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Michael Silver: Why Rams ‘take risks’ to win now
By acquiring big-name stars, Rams plot an unconventional course to create a competitive edge
www.ballysports.com
Michael Silver: Why Rams ‘take risks’ to win now
Michael Silver, Special to Bally Sports
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) celebrates with quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the Arizona Cardinals in Inglewood, Calif., Monday, Jan. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
LOS ANGELES — Midway through an iced coffee while sitting at an outdoor cafe on the border of Brentwood and Santa Monica last Friday afternoon, Los Angeles Rams chief operating officer Kevin Demoff wanted to make two things clear.
First, despite the common perception that the Rams are all in for the 2021 season, losing to Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an upcoming divisional-round playoff game would not constitute a calamitous crash from which the franchise would struggle to recover.
And secondly, though L.A.’s star-heavy, go-for-broke approach had worked out well so far, Demoff said, “We don’t think we’re smarter than everybody else. We don’t think we’re better than anybody else. We’re just willing to think in a different way. And by the way, I don’t know if our model is right or replicable or sustainable. But those are all questions for a different day.”
Two days later, the Rams would pull out a dramatic, 30-27 road victory over the Bucs fueled by many of the high-profile players they’ve landed over the past three seasons. The team that hosts the rival San Francisco 49ers in Sunday’s NFC championship game at SoFi Stadium — with a chance to return to SoFi two weeks later for Super Bowl LVI — has benefitted greatly from the presence of quarterback Matthew Stafford, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, edge rusher Von Miller and wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr., validating, at least in the short term, the aggressive acquisition strategy that brought them to Los Angeles.
Each time the Rams deal draft picks or strain to squeeze another big contract under the salary cap, there’s an accompanying outcry, with skeptics insisting that impending organizational comeuppance is a certainty. This is especially true each spring, when millions of viewers tune in for the league’s annual Player Selection Meeting: The Rams, thanks largely to Demoff’s efforts, may have the coolest draft pad in America, but L.A. hasn’t had a first-round pick since it selected quarterback Jared Goff first overall in 2016. That trend is likely to continue, as the Rams dealt away their 2022 and 2023 first-round selections a year ago in the blockbuster trade that sent Goff to the Detroit Lions for Stafford.
The Stafford trade, which came on the heels of last January’s divisional-round defeat to the Green Bay Packers, underscored the franchise’s commitment to the here and now. The aligned approach employed by Demoff, general manager Les Snead and coach Sean McVay — made possible by owner Stan Kroenke’s blessing and checkbook — is derided by critics as desperate, reckless and shortsighted. In Demoff’s eyes, it’s merely strategic.
“I think the great thing about our team is we’re opportunistic,” Demoff said. “It’s not like we go on Craigslist and say, ‘We have two first-round picks for sale, and what will you give us for them?’ Jalen Ramsey is an elite All-Pro player at one of the most important positions in football, who (was almost) 25. For some reason, he was available. Matthew Stafford, an elite, All-Pro-caliber quarterback, was available. I think you have to take each case individually and decide whether they make you better, and what are the alternatives that you’d get with the capital that you’re giving up.”
For example: The Rams sent two first-round picks and a fourth-round selection to the Jacksonville Jaguars for Ramsey in October of 2019. The Jags have since used those first-round picks on edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson in 2020 and running back Travis Etienne last April, with very little (so far) to show for it.
This is not to say that the Rams haven’t made their share of mistakes, too. Signing running back Todd Gurley to a top-of-the-market contract extension in July of 2018, only to have his career short-circuited due to lingering knee issues, was one of those ill-advised moves, and Goff’s 2019 contract extension when he was coming off a Super Bowl LIII appearance was, by definition (as evidenced by last year’s trade), a decision they came to regret.
Being willing to risk embarrassment — and to cut their losses, when necessary — is a key tenet behind the Rams’ philosophy. Another is to view each opportunity to add a key veteran as a supplemental transaction, rather than as a cure-all. When the price seems right, they don’t hesitate: L.A. has made a multitude of trades in the five years since McVay’s hiring as the youngest head coach in modern NFL history, acquiring players such as wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Sammy Watkins, cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters, edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr., guard Austin Corbett and running back Sony Michel. The Rams have also rejected plenty of proposed deals that were deemed overly steep in price.
L.A. owns the league’s third-best record during that span, so McVay, Snead and Demoff are obviously doing something right.
