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I say likely because while I hope to get another mock up on the day before the Draft, I can't make any guarantees. Regardless, this is likely my second-to-last mock. As such, I will not trade down from #31 in this mock (because I will in my last one).
Trade
LA Rams trade Round 3 Pick #35
New York Giants trade Round 4 Pick #6 and Round 5 Pick #33
Giants move up a few slots to land their target on Day 2.
NFL Draft
Round 1 Pick #31 - Dalton Risner T/G/C Kansas State
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mReLnXRYv3Y
Summary: While I've bristled a bit in the past at drafting an OL here, Risner is the exception because I believe he's a Pro Bowler at ANY position on the OL, including LT. Risner is a highly intelligent OL with off the charts core strength, vice grips for hands, and the length and athleticism to play Left Tackle. It's hard to find weaknesses in his game. He has a couple small technical flaws to correct, including a false step on his kick-slide that limits his range at this point in time, but he's a NFL-ready prospect who can play at a high level as a rookie. I would not be surprised if he won the RG job and pushed Blythe inside to Center to compete with Allen. My comparison for him is David Bakhtiari.
Round 3 Pick #31 - David Long CB Michigan
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THsOp5mR-x0
Summary: While he's on the small side at 5'11" 196, Long blew up at the Combine showing speed, explosiveness, and elite agility. At Michigan, Long barely gave up anything during his career. He's a naturally sticky cover CB who smothers routes from press coverage. However, Michigan had him almost entirely play press coverage during his time there, so there's not a lot of scheme diversity here. Long is very scrappy and physical, but he needs to dial back some of the grabbiness, as the NFL is less forgiving of that than college. All in all, he's a kid who will drive WRs absolutely crazy as a press CB and has the ability to play in the slot or on the boundary. My comparison for him is Desmond Trufant.
Round 4 Pick #6 - Christian Miller OLB Alabama
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Oj9qcVf5xM
Summer: Christian Miller is an intriguing player because injuries have largely kept him off the field, but when on it, he has shown a very versatile game with a deep toolset. As a pass rusher, Miller has length, bend, and a variety of moves. He doesn't possess the elite get-off that game changers do, but his burst out of the two-point stance is good enough for him to threaten the edge (he's more explosive standing up). His pass rushing ability could take the next step if he gets stronger to develop a better speed-to-power game and better learns how to string multiple moves together. Outside of pass rushing, he has the length to set a strong edge, especially as he gets stronger, and looks fluid and comfortable in coverage. Miller actually has shown the ability to play both ILB and OLB. My comparison for him is Shaun Phillips.
Round 4 Pick #31 - Jaquan Johnson S Miami
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k29vRJz4hMI
Summary: Don't tell Jaquan Johnson that he's small. At 5'10" 191, he is definitely undersized, but that doesn't stop him from being one of the most physical players on the field. Johnson is a versatile safety who can play in deep zone, the box, or over the slot. He's a reliable tackler who will dish out some big hits and a smart player in coverage. He's not a big playmaker in coverage, but he doesn't make many mistakes. Johnson was also a defensive leader and in charge of getting the secondary lined up at Miami. Yes, he's small, but he's also a smart, reliable safety who should contribute on special teams. My comparison for him is Jahleel Addae.
Round 5 Pick #31 - Cortez Broughton DE/DT Cincinnati
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY_kzrNN3aU
Analysis: I really hope the Rams draft Cortez Broughton. I could see him playing anywhere on our DL, including DT, despite only being 6'2" 296. Broughton is explosive off the ball with the ability to get skinny through gaps, which makes him disruptive. However, he also has an underrated anchor and uses his natural leverage well. He holds up against the run, even double teams, much better than you'd expect. He's a guy who showed the ability to get wins with speed, quickness, or power. Broughton needs to develop counter moves when his initial rush plan is thwarted, but his potential is sky high. My comparison for him is Jurrell Casey. Yes, I think this kid can be special.
