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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction: AFC South on the Line on Saturday Night
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South game with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: AFC South on the Line on Saturday Night
The AFC South will be on the line Saturday night when the Tennessee Titans face the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field in Duval County. The Jaguars (8-8) currently have a one-game lead over the Titans (7-9) thanks to their win in Nashville last month, but Tennessee would take the division title with a victory due to a better record in AFC South games. Should the Jags lose on Saturday night, they could still make the playoffs, but it would take losses from New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh to claim the final wild-card berth.The Titans started the season 7-3 and had as much as a four-game lead in the division halfway through November. Since then, the wheels haven't fallen off as much as the entire car has imploded. The Titans have lost six straight, along with their starting quarterback, their general manager, and their division lead. Head coach Mike Vrabel, for the second straight week, is choosing to skip over his rookie backup quarterback for a journeyman making just his second career start in six seasons — and after being with the team for less than two weeks. Despite the maelstrom that has been the last month and a half for the Titans, they still find themselves just one win away from their third straight AFC South title.
After losing five straight games in the heart of their schedule, the Jaguars were dead and buried. But just like The Undertaker, the Jags never reached the great beyond. They were just lulling their enemies to sleep, waiting for the perfect time to slowly and cryptically rise from their grave. Or something like that. I haven't watched wrestling since 1999. But either way, the Jaguars have won six of their last eight games, including four straight, leading to this, the Duval County Royal Rumble for the AFC South championship belt.
Tennessee (7-9) at Jacksonville (8-8)
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 7 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Jaguars -6
Tickets: As low as $180 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Josh Dobbs
If you haven't heard of Dobbs, that's OK. Lots of people outside of Knoxville haven't. Just know that the former Tennessee Volunteer (and Pittsburgh Steeler) Dobbs is arguably the smartest dude in the league and the Titans' newest starting quarterback, tabbed with leading Tennessee in a must-win road game for a division title. The problem is, Dobbs has only been in Nashville for about two weeks. He doesn't even know how to avoid the tourist traps and pedal taverns that litter Music City's roadways at all hours of the day, let alone the Titans' playbook.
However, last Thursday night in his first career start, and after only being a Titan for about eight days, Dobbs looked pretty good (all things considered) against the Cowboys. In all honesty, he looked as good as any other Tennessee quarterback has in the last year or so. His numbers weren't awesome — 51 percent completion rate, 232 yards, a touchdown, and an interception – but he was fearless and poised in the pocket as the Titans moved the ball better than they had in a month.
With Ryan Tannehill out for the rest of the season after undergoing ankle surgery, Dobbs made it clear last week that he is the Titans' best hope against the Jags. He's not going to be the most accurate thrower, and he's not going to be a game-breaker, but he won't be too timid to try and make plays either. Unlike rookie Malik Willis, Dobbs isn't afraid to make a read and then uncork it. And considering the Titans' options, that's going to have to suffice.
2. Trevor Lawrence … growing up before our very eyes
Lawrence has been the direct catalyst of the Jaguars' turnaround this season. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft is starting to show what was promised during his time at Clemson and, in doing so, is proving that he has the potential to be one of the NFL's best passers before too long. So far this season, Lawrence has 3,901 yards, a 66 percent completion rate, 24 touchdowns, just eight interceptions, and a top-10 passer rating of 95.4. He's been especially impressive during the Jaguars' last eight games, completing 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a 106.0 rating.
What's been most impressive about Lawrence is the development of his in-pocket analysis and decision-making. Last year, he led the league with 50 interceptable passes and threw a league-high 17 picks. This season, he's 24th in interceptable throws and has cut his interception rate in half. Of course, it helps that the protection up front has greatly improved and his receivers this season are actually good at getting open. Also, the emergence of running back (and former Clemson teammate) Travis Ettienne Jr. helps, too. But nonetheless, Lawrence is making the most of the opportunity in front of him.
On Saturday, Lawrence faces the same Titans secondary that he torched no more than a month ago for what might be his best career game to date. On Dec. 11, Lawrence completed 71 percent of his throws for 368 yards, three scores, and a 121.9 passer rating as the Jags rolled to a 14-point win in Nashville.
3. Can the Titans protect possessions?
If the Titans are to have any chance this Saturday night, they must do a better job at protecting the football than they have in recent weeks. Possessions are already far too precious for the Titans' low-scoring and limited offense, and they don't have the leeway to give the ball to a Jacksonville offense that has been playing its best ball of the season as of late.
Tennessee has turned the ball over multiple times in each of the last four games, including twice last week against Dallas and four times in the first meeting with the Jaguars four weeks ago. In total, the Titans have 10 turnovers in their last four games, after coughing it up just 11 times in the season's first 13 weeks.
This is where having Derrick Henry in the lineup is so critical. Henry missed last week against the Cowboys, along with a host of other starters, to be ready for this do-or-die matchup with Jacksonville. After a worrisome mid-season lull, Henry has been back to his typical self the last few games, surpassing the 100-yard mark in each of his last three appearances. He absolutely went off against the Jags' defense in Week 14 with a season-high 7.2 yards per carry and 121 total yards on the ground.
But the Titans will need more than just Henry amassing rushing yards to win this one. They need receivers to actually start catching passes, unlike last week when they had at least four drops. And they need to convert on third downs at a higher clip than they have been — just 36 percent, 23rd in the league.
Final Analysis
Let's make this simple. The Jaguars are playing their best football at the perfect time. Compared to Tennessee, the Jacksonville offense has more weapons, is better coached (at least offensively), and has the clear-cut advantage at quarterback. While having Derrick Henry back and well-rested will certainly make a difference, it won't be enough. Give me the Jags for the win and the AFC South championship belt.
Prediction: Jaguars 28, Titans 18
