game they feel they should have won two weeks ago?
Thursday Night Football: Atlanta (4-5) at Carolina (2-7)
Kickoff: Thursday, Nov. 10 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Broadcast Outlet: Prime Video
Live Stream: fuboTV (only available in Atlanta and Charlotte markets)
Spread: Falcons -3
Tickets: As low as $45 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Can Carolina stop Atlanta from running wild again?
Much of Atlanta's success this season has come from running the ball effectively. They rank fourth in rushing offense (162.9 ypg) and eclipsed the 200-yard mark for the third time last season, thanks in large part to the return of Cordarrelle Patterson.
Notably, Patterson was sidelined when these teams met two weeks ago and the Falcons still ran for 167 yards on 36 carries. Given, we're dealing with small sample sizes since he's only played in five games, but Patterson is putting up massive numbers at 5.4 yards per carry and a 39.4 percent DVOA, which leads all running backs with at least 71 rushing attempts.
Patterson's return (and rookie Tyler Allgeier's improved play) will make for a tougher challenge for an up-and-down Panthers run defense. They rank 28th in stopping the run (139.3 ypg) in large part because opponents have run on them more often (31.2 attempts per game) than all but one team. Their rate stats — 32 percent run stop win rate (sixth), 4.5 yards per attempt (16th), 4.53 adjusted line yards (17th) — are much more impressive.
Still, Joe Mixon and the Bengals ran roughshod over them last week, to the tune of 241 yards and five touchdowns on 39 carries. The Panthers won't stand a chance if the Falcons can keep ranking up five-plus yards per attempt — they'll be able to bleed the clock dry and literally run away with it.
2. Which P.J. Walker will show up?
The flip side of the Falcons running wild on the Panthers two weeks ago is that Walker had one of the best NFL games of his career. The problem is he's been borderline unplayable in most other games.
Walker became the fourth passer this season to throw for more than 300 yards against the Falcons in Week 8. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 317 yards with a touchdown and interception while only taking one sack. Amazingly, that's actually 11 more yards than he's thrown for in his other four games combined.
Now (small sample size alert) Walker has only averaged 13.5 attempts in those four games (three starts), but he's suffered from poor accuracy (58.9 percent completion rate; 22.5 percent bad-throw rate) all season long.
Considering how high the Panthers are likely to draft next season, Walker is unlikely to be the starter for long. But the Panthers need him to show up to have a chance this week, and he needs another strong game against a weak pass defense (300.0 ypg, 32nd) to secure a roster spot going forward. This is his golden opportunity.
3. The Eddy Piñeiro redemption tour
It's hard to have as bad of a day in the office as Piñeiro had in Atlanta. He had two chances to win the game and missed both. And it's not like he's had a bad season either, as he was 14-for-15 on field goals and 12-for-12 on PATs before those misses.
Oddly enough, Piñeiro never got a chance to redeem himself in last week's loss to the Bengals. He was perfect on three PATs but didn't attempt a field goal. The Panthers faced fourth-and-7 from the Bengals' eight-yard line and actually scored a touchdown, but that may not have indicated a lack of faith in the kicker as much as they were down 35 points and needed a touchdown (or five).
Given that the Falcons rank 31st in total defense and 26th in scoring defense, Piñeiro should have an opportunity to exorcise some demons against the Falcons. It should be interesting to see how much interim head coach Steven Wilks trusts him, especially from long range. With the tight margins last game, it could come down to Piñeiro once again.
Final Analysis
It's easy to say that the Panthers barely lost on the road and therefore should stand a better chance of winning at home, but the addition of Patterson is a giant difference-maker for Atlanta. And given Walker's track record this season, it's unlikely he has another giant passing day. Don't expect a blowout, but Atlanta should be able to pick up a road win to return to .500.
Prediction: Falcons 26, Panthers 24
