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- Jul 31, 2010
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- max
This is my detailed approach at breaking down our draft position for 2014. I think I've covered all the bases as outlined below. I start with the simplest ones and end with the most complex, but it all boils down nicely to no worse than #3 overall, most likely #2, with an outside shot at #1.
If the Skins lose we draft #2, unless Houston beats Tenn, then we draft #1.
If the Skins win we can either end up at #2 or #3. If the Jags win also, then we get #2 anyway. But if the Jags lose, then it gets a bit tricky. And I used a spreadsheet to break it all down as follows...
After running through all the possibilities, and understanding that the only team that can take the #2 overall spot from us is the Jags, I have found that only 4 games can impact our draft position.
The spreadsheet below shows a likely worse case scenario with the Jags getting #2 and us getting #3 because of the SOS. That is, the Jags have SOS opponents wins of 129, the Skins have 130. This would result if the week 17 games turned out as I listed them. As stated, only 4 games matter. Those are Bill-Pats, Browns-Steelers, Cards-Niners, and Falcons-Panthers. And I don't think there is much chance for the Pats and Panthers to lose, so what we need is for the Browns and Cards to win.
In summary, if the Skins win and the Jags win, then we get #2. If the Skins win and the Jags lose, then we need both the Browns and Cards to win to lock up #2 overall. If only one of them wins, then we flip a coin with the Jags. If they both lose, then we get #3.
If the Skins lose we draft #2, unless Houston beats Tenn, then we draft #1.
If the Skins win we can either end up at #2 or #3. If the Jags win also, then we get #2 anyway. But if the Jags lose, then it gets a bit tricky. And I used a spreadsheet to break it all down as follows...
After running through all the possibilities, and understanding that the only team that can take the #2 overall spot from us is the Jags, I have found that only 4 games can impact our draft position.
The spreadsheet below shows a likely worse case scenario with the Jags getting #2 and us getting #3 because of the SOS. That is, the Jags have SOS opponents wins of 129, the Skins have 130. This would result if the week 17 games turned out as I listed them. As stated, only 4 games matter. Those are Bill-Pats, Browns-Steelers, Cards-Niners, and Falcons-Panthers. And I don't think there is much chance for the Pats and Panthers to lose, so what we need is for the Browns and Cards to win.
In summary, if the Skins win and the Jags win, then we get #2. If the Skins win and the Jags lose, then we need both the Browns and Cards to win to lock up #2 overall. If only one of them wins, then we flip a coin with the Jags. If they both lose, then we get #3.