The Running Back Paradox (with Advanced Metrics)

[CGI_Ram]

This video is very in-depth and well worth the watch. This video makes it clear it’s a good thing we didn’t trade for Jonathan Taylor.

The summary is at 23:35. But again, the whole thing is well done and makes a great case against paying running backs. It is fairly numbers intense, but he summarizes everything really well. Great video.

PLOT; Remember when the running backs were holding TEAMS calls to strategize how to be paid their worth? This video uses metrics to conclude RB’s are ALL over paid after their rookie deal.


View: https://youtu.be/eYJyUA08uZs?si=ac9kWk0fiPCd6W6u

 

[Corbin]

This video is very in-depth and well worth the watch. This video makes it clear it’s a good thing we didn’t trade for Jonathan Taylor.

The summary is at 23:35. But again, the whole thing is well done and makes a great case against paying running backs. It is fairly numbers intense, but he summarizes everything really well. Great video.

PLOT; Remember when the running backs were holding TEAMS calls to strategize how to be paid their worth? This video uses metrics to conclude RB’s are ALL over paid after their rookie deal.


View: https://youtu.be/eYJyUA08uZs?si=ac9kWk0fiPCd6W6u

Let’s be honest for the money they gave Taylor you can continuously draft a premier RB and the 14 million they gave Taylor is the salary for 3 -4 pretty damned good players on the defense etc. Then get a 3-4 Rounder as compensation when he leaves if you don’t trade him. Why is this a conversation?

 

[Kupped]

The Taylor contract makes perfect sense to protect and win with AR on a rookie deal.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

I think o-linemen are way more valuable than backs, even in terms of the running game.

 

[tempests]

Diminishing returns with increased wear and tear isn't exclusive to running backs. It's not like players at other positions get healthier and more durable as they age.

They're simply an easy target right now.

Teams ask their running back to carry the ball 20 times a game for them, that player should get paid. Trying asking a WR or TE to catch 20 passes a game and see how much noise they make about being under-compensated.

 

[CGI_Ram]

I have been a proponent of adding Taylor. I think I was wrong. These metrics make sense to me.

 

[TexasRam]

The video makes a lot of good points.

It’s all about the QB’s and the pass game but that has been apparent forever. There is a reason certain QB’s are constantly in the playoffs over decades despite who their RBs are.

But you also need O- line pass pro to go deep.

 

[leoram]

The threat of a successful run manipulates a defense and therefore makes the passing game more effective. With the ability to run, safeties and linebackers have to make choices not applicable when the defense KNOWS the play will be a pass.

While it's true that passing efficiency is what produces points and the Rams won a Super Bowl without an effective running game that once, we saw in Cincinnati what happens to a passing game when the run is abandoned.

My favorite part of this video is the breakdown of how important pass blocking is to the RB position. To me, this is where Kyren has been stellar and why McVay wants him on the field. It isn't sexy and doesn't get you a Pro Bowl, but protecting Stafford should be job one and makes Williams indispensible.

 

[HitStick]

Let’s be honest for the money they gave Taylor you can continuously draft a premier RB and the 14 million they gave Taylor is the salary for 3 -4 pretty damned good players on the defense etc. Then get a 3-4 Rounder as compensation when he leaves if you don’t trade him. Why is this a conversation?

If it were that easy to get a premier running back, every team would have two.

 

[SteezyEndo]

Our Offense is pretty dynamic and it will be even more with Kupp back in the mix. Our current RBs now can stir up some problems for defenses. Don’t need crazy expensive RBs anyways they are targeted more. Lowkey threats like KDub and Rivers are overlooked and we can take advantage of that.

 

[Corbin]

If it were that easy to get a premier running back, every team would have two.

Are their premier RB’s in every draft? How many in every draft? Are you going to use them correctly or waste them with a block headed defensive coach?

Raheem Mostrat 249 yards in 4 games
D Von Achane 309 yards in 4 games

Are either one of them premier backs? No.

They sure as hell are producing like premier backs combined, young, eager, low mileage, plenty of gas in the tank with premier acceleration still and had for a 2 year 5.6 mill dollar contract and a 3 round pick 21 RB suffices as a premier RB filler.

The point is you always have a juiced up running game, cheap with limited resources dedicated to it and a never ending supply of filler young, cheap, and eager RB’s coming out or FA’s.

 

[HitStick]

Are their premier RB’s in every draft? How many in every draft? Are you going to use them correctly or waste them with a block headed defensive coach?

Raheem Mostrat 249 yards in 4 games
D Von Achane 309 yards in 4 games

Are either one of them premier backs? No.

