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(Semi disorganized post, where I go on tangents, hope some grasp the point I'm trying to get across)
I for one never thought he was ELITE, but has always been in that second group of QBs (Flacco, Rivers, etc.).
Many have said and I agree, that he has all of the physical tools to be an incredibly successful QB in the NFL. He has the intelligence and leadership to be successful in the NFL.
But...
that is based on when he has (at least) adequate tools around him. Eli has never been known for being "economical" with his turnovers, but you see him even trying to beat his own career highs with 12 picks already. His OLine is porous, with multiple injuries, and new guys rotating in every week (where have we seen this before?). But even with an iffy OLine, Eli still has better WRs currently then Sam has ever had in his career. And he's thrown 12 picks. This a 2 time world champion who looks very average, arguably below average. How about another 0-5, 2 time world champion Big Ben? Spotty OLine, limited run game, questionable targets. You will also see "Matty Ice" continue to become more average looking without White & a lack of a running game.
Point I'm trying to make is:
Sam has had as bad or WORSE (in most cases) OLine, pass catching options, and running games in his career then Eli, Big Ben, and some other struggling very good/solid/step below elite QBs have this year. Think about the best WRs Sam has ever had : Danny, Clayton, DX, Lloyd- all were injured too frequently to make a huge week in week out impact and in Lloyd's case, he came so late and was the only threat. And the worst OLine he's ever played behind was much worse then what Eli & Ben have.
And finally this year, was when it was all supposed to come together for Sam, the stars would align, make or break some said.
1. "He has the weapons" Referencing TA, Cook, Givens, & Quick. In theory, Sam has the best receiving options in his career. But a combo of drops, mental lapses (these guys are young), lack of creative playcalling, offensive balance, and blocking have affected Sam's ability to make more of what he has been given. Now I'm not letting Sam off free, some times he is in the wrong, but people can't simply gloss over what's holding the O back, and I'd argue if anyone should be blamed for holding back the O Sam would be one of the last guys I'd look towards. Has he really regressed this much from a solid 2012, or have the other 21 been less consistent with their play this year?
2. "This will be Pead's breakout year" Is what many said, including John Clayton. I never bought it. Would it have been a huge lift for the offense for Pead to emerge? Sure. But we'll never know. SJ is missed more than people would like to admit. And although he's currently on the shelf, you can't say the same would be true if he'd stayed. I understand us letting him go, but to say that we would be better off like many indicated is incredibly short sighted or just stubborn. Said it before and I'll say it again: STEVEN JACKSON IS AN ELITE PASS BLOCKING RB, and has been for 2-4 years. Just roll the tape of him vs Willis on Pettis' TD last year. Many wonder why WE DON'T THROW THE BALL DOWNFIELD as much this year. Has anyone thought about how many things go into a successful 40+ yard shot downfield. The OL needs to block for 3 sec+ often, and that includes TE & RB. Go back on coaches film or even the season highlights, and see how many major pass plays the Rams converted last year SJ was blocking in.
3. "The OLine has been upgraded" Jake Long is very good, no doubt. Barksdale (or Saffold) ARE upgrades from Barry Richardson. Wells is healthy. BUT Dahl is continuing his steep decline & Fish is running tryouts at LG during games still. Although he didn't have much power, I think Rob Turner is an overlooked key departure. At this point last year I think our OLine gave Sam more time to consistently step into his throws and go through his progressions. If the pocket wasn't always collapsing into him, you'd see less bat downs which are a product of DL getting their hands up, but also the OL being to close to the QB. You'd also see less checkdowns.
