- Joined
- Jul 1, 2010
- Messages
- 18,000
Well technically on another website, but linking to another website by Bill Simmons on the front page.
It had a picture of Sam Bradford so hey...let's see this! Then I read about the 8 worst teams in the league...
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9626548/bill-barnwell-bottom-eight-teams-nfl-2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/962 ... s-nfl-2013</a>
Here is the Rams blurb:
It had a picture of Sam Bradford so hey...let's see this! Then I read about the 8 worst teams in the league...
<a class="postlink" href="http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9626548/bill-barnwell-bottom-eight-teams-nfl-2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/962 ... s-nfl-2013</a>
Here is the Rams blurb:
St. Louis Rams
2012 Record: 7-8-1
Pythagorean Wins: 6.6 (overperformed by 0.4 wins, 12th-luckiest in league)
Record in Games Decided by Seven Points or Fewer: 4-3-1 (0.571, ninth-best in league)
Strength of Schedule: 0.555 (toughest in league)
Turnover Margin: Minus-1 (tied for 17th in league)
2013 Out-of-Division Schedule: AFC South, NFC South, vs. Bears, at Cowboys
The difference between Sam Bradford throwing to Danny Amendola and Sam Bradford throwing to anybody else has been very stark during Bradford's brief NFL career. He gets about as much on each throw regardless — 6.1 yards per attempt to Amendola, 6.3 yards per attempt to all the others. Where he's differed has been in completion percentage. Bradford has completed 66.5 percent of his passes to Amendola, which has helped make his numbers look better and left him with a safety valve during those times when Amendola and Bradford were both healthy. When throwing to other receivers, Bradford has completed just 56.8 percent of his passes. In other words, he turns from an efficient-if-conservative checkdown artist with Amendola into the 2012 version of Blaine Gabbert without him.
At this point, Bradford is basically a ruthless checkdown artist; the Rams are the ones paying millions of dollars to put something they don't really understand or have any use for up on their wall right now, and since they've already done it once, they keep doing it. Bradford routinely doesn't see open receivers downfield or doesn't see them until the window is already closing. Just 6.8 percent of his passes since joining the league have gone for 20 yards or more, which is the lowest rate in the league for passers with 1,000 attempts or more over that time frame. The average rate for those quarterbacks is 9.3 percent, which tells you just how little of an impact Bradford has had. You can be a good quarterback in this league by checking down a lot — Matt Ryan is at only 7.6 percent, and Peyton Manning is barely ahead of him at 8.4 percent — but you need to complete 65 percent of your passes in doing so to repeatedly move the chains. Bradford is at 58 percent. If you want to succeed while completing 58 percent of your passes, you have to be like Cam Newton, who leads the league in this stat by turning 12.2 percent of his pass attempts into 20-plus-yard gains. If you're not completing a lot of passes and those passes aren't going very far, you're not pushing your team in the right direction.
The Rams can make a case that Bradford has his best supporting cast ever. He has Jake Long in at left tackle and should hopefully get a full year out of Scott Wells at center. Amendola left for New England, but there are a variety of options available to replace him, including big-money free agents (Jared Cook) and top-10 draft picks (Tavon Austin) and their college buddies (Stedman Bailey). Of course, they've given Bradford a variety of wideouts and some expected line improvements in the past, and they haven't been of much use.
The one thing from their statistical profile you would expect to see make their life easier would be that top-ranked schedule above, but the Rams still have to play the Seahawks and 49ers and line up, at least, against the Cardinals. That's not enough alone to make St. Louis's schedule the toughest in football for another season, but they should still be in the top five or so.
Best-Case Scenario: Ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn each finish with a dozen sacks, Bradford becomes fast friends with Austin and Cook out of the slot, and when one of the NFC West teams disappoints, the Rams win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs.
Worst-Case Scenario: Bradford blows and the Rams waste their season trying to get to 2014 and acquire their quarterback of the future.