They sure as hell are producing like premier backs combined, young, eager, low mileage, plenty of gas in the tank with premier acceleration still and had for a 2 year 5.6 mill dollar contract and a 3 round pick 21 RB suffices as a premier RB filler.

The point is you always have a juiced up running game, cheap with limited resources dedicated to it and a never ending supply of filler young, cheap, and eager RB’s coming out or FA’s.

But the same can’t be said about every position? There’s late round players that ball out at every position, every single year. I just don’t understand why people have soured on a solid running back in place of cheap “may work may not” type backs when our offense can be taken to a new level with a true threat out of the backfield

 

[Allen2McVay]

Are there premier RB’s in every draft? How many in every draft?

Raheem Mostrat 249 yards in 4 games
De'Von Achane 309 yards in 4 games

Are either one of them premier backs? No.

Achane may be special. Those numbers are actually over the past two games.

Achane had one carry for 5 yards in Miami's first two games.

The last two weeks ... 304 yards! ... on just 26 carries!! ... that's almost 12-yards-per-rush!!! ... YIKES!

 

[dieterbrock]

But the same can’t be said about every position? There’s late round players that ball out at every position, every single year. I just don’t understand why people have soured on a solid running back in place of cheap “may work may not” type backs when our offense can be taken to a new level with a true threat out of the backfield

Running backs shelf life is considerably shorter than all other positions. Not even debatable.
They’re all on the downside of their career when they are looking for a second contract
Not the case with any other position.

 

[Corbin]

Running backs shelf life is considerably shorter than all other positions. Not even debatable.
They’re all on the downside of their career when they are looking for a second contract
Not the case with any other position.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Statistically it proves itself out, numbers don’t lie.

 

[kurtfaulk]

.

Hmmm, Gurley on his contract or the rbs the Rams have had since? I'm taking Gurley every day.

Achane is a unicorn. You can't expect to hit on that. That's like expecting to win the lottery.

JT is the absolute best rb the colts can have in their backfield right now. They were smart to finally pay him so he can stay their with their franchise qb.

.

 

[rdlkgliders]

.

Hmmm, Gurley on his contract or the rbs the Rams have had since? I'm taking Gurley every day.

Achane is a unicorn. You can't expect to hit on that. That's like expecting to win the lottery.

JT is the absolute best rb the colts can have in their backfield right now. They were smart to finally pay him so he can stay their with their franchise qb.

Achane looked the part which is why I liked him a lot, he runs hard and can run between the tackles even at his size hence the short yardage carries and TD's but yeah it is still a crapshoot. CMC is showing just how valuable a RB can be. A great RB is a huge asset and incredible weapon and a difference maker. The problem is they often don't last long and there aren't many of them. If you don't have a difference maker not investing is likely smart, if you have one keep them, Gurley was an anomaly.

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

.

Hmmm, Gurley on his contract or the rbs the Rams have had since? I'm taking Gurley every day.

Achane is a unicorn. You can't expect to hit on that. That's like expecting to win the lottery.

JT is the absolute best rb the colts can have in their backfield right now. They were smart to finally pay him so he can stay their with their franchise qb.

.

Gurley in his prime was a once in a generation talent who could do everything at an elite level.

 

[PARAM]

Running backs shelf life is considerably shorter than all other positions. Not even debatable.
They’re all on the downside of their career when they are looking for a second contract
Not the case with any other position.

They have become the Catch-22.
A good RB has great value to an offense but you can't pay them like that.

1st round backs the last 6 drafts:

Bijan Robinson
Jahmar Gibbs
_______________
Najee Harris
Travis Entiene
_______________
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
_________________
Josh Jacobs
________________________
Saquon Barkley
Rachad Penny
Sony Michel

Just 9.

2nd round (15):

Zack Charbonnet
___________________
Breece Hall
Kenneth Walker
James Cook
___________________
Javonte Williams
DeAndre Swift
Jonathan Taylor
Cam Akers
JK Dobbins
AJ Dillon
__________________
Miles Sanders
__________________
Nick Chubb
Ronald Jones
Kerryon Johnson
Derrius Guise

No matter where you draft them, the risk of injury is great. And no matter where you draft them, if they manage to stay healthy and produce, the contract squabbles are there. So is it wise to draft a RB high in a passing league? 24 drafted in the first two rounds over a 6 year period (6 1/4%). How many "healthy" stars? Josh Jacobs?

If you go back to 2017.....1st Rd: Fournette, McCaffrey, 2nd Rd: Dalvin Cook, Mixon.....only 2 of 28 RBs drafted in the first two rounds, helped the team who drafted them win a SB. Cam Akers and Sony Michel