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I thought some might find this information interesting. A lot has been made about the Rams need for a "#1 WR" in the draft because they currently don't have one. Often, people are arguing that Sam needs one to thrive in 2014. I believe this begs the question, is it realistic to expect a rookie to be able to be a #1 WR?
Another point that has been made is that we have to draft a WR with one of our first round picks or else there's no point because WRs outside the first round won't contribute enough to be #1 WRs. Is this actually true?
Here is some very interesting data from 2000 to the present.
Rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs
1. Mike Williams - 11 TDs (3rd Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 1100+ receiving yards
1. Anquan Boldin - 1377 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Michael Clayton - 1193 yards (1st Round #15 Pick)
Rookie WRs with 1000 to 1099 receiving yards
1. A.J. Green - 1057 yards (1st Round #4 Pick)
2. Keenan Allen - 1046 yards (3rd Round Pick)
3. Marques Colston - 1038 yards (7th Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 900 to 999 receiving yards
1. Dwayne Bowe - 993 yards (1st Round #23 Pick)
2. Eddie Royal - 980 yards (2nd Round Pick)
3. Andre Johnson - 976 yards (1st Round #3 Pick)
4. Mike Williams - 964 yards (3rd Round Pick)
5. Julio Jones - 959 yards (1st Round #6 Pick)
6. DeSean Jackson - 912 yards (2nd Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 800 to 899 receiving yards
1. Chris Chambers - 883 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Justin Blackmon - 865 yards (1st Round #5 Pick)
3. T.Y. Hilton - 861 yards(3rd Round Pick)
4. Lee Evans - 843 yards(1st Round #13 Pick)
5. Torrey Smith - 841 yards (2nd Round Pick)
6. Santonio Holmes - 824 yards(1st Round #25 Pick)
7. Roy Williams - 817 yards (1st Round #7 Pick)
8. Josh Gordon - 805 yards (2nd Round Pick)
9. DeAndre Hopkins - 802 yards (1st Round #27 Pick)
That's 20 total players. Of the 20, 10 are first rounders(50%). But only 2 of the 5 1000+ yard WRs are first rounders(40%). Of the 20, 5 are top 10 picks(25%). Of the 20, 6 are second round picks(30%). Of the 20, 4 were drafted in the third round or later(20%).
800 yards is not a #1 WR benchmark. It's more of a #2 WR benchmark. So I'd say the expectation that a rookie will come in and be our immediate #1 WR is probably unrealistic. Being a solid #2 WR is a more realistic expectation from a highly drafted rookie.
In fact, over the last 50 years, only 3 rookie WRs managed to put up 1000+ yards AND 10+ TDs. They were Randy Moss of the Vikings, Bullet Bob Hayes of the Cowboys, and John Jefferson of the San Diego Chargers.
Yes, I know there's a big name missing from the list. Calvin Johnson put up 756 yards as a rookie WR in Detroit.
I'd also say that it's fair to conclude that there will be options outside of the top 15 picks and even the first round this year that can contribute similarly to the top drafted WRs as rookies.
Another point that has been made is that we have to draft a WR with one of our first round picks or else there's no point because WRs outside the first round won't contribute enough to be #1 WRs. Is this actually true?
Here is some very interesting data from 2000 to the present.
Rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs
1. Mike Williams - 11 TDs (3rd Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 1100+ receiving yards
1. Anquan Boldin - 1377 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Michael Clayton - 1193 yards (1st Round #15 Pick)
Rookie WRs with 1000 to 1099 receiving yards
1. A.J. Green - 1057 yards (1st Round #4 Pick)
2. Keenan Allen - 1046 yards (3rd Round Pick)
3. Marques Colston - 1038 yards (7th Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 900 to 999 receiving yards
1. Dwayne Bowe - 993 yards (1st Round #23 Pick)
2. Eddie Royal - 980 yards (2nd Round Pick)
3. Andre Johnson - 976 yards (1st Round #3 Pick)
4. Mike Williams - 964 yards (3rd Round Pick)
5. Julio Jones - 959 yards (1st Round #6 Pick)
6. DeSean Jackson - 912 yards (2nd Round Pick)
Rookie WRs with 800 to 899 receiving yards
1. Chris Chambers - 883 yards (2nd Round Pick)
2. Justin Blackmon - 865 yards (1st Round #5 Pick)
3. T.Y. Hilton - 861 yards(3rd Round Pick)
4. Lee Evans - 843 yards(1st Round #13 Pick)
5. Torrey Smith - 841 yards (2nd Round Pick)
6. Santonio Holmes - 824 yards(1st Round #25 Pick)
7. Roy Williams - 817 yards (1st Round #7 Pick)
8. Josh Gordon - 805 yards (2nd Round Pick)
9. DeAndre Hopkins - 802 yards (1st Round #27 Pick)
That's 20 total players. Of the 20, 10 are first rounders(50%). But only 2 of the 5 1000+ yard WRs are first rounders(40%). Of the 20, 5 are top 10 picks(25%). Of the 20, 6 are second round picks(30%). Of the 20, 4 were drafted in the third round or later(20%).
800 yards is not a #1 WR benchmark. It's more of a #2 WR benchmark. So I'd say the expectation that a rookie will come in and be our immediate #1 WR is probably unrealistic. Being a solid #2 WR is a more realistic expectation from a highly drafted rookie.
In fact, over the last 50 years, only 3 rookie WRs managed to put up 1000+ yards AND 10+ TDs. They were Randy Moss of the Vikings, Bullet Bob Hayes of the Cowboys, and John Jefferson of the San Diego Chargers.
Yes, I know there's a big name missing from the list. Calvin Johnson put up 756 yards as a rookie WR in Detroit.
I'd also say that it's fair to conclude that there will be options outside of the top 15 picks and even the first round this year that can contribute similarly to the top drafted WRs as rookies.