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Saturday January 14, 2023
AFC Wild Card Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Meet for a Second Time This Season
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars AFC Wild Card game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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AFC Wild Card Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Meet for a Second Time This Season
The opening day of the NFL playoffs will wrap up with a tasty wild-card matchup between two up-and-coming high-octane quarterbacks and two organizations that have been desperate to get back to the postseason. The Los Angeles Chargers spent the last 350-some-odd days reliving that last-second field goal in overtime at Las Vegas last January which kept them out of the playoffs. That pain was used as motivation to improve to a 10-7 mark this season and find themselves in the postseason.The Jacksonville Jaguars, meanwhile, have had a worst-to-first type of turnaround, going from the league's worst record two years running to an AFC South-best 9-8 mark. In doing so, the Jags have also become just the third team since 1970 to make the playoffs one year after having the worst record in the league.
The Chargers will be making their first playoff appearance since 2018 thanks to a 5-2 run they have been on since Thanksgiving weekend, including a four-game stretch of wins that helped lock down their postseason spot. And talk about a bunch of cardiac kids, the Chargers have earned seven of their 10 wins by a single score, and five of their seven losses have come in similar fashion. In other words, when the Chargers cinch up their chin straps, buckle your seat belts people.
The Jags haven't been in the playoffs since 2017 and are certainly on a roll. After limping out to a 2-6 start, they have turned their season around, winning five straight games down the stretch to secure the top spot in the AFC South division. This current win streak is the first five-game win streak for Jacksonville since 2005.
The last time these two teams faced off, it was ugly. Like a wart on a witch's butt kind of ugly. Back in Week 3 of the young season, the Jags dismantled the Chargers by a 38-10 count, although both teams will be much healthier for the rematch.
AFC Wild Card: Los Angeles (10-7) at Jacksonville (9-8)
Kickoff: Saturday, Jan. 14 at 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Chargers -1.5
Tickets: As low as $133 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Expect a much different Justin Herbert
In that fateful Game 3 blowout, Charger quarterback Justin Herbert was dealing with a painful rib injury and just wasn't his normal self, going 25-of-45 for 295 yards. His 55.6 percent completion percentage and 30.1 QBR were the lowest of any game this season. On top of that, his favorite wideout Keenan Allen was not available for that game either. So this time expect Allen to get plenty of targets, along with his cohorts Josh Palmer and Austin Ekeler, who are all healthy this time around. No. 2 wideout Mike Williams suffered a back injury in Week 18 when head coach Brandon Staley opted not to rest his starters and wasn't practicing as of Thursday.
The good news for the Chargers is that Herbert ranks third in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, averaging 278.7 yards passing per game. And on the opposite side of things, the Jaguars' passing defense ranks 28th, giving up 238.5 yards per game. They are particularly vulnerable to tight ends, so look for Gerald Everett to get his targets, considering he has 58 catches for 555 yards and four TDs this season.
2. Whoever has the better O-line play will win
The Chargers' O-line is a middle-of-the-road unit, allowing 39 sacks this season. But it's their 31 percent pressure rate that they allow, which jumps out. So if the Jaguars can keep their 33 percent pressure rate (good for third in the league), they could make this a hellish game for Herbert and Co. As an example, the Jaguars defenders got 13 hits and four sacks on Tennessee's Joshua Dobbs in their week 18 win.
Meanwhile, Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa — when healthy and playing together — form one of the best one-two sack masters in the league. The good news is that it looks like they'll both be ready for this one, even if Bosa is still being brought up to speed from that groin injury. Trevor Lawrence has proven he can be hot and cold at any given time. If he is pressured enough, it could also be a bad day for his long locks as well.
3. Don't look for the Chargers' defense to be a sieve again
Last Sunday's 31-28 loss to Denver can be looked at as an aberration. Most assuredly, they had been playing better D before that meaningless loss. As mentioned above, Bosa is healing up. He played just 23 snaps against Denver in their ramp-up to the full-time role he should be ready for this weekend. On top of that, cornerback Bryce Callahan will return to his post and will help bolster what is already a very formidable pass defense.
But you can't write a Chargers game preview without mentioning that (still) porous run defense. The Bolts allow 145.8 yards a game and 5.4 yards per carry on the ground, which ranks 28th in the league. Jacksonville's Travis Etiernne Jr. has 1,125 yards on 5.1 yards per carry this season and should be licking his chops for this one. The key will be forcing the Jags to throw, which means it could be vital for the Chargers to jump out to an early lead this week.
Final Analysis
Two things to wrap this up. First, welcome to the one Wild Card Round game that actually has both starting quarterbacks not only surviving the whole season but also playing this weekend. Both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert stand 6-foot-6, have cannon-type arms, alluring long hair, and are younger than Stetson Bennett. So naturally, you would think this game could be a track meet-type shootout.
Ah, but here's the second point: both defenses have played surprisingly well of late. Take away that meaningless game against the Broncos and you'll see that the Chargers had allowed just 44 points in their previous four games before that and rank as the eighth-best defense in the NFL over the last five games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are seventh in the AFC in defense and have given up just 22 points in their last three games. So don't expect this to be a game where the first team to score 50 will win.
Either way, as the old adage goes, it is hard to beat a good team twice. And I see a healthier Chargers team getting its revenge on Saturday.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Jaguars 17