Round 5 Pick #33 - Armon Watts DE/DT Arkansas
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUcTDr83WTA
Summary: Armon Watts is an intriguing developmental day three pick for me. He broke out this year as a senior and really had a strong year. However, he's still quite raw. It's the flashes of ability that really caught my eye and make me think he's worth developing as a 5-Tech for our defense. Watts flashes the length, power, and anchor to dominate one-on-one matchups in the running game. As a pass rusher, he flashes a nasty punch with the hand usage and power to overwhelm opponents and enough speed and quickness to take advantage if not given enough respect. Nevertheless, the tools are there, but the consistency and instincts aren't at this point in time. My comparison for Watts is Lawrence Guy.
Round 6 Pick #31 - Stanley Morgan Jr. WR Nebraska
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3PDddvbWvU
Summary: Stanley Morgan Jr. seems tailor made for Sean McVay's offense. While Morgan Jr. isn't a burner, he has enough speed to get over the top if a team doesn't respect it. Where Morgan Jr. shines is in his attention to detail, route running, and blocking. He does all of the little things well. He's a smart, polished player who is going to bring it every snap. While he doesn't possess explosive separation capabilities, he's a savvy route runner who will fit well in a timing-based offense that lets him attack the intermediate range. Basically, Morgan Jr. is a poorer man's version of Robert Woods.
Round 7 Pick #37 - Elijah Holyfield HB Georgia
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI1uJO7u9kY
Analysis: I've really struggled with Holyfield. Before his disastrous Combine, I saw him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. However, all of the analytics say to steer clear of him. Regardless, I am the type to trust my gut. My gut says that Holyfield is a really good football player. At 5'10" 215, he's a thickly built, violent runner with a nasty stiff arm. Don't let his size fool you, though. Holyfield has very light and quick feet, which make him a much shiftier runner than he should be. His instincts (vision/patience) and technical skill are outstanding. The big question marks are in the passing game. He has all the tools to be a great pass protector, but he's still learning. Nevertheless, he barely was used as a pass-catcher, so it's uncertain if he has any ability there. My comparison for him is Alfred Morris.
Priority Undrafted Free Agents
James Williams HB Washington State - James Williams was a highly effective scatback in Mike Leach's offense. He's shifty in space with a great pair of mitts, but he has major question marks as a runner and hasn't shown enough in pass protection.
Khalil Hodge ILB Buffalo - Hodge's instincts and play recognition skills are the best I've seen in this draft. He's a heady player with off-the-charts intangibles. However, he's a terrible athlete with major coverage limitations.
Easton Stick QB North Dakota State - I love Stick's intangibles, athleticism, and mental processing ability. He's very elusive in the pocket with a good feel for pressure. Nevertheless, he has a very average arm and is short for a NFL QB at 6'1".
Tommy Sweeney TE Boston College - Sweeney is a quality inline blocker at TE with a reliable pair of mitts. He's also a heady player who knows how to find soft spots in zone coverage. Nonetheless, Sweeney is an underwhelming athlete who will struggle to separate against M2M coverage in the NFL.
Derrick Baity CB Kentucky - Baity is an intriguing press CB project. He flashes a patient approach in press coverage with good quickness for his size and a lot of height. Problem with him is that he lacks great speed, has short arms for his size, and has inconsistent ball-skills on tape.
Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Todd Gurley
XWR: Brandin Cooks
ZWR: Robert Woods
SLWR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joe Noteboom
C: Brian Allen or Austin Blythe
RG: Dalton Risner
RT: Rob Havenstein
5T: John Franklin-Myers
NT: Michael Brockers
3T: Aaron Donald
WOLB: Dante Fowler Jr.