“This league is designed for you to go .500,” Demoff said. “The draft is; the schedule is; the salary cap is. So you have to try to find your advantage any way possible. But the best way to do it is to do something different that other people aren’t doing and then hope that that actually works.
“There is no proven formula that works, proven over time. The sooner you admit that, the better. How arrogant do you have to be to (say), ‘You know what — we’re gonna do it like everybody else, but we’re better at it’? That’s arrogance. You have to think about your world differently. You have to take risks. And you have to be willing to live with the downside.”
For the Rams’ approach to flourish, several things have to happen. First and foremost, the players they acquire have to like the organizational environment enough to stay with the team once their contracts expire. Snead and his fellow talent evaluators also have to be adept at filling out the roster with young players on rookie contracts who can contribute right away, in order to make a top-heavy salary cap work. The Rams had the league’s youngest roster coming out of the 2021 draft and entered the season with the seventh-youngest 53-man squad, with an average age of 25.76 years.
Though lampooned for their lack of first-rounders, the Rams have made a concerted effort to stockpile late-round selections, via their shrewd use of the league’s compensatory-pick formula to their advantage, and their propensity for trading down. And clearly, McVay and his assistants can coach up their less-decorated players, as evidenced by the postseason contributions of safety Nick Scott (a seventh-round draft pick in 2017), linebackers Troy Reeder (undrafted in 2019) and Travin Howard (a 2018 seventh-round selection), nose tackle Greg Gaines (a 2019 fourth-rounder) and guard David Edwards (a 2019 fifth-rounder), among others.
That the Rams’ boldness quotient increased after the franchise’s 2016 move from St. Louis to Los Angeles is no coincidence. A fan base smitten with star power tends to applaud live-for-the-moment moves such as the Nov. 1 trade for Miller, a perennial Denver Broncos All-Pro and Super Bowl 50 MVP whose contract expires after this season, and the free-agent signing of Beckham after his release by the Cleveland Browns less than two weeks later.
It should also be noted that the Rams play in football’s toughest division — against franchises with similarly aggressive tendencies. After the 49ers unsuccessfully tried to trade for Stafford, they made a blockbuster deal to move up nine spots in the draft and select former North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance as the third overall selection. Kyle Shanahan, during training camp, told me that trade had been influenced by the Rams’ recent history, as well as that of the Seattle Seahawks (who sent two first-round picks and more to the New York Jets for All-Pro safety Jamal Adams in July of 2020). The Arizona Cardinals, who lost to the Rams in a first-round playoff game, have also taken big swings, such as using top-10 picks on quarterbacks in consecutive drafts.
Said Demoff, laughing: “The NFC West isn’t wired for, ‘Hey, we’re gonna draft and develop.’”
With the Rams now a victory away from securing their second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons, Demoff isn’t second-guessing the model that got them this far. If nothing else, in a league where the risk-averse traditionalists are often celebrated, he and his fellow decision-makers have plotted an unconventional course that they believe has created a competitive edge.
“There are so many different ways to do it,” Demoff said. “Ultimately, you have to do what you think is best for your franchise. The most important thing is, have a formula that is not someone else’s formula. Because the likelihood is, if you’re executing the same plan, you’re not going to be that much better at it than they are.”
Where do the Rams rate in the wake of what was perhaps the most thrilling divisional-round playoff weekend in NFL history? It’s a great question — one we’ve answered via this ordered listing of the four teams still in play for a Lombardi Trophy, with an accompanying quartet of additional queries for your entertainment.
Sep 19, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey (5) celebrates his interception with Rams defensive back Darious Williams (11) in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Four questions
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-5, Last week: 3): Who had a more punishing 13 seconds — Conor McGregor against Jose Aldo, or Patrick Mahomes against the Bills defense on Sunday night?2. San Francisco 49ers (12-7, LW: 6): Has Kyle Shanahan’s “No. 1 goal” been upgraded after Saturday’s wild win at Lambeau Field?
3. Los Angeles Rams (14-5, LW: 7): After learning that Matthew Stafford has stolen his patented “steal somebody’s soul” line, will 49ers tight end George Kittle be extra motivated to “flat back” the Rams on Sunday?
4. Cincinnati Bengals (12-7, LW: 8): Since Joe Burrow no longer wants the Bengals to be depicted as underdogs, can you all kindly oblige him by seeing “American Underdog” in theaters and reaffirming Kurt Warner’s stronghold on that title?
