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Indianapolis vs. Minnesota Prediction: Vikings Look to Clinch NFC North With Win over the Colts
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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Indianapolis vs. Minnesota: Vikings Look to Clinch NFC North With Win over the Colts
The Minnesota Vikings may be tied for the second-best record in the NFL, but they've been doubted all year. An embarrassing 34-23 loss to the Lions last week won't help, as it actually dropped their point differential to negative (-1).The good news: Minnesota (10-3) will have a chance to redeem itself in a rare Saturday afternoon game when it hosts the reeling Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1), losers of three straight under interim head coach Jeff Saturday.
Beat the Colts won't exactly be a signature win. But any win will be monumental at this point, with the 49ers breathing down the Vikings' necks for the NFC's No. 2 seed.
Indianapolis is coming off a bye, which has given the team an extra week to prepare — and stew on a 54-19 loss to the Cowboys in Week 13. They became just the third NFL team to give up 33 points in a single quarter when Dallas ran away with it in the fourth.
That the Vikings are only favored by four points in this game despite having six more wins says a lot about how NFL fans perceive this team. Can Minnesota put itself back in the discussion as a playoff heavyweight? Or will it drop another disappointing game to a team with a losing record?
Indianapolis (4-8-1) at Minnesota (10-3)
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 17 at 1 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Vikings -4
Tickets: As low as $77 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Minnesota passing game: Unstoppable force vs. immovable object
Perhaps unstoppable force is a bit strong, especially considering the Vikings were held under 160 passing yards in two of their last four games. But the Vikings do rank eighth in passing offense and will make for a fascinating matchup against a Colts' defense that's ranked third against the pass. Indianapolis has held seven of its last nine opponents under 175 passing yards.
Justin Jefferson has emerged as perhaps the best receiver in the league, and he's only 23. He leads the NFL with 1,500 receiving yards — 465 off Calvin Johnson's single-season record — and is one behind Tyreek Hill at 99 receptions. However, this could be his biggest challenge yet this season.
The Colts have only allowed two opponents to reach even 90 yards (Davante Adams, 126; Terry McLaurin, 113), and no one has reached double-digit receptions. Stephon Gilmore has re-emerged as one of the best corners in the league and may spend much of the game on Jefferson. Among 263 qualified defenders, he has the 15th-lowest passer rating allowed (63.4) and 37th-lowest completion rate allowed (55.6 percent).
If Indianapolis is able to slow Jefferson down, look for Kirk Cousins to check the ball down more. Dalvin Cook could become more active in the passing game, since the Colts have given up the seventh-most receptions to running backs this season (74), and slot corner Kenny Moore II's continued absence would be good news for K.J. Osborn and T.J. Hockenson.
2. Indianapolis passing game: Stoppable force vs. moveable object
The other passing attack will be fascinating to watch — it could get ugly in either direction. The Vikings have given up more than 300 passing yards in each of the last five games, while Matt Ryan is averaging just 216.8 in his four games since reclaiming the starting job under Jeff Saturday.
At 37, Ryan may be playing for his job at this point. Rumors are swirling about a potential retirement, and this is one of the best chances he'll have left to show off. Teams have feasted on the Vikings' last-ranked defense by picking up yards after the completion — the 1,763 they've allowed is second only to Arizona. And given Ryan's minuscule average intended air yards per attempt (5.9, last in the NFL), quick passes in space may well be a recipe for success.
Getting All-Pro safety Harrison Smith back will be a huge boon to the Vikings. But Minnesota needs to show life not only for this game but for the near future. If it can't put up a decent performance against a passing attack that ranks 29th in net yards per attempt (5.4), what hope will it have in the playoffs when it faces actually good passing attacks?
3. Will turnover luck continue?
These teams are quite opposite in many ways — bizarrely, except having weak rushing numbers despite having Pro Bowl running backs — including in the turnover department.
The Vikings have such a strong record despite being outscored because of success (or luck) in one-score games. But they've only kept their point differential to minus-one despite being outgained by 61.7 yards per game because of turnovers. The Vikings are tied for eighth with 20 takeaways and tied for six with just 14 giveaways. They've only lost the turnover battle four times this season, and, you guessed it, they have a 1-3 record in those games.
Indianapolis has been far more generous in that department. The Colts' 26 turnovers are four more than any other team, and only two teams have fewer than their 12 takeaways. The Colts appear outmatched in most departments in this game, but if they can steal a possession or two from the Vikings, that could be enough to turn the tide.
Final Analysis
The Vikings certainly aren't as good as their record would indicate. But the Colts are quite a weak opponent — second-worst in the league, according to DVOA. Minnesota should be good enough to win solidly at home and prepare for the home stretch with an extra day of rest. But if the Vikings have much trouble against this putrid offense, it spells disaster even if they limp into the playoffs.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Colts 19