Mo LB: Cory Littleton
Mike LB: Micah Kiser
SOLB: Samson Ebukam
RCB: Aqib Talib
LCB: Marcus Peters
SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
FS: Eric Weddle
SS: John Johnson
K: Greg Zuerlein
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
Trade
LA Rams trade Round 3 Pick #35
New York Giants trade Round 4 Pick #6 and Round 5 Pick #33
Giants move up a few slots to land their target on Day 2.
NFL Draft
Round 1 Pick #31 - Dalton Risner T/G/C Kansas State
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mReLnXRYv3Y
Summary: While I've bristled a bit in the past at drafting an OL here, Risner is the exception because I believe he's a Pro Bowler at ANY position on the OL, including LT. Risner is a highly intelligent OL with off the charts core strength, vice grips for hands, and the length and athleticism to play Left Tackle. It's hard to find weaknesses in his game. He has a couple small technical flaws to correct, including a false step on his kick-slide that limits his range at this point in time, but he's a NFL-ready prospect who can play at a high level as a rookie. I would not be surprised if he won the RG job and pushed Blythe inside to Center to compete with Allen. My comparison for him is David Bakhtiari.
Round 3 Pick #31 - David Long CB Michigan
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THsOp5mR-x0
Summary: While he's on the small side at 5'11" 196, Long blew up at the Combine showing speed, explosiveness, and elite agility. At Michigan, Long barely gave up anything during his career. He's a naturally sticky cover CB who smothers routes from press coverage. However, Michigan had him almost entirely play press coverage during his time there, so there's not a lot of scheme diversity here. Long is very scrappy and physical, but he needs to dial back some of the grabbiness, as the NFL is less forgiving of that than college. All in all, he's a kid who will drive WRs absolutely crazy as a press CB and has the ability to play in the slot or on the boundary. My comparison for him is Desmond Trufant.
Round 4 Pick #6 - Christian Miller OLB Alabama
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Oj9qcVf5xM
Summer: Christian Miller is an intriguing player because injuries have largely kept him off the field, but when on it, he has shown a very versatile game with a deep toolset. As a pass rusher, Miller has length, bend, and a variety of moves. He doesn't possess the elite get-off that game changers do, but his burst out of the two-point stance is good enough for him to threaten the edge (he's more explosive standing up). His pass rushing ability could take the next step if he gets stronger to develop a better speed-to-power game and better learns how to string multiple moves together. Outside of pass rushing, he has the length to set a strong edge, especially as he gets stronger, and looks fluid and comfortable in coverage. Miller actually has shown the ability to play both ILB and OLB. My comparison for him is Shaun Phillips.
Round 4 Pick #31 - Jaquan Johnson S Miami
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k29vRJz4hMI
Summary: Don't tell Jaquan Johnson that he's small. At 5'10" 191, he is definitely undersized, but that doesn't stop him from being one of the most physical players on the field. Johnson is a versatile safety who can play in deep zone, the box, or over the slot. He's a reliable tackler who will dish out some big hits and a smart player in coverage. He's not a big playmaker in coverage, but he doesn't make many mistakes. Johnson was also a defensive leader and in charge of getting the secondary lined up at Miami. Yes, he's small, but he's also a smart, reliable safety who should contribute on special teams. My comparison for him is Jahleel Addae.
Round 5 Pick #31 - Cortez Broughton DE/DT Cincinnati
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY_kzrNN3aU
Analysis: I really hope the Rams draft Cortez Broughton. I could see him playing anywhere on our DL, including DT, despite only being 6'2" 296. Broughton is explosive off the ball with the ability to get skinny through gaps, which makes him disruptive. However, he also has an underrated anchor and uses his natural leverage well. He holds up against the run, even double teams, much better than you'd expect. He's a guy who showed the ability to get wins with speed, quickness, or power. Broughton needs to develop counter moves when his initial rush plan is thwarted, but his potential is sky high. My comparison for him is Jurrell Casey. Yes, I think this kid can be special.