4. "The defense can be a top 10 unit. They led the league in 2012." This is a bigger deal IMO than Sam & the O, even though the O has been less than spectacular. How many takeaways did we have vs our only LEGIT opponents this year (ATL, DAL, SF)? How often did we get off the field on 3rd downs? IMO this is due to scheming, coaching adjustments, young personnel, and possibly some declining personnel. Finn seems to be declining for sure. Remember when people were pissed at Jenks' mistakes as a rookie? We'll Finn's have been worse this year. How about the lack of the 3 & out this year? This is one of the reasons the Rams start many drives inside the 20. And this has been the one area that Sam has seldom had help with closing out games. How many more comebacks would he have completed in his career or would have had the chance of starting? Remember Sam led STL to the lead against DET, SF, & SEA in 2012. They have often been the link that's failed to seal the deal.
Many will label me as a Bradford apologist for making a post like this. But I view it differently: I'm one of those fans who believes that we can't see Sam ever meet his full potential with the team he is currently surrounded by (Oline, skill positions, & D).
What interests and also intrigues me, is Sam has never had the benefit of having the consistency around him that QBs like Eli & Ben have enjoyed. For the better part of their careers they have had the Faneca's, Snee's, Pouncey's, and Diehl's of the world. How about Ward, Randel El, Wallace, Brown, Miller, Burress, Toomer, Smith (for a year), Nicks, Cruz. These guys have been consistently been surrounded from talent from day 1 of their careers! Lets not overlook the value of having a top 10 defense helping you on the other side! Wonder why Peyton Manning only won A super bowl in Indy? Was bounced out of the playoffs early many years? Lost to Brady many a time til 2006? It was defense, not his inability to score. Football is a TEAM game.
Sam has had a similar start to his career as Alex Smith, although I don't like to compare the two physically, purely on situation. A some young talent, with a mix of vets. Constant head coaching changes, not to mention other coaches.
I think Sam can reach the level of the Eli's & Big Ben's of the league, and even crawl into elite IF surrounded by the right team. The difference is, I think we have seen Ben & Eli max out, or nearly max their potential. This year is not necessarily a depletion in ability or skill, its a depletion of talent, execution, coaching, etc. Sam has never been given the tools or they haven't woked, so he never got to the point where Eli & Ben reached.
Anyways I could ramble on forever... forgive me. Just trying to get out all my thoughts while I can
I for one never thought he was ELITE, but has always been in that second group of QBs (Flacco, Rivers, etc.).
Many have said and I agree, that he has all of the physical tools to be an incredibly successful QB in the NFL. He has the intelligence and leadership to be successful in the NFL.
But...
that is based on when he has (at least) adequate tools around him. Eli has never been known for being "economical" with his turnovers, but you see him even trying to beat his own career highs with 12 picks already. His OLine is porous, with multiple injuries, and new guys rotating in every week (where have we seen this before?). But even with an iffy OLine, Eli still has better WRs currently then Sam has ever had in his career. And he's thrown 12 picks. This a 2 time world champion who looks very average, arguably below average. How about another 0-5, 2 time world champion Big Ben? Spotty OLine, limited run game, questionable targets. You will also see "Matty Ice" continue to become more average looking without White & a lack of a running game.
Point I'm trying to make is:
Sam has had as bad or WORSE (in most cases) OLine, pass catching options, and running games in his career then Eli, Big Ben, and some other struggling very good/solid/step below elite QBs have this year. Think about the best WRs Sam has ever had : Danny, Clayton, DX, Lloyd- all were injured too frequently to make a huge week in week out impact and in Lloyd's case, he came so late and was the only threat. And the worst OLine he's ever played behind was much worse then what Eli & Ben have.
And finally this year, was when it was all supposed to come together for Sam, the stars would align, make or break some said.
1. "He has the weapons" Referencing TA, Cook, Givens, & Quick. In theory, Sam has the best receiving options in his career. But a combo of drops, mental lapses (these guys are young), lack of creative playcalling, offensive balance, and blocking have affected Sam's ability to make more of what he has been given. Now I'm not letting Sam off free, some times he is in the wrong, but people can't simply gloss over what's holding the O back, and I'd argue if anyone should be blamed for holding back the O Sam would be one of the last guys I'd look towards. Has he really regressed this much from a solid 2012, or have the other 21 been less consistent with their play this year?
