Is Matthew Stafford a HOFer in Waiting?

[Loyal]

Peter Schrager mentioned a standard for present day HOFer QB as being 60,000 plus yards and 400 TD's in a career. Looking at the top 11 passers in NFL history, makes that standard very accurate. Stafford is 3,953 yards away and 43 points away from 400. I think there would have to be a career ending injury for him to fall short. He has also won a Super Bowl, after which MANY talking heads said he was HOF worthy. I think that besides just the transcendent numbers, Matthew Freakin Stafford has The Story, like Kurt Warner had The Story. Kurt's story was even more improbable than Stafford's, but Matthew's Story is still pretty incredible:
1. Number 1 Draft Pick for the Detroit Lions. Four winning seasons out of eleven and never won a SINGLE playoff game.
2. Stat Padford was his diminishing sobriquet (look it up, @Allen2McVay !). His team seemed to be always behind, before trying to come back. The Lions being who they were, lost more than they won.
3. Many mocked the Rams for getting fleeced by Detroit in the trade.
4. The Rams HAD to win for them not to be the laughingstock of the NFL and they had to do it with a guy who had never won anything when it really mattered.
5. After winning the NFC West in 2021, the Rams had to beat the Cardinals, the Buccaneers, the Niners and the Bengals to win the Super Bowl. Stafford was clutch as H double hockey sticks. He answered the lingering question as to who he really was and is.

I've been trying to come up with a formula. I think the stats are important (probably the most important). Winning Super Bowls are also critical for most candidates. The Story is big as well and if a candidate doesn't have one, he might not make it. Misc stuff as well, like MVP of the NFL.
Stats = 60%
Super Bowl Wins = 15% each
The Story = 15%
Misc. = 10%

What do you think of this?

 

[tempests]

His problem is the era he played in. How many QBs had their prime the last 15 years who either are or will be in the Hall?

Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees...then the next tier with Roethlisberger, Rivers, Ryan, maybe Eli Manning. All those guys have more yards and TDs than Stafford.

Losing record as a starter, only two Pro Bowls and no All Pros.....He needs an MVP season or another Super Bowl run for him to be a serious candidate.

 

[Corbin]

I agree 100% with everything but think you left out something important.

Stafford is very underrated as a comeback and a game winning drive QB.

35 Fourth Quarter Comebacks,44 Game-Winning Drives

Needs 12 comebacks to be 1st all time, currently is 6th.

Needs 15 to become all time currently is 7th.

To be these two stats are the most important. Are you clutch when your team needs you?

Statistically, Staffords up there with the greats.

 

[Lunchbox]

Love Stafford. Love his grit and determination. Love his leadership qualities. He's as good as many (I know, Van Brocklin, Waterfield, Gabriel, Warner for the Rams alone) QB's who've had more team success, but had the misfortune of spending most of his career piloting one of the worst franchises in the history of the NFL.

His is a unique situation in that you have to consider his personal stats almost more than the success f the team he played for before joining the Rams.

I liken his career a lot to Steven Jackson's. An absolute beast playing for one of the worst franchises in the league during his career and getting downgraded for it.

AFAIC they both belong in the HOF.

 

[Kupped]

Last year did a lot of heavy lifting on this front, imo.
If he gets back to the NFC title game or Super Bowl.. and has a 4500 yard 30 TD season? I think he’d be getting very close.

 

[Ramhusker]

Peter Schrager mentioned a standard for present day HOFer QB as being 60,000 plus yards and 400 TD's in a career. Looking at the top 11 passers in NFL history, makes that standard very accurate. Stafford is 3,953 yards away and 43 points away from 400. I think there would have to be a career ending injury for him to fall short. He has also won a Super Bowl, after which MANY talking heads said he was HOF worthy. I think that besides just the transcendent numbers, Matthew Freakin Stafford has The Story, like Kurt Warner had The Story. Kurt's story was even more improbable than Stafford's, but Matthew's Story is still pretty incredible:
1. Number 1 Draft Pick for the Detroit Lions. Four winning seasons out of eleven and never won a SINGLE playoff game.
2. Stat Padford was his diminishing sobriquet (look it up, @Allen2McVay !). His team seemed to be always behind, before trying to come back. The Lions being who they were, lost more than they won.
3. Many mocked the Rams for getting fleeced by Detroit in the trade.
4. The Rams HAD to win for them not to be the laughingstock of the NFL and they had to do it with a guy who had never won anything when it really mattered.
5. After winning the NFC West in 2021, the Rams had to beat the Cardinals, the Buccaneers, the Niners and the Bengals to win the Super Bowl. Stafford was clutch as H double hockey sticks. He answered the lingering question as to who he really was and is.

I've been trying to come up with a formula. I think the stats are important (probably the most important). Winning Super Bowls are also critical for most candidates. The Story is big as well and if a candidate doesn't have one, he might not make it. Misc stuff as well, like MVP of the NFL.
Stats = 60%
Super Bowl Wins = 15% each
The Story = 15%
Misc. = 10%

What do you think of this?

Still think Gabriel should get in. Stafford definitely will get in.

 

[Ellard80]

he is close for sure... might be just a tad short.

But two more good seasons and i think he is a lock

 

[gogoat1]

He just played for the Lions too long to be a lock.
Just think if McVay would have traded Goff for him year 1 !
For sure HOFer.

