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Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Prediction: First Place on the Line in the NFC East on SNF
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Sunday night game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Although the Philadelphia Eagles are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL, they may not lead their division for much longer. First place in the NFC East will be on the line when they host the Dallas Cowboys on "Sunday Night Football."Coming into the season, few would have predicted such high stakes for this game. The NFC East has been one of the worst divisions in the league for the last half-decade, but suddenly it's home to three teams with at least four wins.
The Eagles would obviously remain in first with a win, but the Cowboys can propel themselves into a first-place tie, where they'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Philly. And don't forget about the Giants, who are also lurking at 4-1.
After a few blowout wins, the Eagles have had a some close calls against teams with losing records. They came back from down 14 to beat the Jaguars 29-22 and then edged the Cardinals by three (20-17) on the road last week.
Dallas, meanwhile, continues to win with Cooper Rush at quarterback behind a monstrous defense. He's certainly no Dak Prescott, who returned to practice this week but will not play, but he's avoided mistakes and kept Dallas in the game.
The Cowboys have won three straight in this series, but can they pull off one more victory with Rush? Or will the Eagles reaffirm their status as NFC front-runners with a signature prime-time win?
Sunday Night Football: Dallas (4-1) at Philadelphia (5-0)
Kickoff: Sunday, Oct. 2 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Eagles -6
Three Things to Watch
1. Cowboys' pass rush vs. Eagles' offensive line
Few teams have been able to stop Dallas' pass rush this season, but the Eagles may be capable of doing so. Well, that is if they can get back to full health by game time. Their unit is seventh in pass block win rate (65 percent) but center Jason Kelce (ankle), tackle Jordan Mailata (shoulder), and guard Isaac Seumalo (ankle) have all been limited at practice this week and are questionable to play.
Playing with a hobbled offensive line will make an already challenging task near impossible. The Cowboys are one of the top pass-rushing teams no matter how you slice it. They're second in sacks (20), first in pass rush win rate (56 percent), first in pressure rate (33.6 percent), and third in hurry rate (11.5 percent).
Stopping Micah Parsons, who would be an MVP candidate if defensive players were seriously considered, is task No. 1. Dallas has cut him loose instead of dropping him into coverage, and he paces the league with a 33 percent pass-rush win rate while tying for the league lead with six sacks. And he's only in Year 2.
But even beyond Parsons, Dorance Armstrong (four sacks) and DeMarcus Lawrence (three) have benefitted from the extra attention teams have to pay to Parsons. And if anything, Lawrence could be in for a big game, as his 29 percent pass rush win rate is second only to his teammate in the NFC.
2. Can Dallas stop Philly's rushing attack?
For as good as the Cowboys are rushing the passer, they've got room to improve when it comes to stopping the run. They rank 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (117.6) and 21st in yards allowed per attempt (4.7), but even those middling numbers have benefitted from playing just one team (Giants) that ranks higher than 25th in rushing yards per game.
With apologies to those Giants, the Eagles will be by far the toughest rushing attack Dallas has had to face this season. Miles Sanders is looking resurgent (4.8 ypc) and Kenneth Gainwell is one of the better backups in the league. But the real challenge comes with Jalen Hurts, who is toting the ball an astonishing 13.6 times per game and is tied for second among all players with six rushing touchdowns.
One crucial area the Cowboys will need to step up in is short-yardage situations. Opponents have converted 86 percent of runs on third or fourth down with two or fewer yards to go, the highest mark in the league. Dallas also needs to improve its 16 percent stuff rate, which ranks 21st in the NFL, although it may have an opportunity to improve if Philly's line is not fully healthy.
3. Will the Cooper Rush experience finally come to an end?
Rush has to come back down to earth at some point, right? The Cowboys are hoping that by not asking him to do too much, they can squeeze one more win out of him. Rush has completed more than 20 passes in one of his four starts (21 vs. the Giants) but is fifth in QBR (6.76) in large part thanks to his zero interceptions and five sacks taken in that span.
The Eagles' defense is formidable on the front line and back end, so Rush may run into trouble if he has to make bigger plays. His best route to success will likely be doing what he's done: get rid of the ball quickly (2.55 sec. avg. time to throw, fourth quickest) and expose Philly's mediocre linebacking crew.
Of course, the flip side of getting rid of the ball quickly is that Rush will likely be dealing with tighter windows. According to Next Gen Stats, 21.2 percent of Rush's passes have been into tight coverage, which makes him the fourth-most aggressive passer in the NFL. Some of that has to do with a lack of separation his receivers generate, but the Eagles have a rather opportunistic secondary that already has six interceptions this season, so they will be ready to pounce.
Final Analysis
This game would be different if Prescott were playing, but the Cowboys still have a path to victory with Rush under center. The Dallas defense is no joke and will keep this to a low-scoring game. If the Cowboys can run the ball effectively and shorten the game, they'll have a chance to steal one on the road. Still, the Eagles are a more complete team this week and should have enough to pull out a sixth straight victory.
Prediction: Eagles 17, Cowboys 13