2. "This will be Pead's breakout year" Is what many said, including John Clayton. I never bought it. Would it have been a huge lift for the offense for Pead to emerge? Sure. But we'll never know. SJ is missed more than people would like to admit. And although he's currently on the shelf, you can't say the same would be true if he'd stayed. I understand us letting him go, but to say that we would be better off like many indicated is incredibly short sighted or just stubborn. Said it before and I'll say it again: STEVEN JACKSON IS AN ELITE PASS BLOCKING RB, and has been for 2-4 years. Just roll the tape of him vs Willis on Pettis' TD last year. Many wonder why WE DON'T THROW THE BALL DOWNFIELD as much this year. Has anyone thought about how many things go into a successful 40+ yard shot downfield. The OL needs to block for 3 sec+ often, and that includes TE & RB. Go back on coaches film or even the season highlights, and see how many major pass plays the Rams converted last year SJ was blocking in.
3. "The OLine has been upgraded" Jake Long is very good, no doubt. Barksdale (or Saffold) ARE upgrades from Barry Richardson. Wells is healthy. BUT Dahl is continuing his steep decline & Fish is running tryouts at LG during games still. Although he didn't have much power, I think Rob Turner is an overlooked key departure. At this point last year I think our OLine gave Sam more time to consistently step into his throws and go through his progressions. If the pocket wasn't always collapsing into him, you'd see less bat downs which are a product of DL getting their hands up, but also the OL being to close to the QB. You'd also see less checkdowns.
4. "The defense can be a top 10 unit. They led the league in 2012." This is a bigger deal IMO than Sam & the O, even though the O has been less than spectacular. How many takeaways did we have vs our only LEGIT opponents this year (ATL, DAL, SF)? How often did we get off the field on 3rd downs? IMO this is due to scheming, coaching adjustments, young personnel, and possibly some declining personnel. Finn seems to be declining for sure. Remember when people were pissed at Jenks' mistakes as a rookie? We'll Finn's have been worse this year. How about the lack of the 3 & out this year? This is one of the reasons the Rams start many drives inside the 20. And this has been the one area that Sam has seldom had help with closing out games. How many more comebacks would he have completed in his career or would have had the chance of starting? Remember Sam led STL to the lead against DET, SF, & SEA in 2012. They have often been the link that's failed to seal the deal.
Many will label me as a Bradford apologist for making a post like this. But I view it differently: I'm one of those fans who believes that we can't see Sam ever meet his full potential with the team he is currently surrounded by (Oline, skill positions, & D).
What interests and also intrigues me, is Sam has never had the benefit of having the consistency around him that QBs like Eli & Ben have enjoyed. For the better part of their careers they have had the Faneca's, Snee's, Pouncey's, and Diehl's of the world. How about Ward, Randel El, Wallace, Brown, Miller, Burress, Toomer, Smith (for a year), Nicks, Cruz. These guys have been consistently been surrounded from talent from day 1 of their careers! Lets not overlook the value of having a top 10 defense helping you on the other side! Wonder why Peyton Manning only won A super bowl in Indy? Was bounced out of the playoffs early many years? Lost to Brady many a time til 2006? It was defense, not his inability to score. Football is a TEAM game.
Sam has had a similar start to his career as Alex Smith, although I don't like to compare the two physically, purely on situation. A some young talent, with a mix of vets. Constant head coaching changes, not to mention other coaches.
I think Sam can reach the level of the Eli's & Big Ben's of the league, and even crawl into elite IF surrounded by the right team. The difference is, I think we have seen Ben & Eli max out, or nearly max their potential. This year is not necessarily a depletion in ability or skill, its a depletion of talent, execution, coaching, etc. Sam has never been given the tools or they haven't woked, so he never got to the point where Eli & Ben reached.
Anyways I could ramble on forever... forgive me. Just trying to get out all my thoughts while I can