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Sunday January 15, 2023
AFC Wild Card Prediction: Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals Stage First-Ever Postseason Matchup
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the AFC Wild Card game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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AFC Wild Card: Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals Stage First-Ever Postseason Matchup
For the second time in as many weeks and the third time this season, the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals will meet in a high-stakes game. But given that this is the first time these AFC North rivals have met in the playoffs, it will be unlike any game before it.Baltimore and Cincinnati split their two regular-season games, with the home team winning each matchup. The Ravens narrowly won 19-17 in Week 5 before the Bengals ran away with a 27-16 win last week.
Of course, one key difference in those games besides the venue was the availability of Lamar Jackson. The 2019 MVP led the Ravens on a last-minute, game-winning drive in the first matchup but has not practiced since suffering a PCL injury on Dec. 4. He is out again on Sunday — Jackson shared on social media on Thursday that his knee "remains unstable" — and backup Tyler Huntley (shoulder) is questionable to play as well.
Baltimore has looked like a completely different team without Jackson, who is set to hit free agency this offseason. Prior to his injury, the Ravens were averaging 25.0 points per game, an average that's been cut exactly in half since.
With rookie Anthony Brown potentially getting the start for the second straight game, it will be an uphill battle for Baltimore to keep up with Cincinnati's high-flying offense. The line opened up at 6.5 points when Jackson's availability was more in question but is now approaching double digits.
So can the Ravens pull off an upset with hopes of Jackson returning for a potential Divisional Round game against the Chiefs or Bills? Or will the Bengals cruise to a second straight win at home against their divisional rivals?
AFC Wild Card: Baltimore (10-7) at Cincinnati (12-4)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 15 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Bengals -9.5
Tickets: As low as $260 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Can Joe Burrow finally solve the Ravens' defense?
Across 17 starts this season, Burrow only has five with negative EPA per dropback. Two of them were against the Ravens. Despite Baltimore blitzing (7.3 percent) and bringing pressure (12.2 percent) less often than their season average, coordinator Mike Macdonald's unit still confounded the Bengals' quarterback.
Some of that could have to do with Cincinnati using a more vanilla game plan against an opponent they were likely to face again the next week. But still, Burrow was not effective on the outside, where he usually thrives, and completed just four of 14 passes beyond 10 yards in the Week 18 game.
The Ravens have found success against the Bengals, among other opponents, by brilliantly disguising their coverage and trusting their cornerbacks to make the play. That's worked twice so far, although it could be hard to fool Burrow a third time, especially in such quick succession.
One area to keep an eye on is the right side of the Bengals' offensive line, where they will be missing guard Alex Cappa, who went down with an ankle injury last week. They just lost right tackle La'el Collins (knee) in Week 16, so they could be particularly vulnerable on that side. Burrow gets the ball out quicker than any quarterback other than Tom Brady (2.55 sec. avg. time to throw), but quick, smart decision-making against this tricky defense will be even more crucial this week.
2. Will the Ravens still be a running threat without Lamar Jackson?
Without Jackson, the Baltimore offense can't run the same. The Ravens obviously miss his dynamic ability, but using Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown in place of him means that opponents don't have to respect the pass as much. Despite rushing more with Jackson out, the Ravens are picking up fewer yards per game (162.7 vs. 155.0) on the ground.
The difference was clear in the two Baltimore-Cincinnati games this season. In the first, the Ravens racked up 5.5 yards per carry, and 13 of their 22 first downs came via the rush. In the second, they only picked up 4.1 yards per carry, with eight of their 20 first downs coming on the ground.
It's worth noting that star nose tackle D.J. Reader did not play in the first Ravens game, and he's a big difference-maker in this contest. That will be the key matchup to watch as he goes up against Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum, who ranks first among centers in pass block win rate (77 percent), and guard Ben Powers (second among guards, 79 percent).
If Huntley is able to go, that will open a new dimension for the Ravens since Brown has three rushes for minus-5 yards in his two games. But regardless, the Ravens need to control the clock to shorten the game as much as possible.
3. Can Baltimore avoid back-breaking mistakes?
Yes, the Ravens cut the final deficit to 11 points last week, but they were never really in the game thanks to four turnovers. Two early interceptions from Brown led to two quick touchdowns as Baltimore spotted Cincinnati a 17-0 lead less than a minute into the second quarter.
Cincinnati's defense has been solid if unspectacular this season, tying for 11th with 24 takeaways. But 11 of them have come in the last four games, including another four-spot against the Buccaneers in Week 15. Safety Jessie Bates III, in particular, has stood out with three forced turnovers in that stretch, including two last week.
Baltimore isn't going to win a shootout. It doesn't have the weapons to keep up with Ja'Marr Chase and Co., and the quarterback position has been a black hole in Jackson's absence. But the Ravens can win a rock fight. It's easy to see how the defense can slow Burrow down, but if they give away many — perhaps any — possessions, that task may become too difficult for this struggling offense that hasn't surpassed 17 points without their MVP.
Final Analysis
There's a football cliché that says it's hard to beat a team three times in a season. Well, it's also hard to stop an elite quarterback three times in a season. Joe Burrow is a good enough quarterback that he should be able to solve Baltimore's defense this time around. Even average play will be enough to reach 20 points, which should be more than enough to win at home.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 13