 

[thirteen28]

More or less agree with most of the posters above. If he gets another ring though, then he has to go in.

 

[Ramlife]

He is one of the greatest throwers of the football I’ve witnessed. Hes a hall of famer no doubt. To boot he is tough as nails and a true leader. Bad ass mfer quarterbacking our Rams. Were fortunate to have him, enjoy.

 

[So Ram]

He is one of the greatest throwers of the football I’ve witnessed. Hes a hall of famer no doubt. To boot he is tough as nails and a true leader. Bad ass mfer quarterbacking our Rams. Were fortunate to have him, enjoy.

Wait till this season is over if anyone has any doubts.Which I don’t,especially once he became a Ram & won a Super Bowl. That check all the boxes.

 

[Dodgersrf]

If you have to think about it, then the answer is No.

Forget the numbers. Stafford makes throws that are jaw dropping. Even for a pro.

It’s an obvious yes, for me.

 

[Loyal]

His problem is the era he played in. How many QBs had their prime the last 15 years who either are or will be in the Hall?

Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees...then the next tier with Roethlisberger, Rivers, Ryan, maybe Eli Manning. All those guys have more yards and TDs than Stafford.

Losing record as a starter, only two Pro Bowls and no All Pros.....He needs an MVP season or another Super Bowl run for him to be a serious candidate.

Well Brady, Brees, Roethlisburger, and Ryan are not eligible yet to be considered. Of that 4, only Ryan will have a tough time getting in, seeing he never won a Super Bowl.

Payton Manning is already a HOFer. His brother Eli has a Story and two Super Bowl rings, but then so did HOFer-less Jim Plunket (two rings, sans The Story).

Rodgers and Stafford are the only two in the top 11 QB's in history who are still playing and both most likely won't be competing with most of the others for a spot in the HOF because those retirees will already be inducted.

Stafford will go from #11 on the list to #9 or #10 with just two more seasons like 2023 (passing Eli and maybe Dan Marino, yards wise). I think he plays another year beyond that, giving him 18 years in the NFL (same as Big Ben had). With three seasons like 2023, he leapfrogs Big Ben, Ryan, Rivers, Marino and likely Rodgers (played/eligible for 19 seasons and could get injured and retired at any time). Stats passing yards-wise, only Favre, P. Manning, Brees and Brady would have more.

As for the lack of MVP's, losing record as a starter, he is right now 98-107-1. In two years, he likely has a winning record as a pro. He probably won't win an MVP no matter how well he plays, because he's an unselfish team player. He's happy to roll with a great rushing attack and do play action. He just wants to win.

His futility in Detroit is part of The Story: a great QB smothered by a horrid team/organization, only to shine in the first year with a decent team and win a Super Bowl. I can't think of another QB in my lifetime who has done that, which covers the Super Bowl era. It's the story, my man. Many said Kurt had no shot at the HOF because of the donut hole in his career and passed for some 20 some thousand yards less than Stafford right now and I believe he was a 1st ballot HOFer. It comes down to the Story, I believe. I forgot who said that if a player is pivotal in telling the story of the NFL, then that player belongs in the Hall of Fame. Stafford is that right now.

 

[Loyal]

More or less agree with most of the posters above. If he gets another ring though, then he has to go in.

Say wut? ~ Jim Plunket

 

[Loyal]

Love Stafford. Love his grit and determination. Love his leadership qualities. He's as good as many (I know, Van Brocklin, Waterfield, Gabriel, Warner for the Rams alone) QB's who've had more team success, but had the misfortune of spending most of his career piloting one of the worst franchises in the history of the NFL.

His is a unique situation in that you have to consider his personal stats almost more than the success f the team he played for before joining the Rams.

I liken his career a lot to Steven Jackson's. An absolute beast playing for one of the worst franchises in the league during his career and getting downgraded for it.

AFAIC they both belong in the HOF.

HOF Projections in this order! ~ @Memento
1. SJAX
2, Stafford

 

[Merlin]

I think that playoff run and winning the title the way he did put him over the top. He won it the hard way, with no run game, and the stretch of games in the playoffs were epic by him.

But it would be nice to see him put up a huge season or two before he is done. Another title as well. That would cement it but I suspect he's already gonna be in.

 

[Merlin]

By the way if SF had made that trade for Matt Stafford they would have a title. No doubt in my mind and maybe more than one with that roster. If Ratboy had him at QB in Atlanta he'd have another one.

 

[TheTackle]

Yes. That said, he needs to keep playing for some years yet to guarantee his place - which is great for us

 

[OnceARam]

2 more years!

 

[TexasRam]

The production and longevity combined with the clutch play during the Super Bowl run and ultimately a Lombardi, has Stafford in the conversation.

But the lack of Pro Bowls/all-pros and any MVPs is going to be a problem. He’s going to be stacked up vs 8-10 year pro bowl guys that were recognized as the best at their positions for several years.

Think about Torry Holt, 2 All- pros, 7 Pro bowls. Several records and a Lombardi. 10 years of eligibility and cant get in.

Realistically, I think Staffords only chance for the Hall would another Lombardi or a few MVP/All pro seasons.

The Good news is we have a beefed up Oline, and top notch skilled players for Stafford to have an MVP type season. Not to mention boy genius burning the late night candle in his lab.