Round 5 Pick #33 - Armon Watts DE/DT Arkansas
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUcTDr83WTA
Summary: Armon Watts is an intriguing developmental day three pick for me. He broke out this year as a senior and really had a strong year. However, he's still quite raw. It's the flashes of ability that really caught my eye and make me think he's worth developing as a 5-Tech for our defense. Watts flashes the length, power, and anchor to dominate one-on-one matchups in the running game. As a pass rusher, he flashes a nasty punch with the hand usage and power to overwhelm opponents and enough speed and quickness to take advantage if not given enough respect. Nevertheless, the tools are there, but the consistency and instincts aren't at this point in time. My comparison for Watts is Lawrence Guy.
Round 6 Pick #31 - Stanley Morgan Jr. WR Nebraska
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3PDddvbWvU
Summary: Stanley Morgan Jr. seems tailor made for Sean McVay's offense. While Morgan Jr. isn't a burner, he has enough speed to get over the top if a team doesn't respect it. Where Morgan Jr. shines is in his attention to detail, route running, and blocking. He does all of the little things well. He's a smart, polished player who is going to bring it every snap. While he doesn't possess explosive separation capabilities, he's a savvy route runner who will fit well in a timing-based offense that lets him attack the intermediate range. Basically, Morgan Jr. is a poorer man's version of Robert Woods.
Round 7 Pick #37 - Elijah Holyfield HB Georgia
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI1uJO7u9kY
Analysis: I've really struggled with Holyfield. Before his disastrous Combine, I saw him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. However, all of the analytics say to steer clear of him. Regardless, I am the type to trust my gut. My gut says that Holyfield is a really good football player. At 5'10" 215, he's a thickly built, violent runner with a nasty stiff arm. Don't let his size fool you, though. Holyfield has very light and quick feet, which make him a much shiftier runner than he should be. His instincts (vision/patience) and technical skill are outstanding. The big question marks are in the passing game. He has all the tools to be a great pass protector, but he's still learning. Nevertheless, he barely was used as a pass-catcher, so it's uncertain if he has any ability there. My comparison for him is Alfred Morris.
Priority Undrafted Free Agents
James Williams HB Washington State - James Williams was a highly effective scatback in Mike Leach's offense. He's shifty in space with a great pair of mitts, but he has major question marks as a runner and hasn't shown enough in pass protection.
Khalil Hodge ILB Buffalo - Hodge's instincts and play recognition skills are the best I've seen in this draft. He's a heady player with off-the-charts intangibles. However, he's a terrible athlete with major coverage limitations.
Easton Stick QB North Dakota State - I love Stick's intangibles, athleticism, and mental processing ability. He's very elusive in the pocket with a good feel for pressure. Nevertheless, he has a very average arm and is short for a NFL QB at 6'1".
Tommy Sweeney TE Boston College - Sweeney is a quality inline blocker at TE with a reliable pair of mitts. He's also a heady player who knows how to find soft spots in zone coverage. Nonetheless, Sweeney is an underwhelming athlete who will struggle to separate against M2M coverage in the NFL.
Derrick Baity CB Kentucky - Baity is an intriguing press CB project. He flashes a patient approach in press coverage with good quickness for his size and a lot of height. Problem with him is that he lacks great speed, has short arms for his size, and has inconsistent ball-skills on tape.
Projected Starters
QB: Jared Goff
HB: Todd Gurley
XWR: Brandin Cooks
ZWR: Robert Woods
SLWR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Tyler Higbee or Gerald Everett
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joe Noteboom
C: Brian Allen or Austin Blythe
RG: Dalton Risner
RT: Rob Havenstein
5T: John Franklin-Myers
NT: Michael Brockers
3T: Aaron Donald
WOLB: Dante Fowler Jr.
Mo LB: Cory Littleton
Mike LB: Micah Kiser
SOLB: Samson Ebukam
RCB: Aqib Talib
LCB: Marcus Peters
SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
FS: Eric Weddle
SS: John Johnson
K: Greg Zuerlein
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide