The McVay Offense: Scoring

[PARAM]

Including postseason:

From 2017 to 2019 the Rams scored 30 points 21 times (18-3), 40 points 5 times (4-1) and 50 points twice (2-0).
That's 28 times scoring 30 or more in 52 games. 53.8%
From 2020 to date the Rams have scored 30 points 17 times (16-1), 40 points none and 50 points once (1-0)
18 times scoring 30 or more in 63 games. 28.6%
That's a huge difference.

BIG outputs (40+) are virtually non-existent. The Rams scored 40 or more points 5 times in the first 28 games under McVay, 3 in the last 87. We scored 50 points twice in his first 28 games, once in his last 87. To put things in a different perspective the Rams scored 35 or more 14 times in 2017 and 2018 (36 games; 38.9%), 7 times from 2019 to date (79 games; 8.9%).

Is the drastic change due to the OL? It's certainly not the QB. Stafford is by all accounts a more accomplished QB than Goff and yet, the offensive production hasn't equated to high scoring. Or is the change due to the lack of a stud RB? I don't buy "the league has figured out McVay". That's the easy answer and I think it's something different.

 

[Jacobarch]

When you're the hot offense in the league the NFL is going to adjust to you. Teams also started copying mcvay and our offense. Now that the league has caught up our offense it looks pedestrian. Sure players help but the talent level isn't far off from what we had in 2018.

The NFL defense has evolved, and mcvay really hasn't

 

[CGI_Ram]

Including postseason:

From 2017 to 2019 the Rams scored 30 points 21 times (18-3), 40 points 5 times (4-1) and 50 points twice (2-0).
That's 28 times scoring 30 or more in 52 games. 53.8%
From 2020 to date the Rams have scored 30 points 17 times (16-1), 40 points none and 50 points once (1-0)
18 times scoring 30 or more in 63 games. 28.6%
That's a huge difference.

BIG outputs (40+) are virtually non-existent. The Rams scored 40 or more points 5 times in the first 28 games under McVay, 3 in the last 87. We scored 50 points twice in his first 28 games, once in his last 87. To put things in a different perspective the Rams scored 35 or more 14 times in 2017 and 2018 (36 games; 38.9%), 7 times from 2019 to date (79 games; 8.9%).

Is the drastic change due to the OL? It's certainly not the QB. Stafford is by all accounts a more accomplished QB than Goff and yet, the offensive production hasn't equated to high scoring. Or is the change due to the lack of a stud RB? I don't buy "the league has figured out McVay". That's the easy answer and I think it's something different.

I hadn’t seen that before. Those numbers jump out.

Hmm. It does seem to point to scheme fatigue. Thats a lot of data. And to your point Stafford / Goff QB play wouldn’t seem to be the reason.

 

[TXRams86]

When you're the hot offense in the league the NFL is going to adjust to you. Teams also started copying mcvay and our offense. Now that the league has caught up our offense it looks pedestrian. Sure players help but the talent level isn't far off from what we had in 2018.

The NFL defense has evolved, and mcvay really hasn't

Pretty much this. Lack of run game, 11 personnel over 90% of the time and the same (arguably worse) offensive plan every week makes it easy for defenses to game plan against us. No quick passing game, probably worst in the league screen game and only a handful of designed TE passes - everything is 15-20 (or more) yards down the field. Head scratching really.

 

[Faceplant]

This matches what my eyes have been telling me for years. Mcvay's offensive peak was 2018, with a healthy Gurley.

 

[snackdaddy]

The offensive line has been well below average the past couple years. That might have something to do with it. They seem overmatched against stronger pass rushing teams. Even when completely healthy. This year they've been healthier than last year. After scoring 30 in the first game the only time they got close is when they got an extra 6 points in overtime. Otherwise low twenties has been the best they can do.

 

[PARAM]

I don't buy the "league has caught up to them". How come the league hasn't caught up to KC? This year they don't look as dominant as years past but is that because "the league has figured Andy Reid and Mahomes out" or because their WR corp sucks? I think the lack of a stud RB is what's hurting the Rams offense. McVay's offense, despite being a passing offense could really use a guy to bring the defense up towards the LOS. When Gurley was healthy, defenses had to respect the run or we'd kill them on the ground. The OL plays a part to be sure but IMHO, not as much as the guy who can gash you over and over again.

 

[PARAM]

Pretty much this. Lack of run game, 11 personnel over 90% of the time and the same (arguably worse) offensive plan every week makes it easy for defenses to game plan against us. No quick passing game, probably worst in the league screen game and only a handful of designed TE passes - everything is 15-20 (or more) yards down the field. Head scratching really.

I don't think 11 personnel has anything to do with it besides the fact that 1 isn't Gurley. How much 11 P did we play with Gurley?

 

[TXRams86]

I don't buy the "league has caught up to them". How come the league hasn't caught up to KC? This year they don't look as dominant as years past but is that because "the league has figured Andy Reid and Mahomes out" or because their WR corp sucks? I think the lack of a stud RB is what's hurting the Rams offense. McVay's offense, despite being a passing offense could really use a guy to bring the defense up towards the LOS. When Gurley was healthy, defenses had to respect the run or we'd kill them on the ground. The OL plays a part to be sure but IMHO, not as much as the guy who can gash you over and over again.

I agree that a stud RB would help but how many times are we all cussing at the TV seeing McVay give away the play by going empty? Our line hasn't been the greatest these past couple of seasons but McVay has done nothing to make it easy on them. Where are the RB screens? Where is the quick passing game? Why did we traditionally run only on give up plays? While I can't discount the line has been bad I think a lot of our offensive failures lie on McVay's stubborn offensive scheme and play calling.

 

[Mojo Ram]

RB’s aren’t thrown to

Our hot route tree appears non existent

Screen game is rarely called at the right time

If we don’t get 20+ yard completions we get 2 yards or nothing

Not enough slant game

We run a decent amount of jet motion but usually just drop back and throw it

Not enough trick plays, almost none. Who cares if “X player” of ours is a former QB…he ain’t throwing it EVER to ANYONE on a trick play

Empty sets aren’t very effective and for the love of Geezus don’t call them on 3rd and short

Tell your QB to spread the ball around

Use the run as an attack rather than a set up for play action that you only call when we AREN’T running the ball successfully. Smfh

Stop with the 11 personnel every time all the time. It was awesome four years ago.

Use your TE’s. Why do we need more than one on the roster at this point if you’re going to never go 12 personnel or jumbo…

Let your OL eat

And lastly, instead of trying find 50 ways to stress their safeties with our best WR, maybe just attack their entire defense with the one thing they can’t handle.

Maybe they can’t stop the run, inside run, outside run, defending the flat maybe. Run them into the ground.

Maybe their LB’s are susceptible to defending TE’s. Use our TE’s.

Maybe their secondary is small. Use our big WR’s.

Maybe their secondary is thin. Use empty sets.

I’m not smarter than McVay but fuck man…EVOLVE and DIVERSIFY

 

[TXRams86]

I don't think 11 personnel has anything to do with it besides the fact that 1 isn't Gurley. How much 11 P did we play with Gurley?

Yes we ran plenty of 11 personnel with Gurley but we haven't moved onto more variety since his departure. Things that could help out our offense as a whole, like going 12 and keeping some TE's in to help block.

 

[TXRams86]

RB’s aren’t thrown to

Our hot route tree appears non existent

Screen game is rarely called at the right time

If we don’t get 20+ yard completions we get 2 yards or nothing

Not enough slant game

We run a decent amount of jet motion but usually just drop back and throw it

Not enough trick plays, almost none. Who cares if “X player” of ours is a former QB…he ain’t throwing it EVER to ANYONE on a trick play

Empty sets aren’t very effective and for the love of Geezus don’t call them on 3rd and short

Tell your QB to spread the ball around

Use the run as an attack rather than a set up for play action that you only call when we AREN’T running the ball successfully. Smfh

Stop with the 11 personnel every time all the time. It was awesome four years ago.

Use your TE’s. Why do we need more than one on the roster at this point if you’re going to never go 12 personnel or jumbo…

Let your OL eat

And lastly, instead of trying find 50 ways to stress their safeties with our best WR, maybe just attack their entire defense with the one thing they can’t handle.

Maybe they can’t stop the run, inside run, outside run, defending the flat maybe. Run them into the ground.

Maybe their LB’s are susceptible to defending TE’s. Use our TE’s.

Maybe their secondary is small. Use our big WR’s.

Maybe their secondary is thin. Use empty sets.

I’m not smarter than McVay but fuck man…EVOLVE and DIVERSIFY

 

[Mojo Ram]

One more thing.

A one score game in the first quarter is the same as a one score game in the second half.

Calm down with the panic playcalling. You don’t have to tear up the gameplan down 10-3 early in the 2nd qtr.

Except for 3rd and a mile…everyone knows you won’t panic in that situation. It’s a sure give up play via the WR screen or hand off.

 

[Kupped]

I'm going with the simple answer.

Having the best running back in the game, one who can turn screen passes into 75 yard TDs, is the difference.

The Rams do not have a truly explosive playmaker on the roster. We were just starting to see what that could look like with Odell at WR and a decent run game when they got Sony back in 21.

Maybe with Puka, Kupp and Williams.. we might see something approaching decent. But without a true game-breaker, I don't see them reaching those heights.

 

[PARAM]

I agree that a stud RB would help but how many times are we all cussing at the TV seeing McVay give away the play by going empty? Our line hasn't been the greatest these past couple of seasons but McVay has done nothing to make it easy on them. Where are the RB screens? Where is the quick passing game? Why did we traditionally run only on give up plays? While I can't discount the line has been bad I think a lot of our offensive failures lie on McVay's stubborn offensive scheme and play calling.

Here's the difference between having a stud RB and not.....

2017: 518 pass att + 28 sacks = 546 drops / 454 rushes @ 4.3 per
2018: 568 pass att + 33 sacks = 601 drops / 459 rushes @ 4.9 per
2019: 632 pass att + 22 sacks = 654 drops / 401 rushes @ 3.7 per
2020: 590 pass att + 25 sacks = 615 drops / 473 rushes @ 4.3 per
2021: 607 pass att +31 sacks = 638 drops / 420 rushes @ 4.0 per
2022: 531 pass att + 59 sacks = 590 drops / 411 rushes @ 4.0 per

We can forget 2022 because nothing was right. But those other 5 years? In 2017 and 2018 our OL was good but Gurley was great (535 att @ 4.8 per / 30 TDs + 10 receiving TDs). Think about that for a second. 40 TDs from the #1 RB position. There are teams who don't score 40 TDs in a season from all their offensive skill guys! In 2020 our line was better than 2019, 2021 and 2022 and we ran more than any other year under McVay. But Goff got the blame and to some degree, deserved it (too many checkdowns). I believe we need a stud RB and I'm not saying Kyren Williams isn't the guy. With a little more seasoning, he should produce on the ground and as a receiver, which will make defenses respect the run much, much more. That should open up the passing windows and with Kupp, Puka and Tutu they should fry defenses again.

 

[Jacobarch]

I don't buy the "league has caught up to them". How come the league hasn't caught up to KC? This year they don't look as dominant as years past but is that because "the league has figured Andy Reid and Mahomes out" or because their WR corp sucks? I think the lack of a stud RB is what's hurting the Rams offense. McVay's offense, despite being a passing offense could really use a guy to bring the defense up towards the LOS. When Gurley was healthy, defenses had to respect the run or we'd kill them on the ground. The OL plays a part to be sure but IMHO, not as much as the guy who can gash you over and over again.

Tell me when Andy Reid runs 11 personnel over 90% of the time. Then we'll talk

 

[PARAM]

I agree with the "diversify and adjust" complaints. Sometimes it seems like square peg, round hole with the RB position. But that changed when KW started playing well. We weren't up to 30 PPG but we were playing with a rookie WR (no matter how great he played) and a #3 as a #2 (Tutu) and scoring 24.5 PPG. Kyren and Kupp have played 2 games together. Let's see what the offense looks like with KW, Kupp, Puka and Tutu over the course of 6 or 7 games. I'm guessing it will be better.

 

[PARAM]

Tell me when Andy Reid runs 11 personnel over 90% of the time. Then we'll talk

You think 11 P has everything to do with it? We ran 11 P for much of 2017 and 2018 and NOBODY could figure it out. Why? GURLEY!! Nobody has figured out KC and all they do is look for Kelce, run Pacheco or Mahomes scrambles. $20 bucks says you can't name the KC WR corp without checking ESPN. It's got nothing to do with 11P. It has everything to do with the lack of a versatile RB.....but we MAY have that now in KW.

 

[Jacobarch]

You think 11 P has everything to do with it? We ran 11 P for much of 2017 and 2018 and NOBODY could figure it out. Why? GURLEY!! Nobody has figured out KC and all they do is look for Kelce, run Pacheco or Mahomes scrambles. $20 bucks says you can't name the KC WR corp without checking ESPN. It's got nothing to do with 11P. It has everything to do with the lack of a versatile RB.....but we have that now in KW.

Read my responding statement above. I explained it pretty well

 

[Kupped]

Tell me when Andy Reid runs 11 personnel over 90% of the time. Then we'll talk

Tell me when Andy Reid won a Super Bowl without Mahomes.