Beware of Draft Cliches: "Reach" and "Steal"

[AvengerRam]

On Monday, May 1, you'll be able to find lots of draft report cards. The "experts" will give their view on how teams did, and how their draft class will perform, assigning a letter grade.

These should, of course, be taken with a very large grain of salt.

Within these report cards, we'll often see two terms of art: "reach" and "steal."

A "reach," of course, is a selection of a player that the "experts" thought would go much later in the draft. Even if the player ultimately becomes a Pro Bowl type, those same "experts" will insist that the selection was a "reach" because the player could have been selected later in the draft.

Don't buy into that. We don't know what any team's draft board actually looks like. If your team takes a player in Round 3, and the "experts" say "he could have been taken on Day 3 of the draft," they're just guessing. There could have been 5 other teams prepared to take that player in Round 3 (and your team may have known that - people talk).

Same thing goes for "steal." The "experts" will praise a team for landing a "Day 1 prospect" on day 2. Of course, sometimes, the reason the player dropped is significant, and known to teams (again, perhaps unknown to the "experts").

So how should we react to the draft if the "experts" aren't really experts, and their verbiage is fraught with cliches?

I'd say the answer is (1) decide whether you trust our teams' player evaluators to make good decisions, and (2) go with your gut.

That, and never listen to Skip Bayless.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Medicals... there's always like 1-3 prospects every year that "fall" numerous rounds and it's usually cause there's medical info the teams had that the media had no clue about.

 

[thirteen28]

Great post, agree 100%.

You never know whether a guy was a reach or a steal until you see what they will do on the field. Nobody called AD or Kupp steals when they were taken, but both have massively outplayed their eventual draft positions. And GRob, taken in the same draft and before AD, was a massive bust. Nobody called AD or Kupp steals at the time, nor did they call GRob a reach. And we know now those descriptions apply perfectly.

 

[AvengerRam]

Great post, agree 100%.

You never know whether a guy was a reach or a steal until you see what they will do on the field. Nobody called AD or Kupp steals when they were taken, but both have massively outplayed their eventual draft positions. And GRob, taken in the same draft and before AD, was a massive bust. Nobody called AD or Kupp steals at the time, nor did they call GRob a reach. And we know now those descriptions apply perfectly.

Yeah... for a good laugh, look up and read Aaron Donald's pre-draft evaluations. You'll find some that, based upon how it played out, were written by "experts" who are probably selling shoes at a mall somewhere today.

 

[oldnotdead]

The vast majority of players "fall". There are many times the number of 1st round rated talents than the 32 picks. This is why value can be found on the second day, particularly in the second round. This is why the majority of teams like the Rams take a BPA at position of need approach. They are filling out their roster not building a roster. If you are starting from scratch with the roster then fine go BPA regardless of position. Who cares if you end up with 4 QBs and 5 edges right?

The Rams really rely upon analytics as a big part of their evaluations. They use their scout's reports and then see if the analytics support those observations. They use analytics as well when signing FA players. The Ram's success in terms of team record speaks for itself. Last year was an aberration due to unprecedented injuries. So 2019 is the only real hiccup but they came within a missed makeable FG of making the playoffs.

After watching the Chargers flail for decades in their drafts, the Rams actually draft well. The Chargers finally began to use scouting services in their evaluations and so they draft better now but has it led to success? Not exactly. After Herbert's 5th year option will they keep him? I think there is a very real possibility he will be on the market in 2025. What I'm saying is that ownership has a very real impact on how most franchises are run. Just look as far as Bidwell in AZ and the Haslams in Cleveland. They can hamstring any FO by dictating priorities.

 

[El Chapo Jr]

The reason the draft is such a crap shoot is because you're paying really young men a whole lot of money and they aren't used to that. Some of these young guys definitely lose that work ethic because they think they made it. Doesn't mean they won't try to play when the time comes, just means they're not going to put in the work needed to excel in the NFL. Also, it's hard to gauge how much these guys can handle mentally because becoming a student of the game makes a big difference at this level when everyone in the NFL are considered great athletes.

 

[Angry Ram]

Mike Mayok hates you.

 

[thirteen28]

Yeah... for a good laugh, look up and read Aaron Donald's pre-draft evaluations. You'll find some that, based upon how it played out, were written by "experts" who are probably selling shoes at a mall somewhere today.

And yet, they'll never be as cool as this guy:

 

[Oregonram]

Too many "experts" live in the now and get away with outlandish predictions about a "steal" or a "reach" from previous drafts. I think it would be fun to pull a few 2-5 round draft picks and see what these "experts" were saying about the pick relative to how they actually panned out. It would be interesting to see if any of the pundits were more right on their calls than some of the others. I wish I had the time, but alas I don't.

 

[Oregonram]

Ok, just looked up the NFL Draft Prospect Board for AD...his Ranking number was 5.90...which says that he would be an average back-up or special teamer....hahahahahahahahahaha,,,wow way too fun ......a good lesson for all of us that we shouldn't get too tweaked when we pick our guy...he may end up being much much better than the "experts" tell us....

 

[Rams43]

Every single year there has been a proven disconnect between mocks by pundits, the so-called experts, and the reality of the actual draft order.

Moreover, 3 years later the results display how wildly wrong the pundits were. No exceptions.

Not really blaming the pundits, either, it’s simply the nature of the beast. Might as well try to predict the weather at a certain place on a certain date 3 months into the future. Just too many variables.

But still the mocks are a lot of fun and definitely stimulate conversations.

 

[JYB]

On Monday, May 1, you'll be able to find lots of draft report cards. The "experts" will give their view on how teams did, and how their draft class will perform, assigning a letter grade.

These should, of course, be taken with a very large grain of salt.

Within these report cards, we'll often see two terms of art: "reach" and "steal."

A "reach," of course, is a selection of a player that the "experts" thought would go much later in the draft. Even if the player ultimately becomes a Pro Bowl type, those same "experts" will insist that the selection was a "reach" because the player could have been selected later in the draft.

Don't buy into that. We don't know what any team's draft board actually looks like. If your team takes a player in Round 3, and the "experts" say "he could have been taken on Day 3 of the draft," they're just guessing. There could have been 5 other teams prepared to take that player in Round 3 (and your team may have known that - people talk).

Same thing goes for "steal." The "experts" will praise a team for landing a "Day 1 prospect" on day 2. Of course, sometimes, the reason the player dropped is significant, and known to teams (again, perhaps unknown to the "experts").

So how should we react to the draft if the "experts" aren't really experts, and their verbiage is fraught with cliches?

I'd say the answer is (1) decide whether you trust our teams' player evaluators to make good decisions, and (2) go with your gut.

That, and never listen to Skip Bayless.

Yeah, but... Tutu was a reach.

 

[PARAM]

A "reach," of course, is a selection of a player that the "experts" thought would go much later in the draft. Even if the player ultimately becomes a Pro Bowl type, those same "experts" will insist that the selection was a "reach" because the player could have been selected later in the draft.

Don't buy into that. We don't know what any team's draft board actually looks like. If your team takes a player in Round 3, and the "experts" say "he could have been taken on Day 3 of the draft," they're just guessing. There could have been 5 other teams prepared to take that player in Round 3 (and your team may have known that - people talk).

Same thing goes for "steal." The "experts" will praise a team for landing a "Day 1 prospect" on day 2. Of course, sometimes, the reason the player dropped is significant, and known to teams (again, perhaps unknown to the "experts").

So how should we react to the draft if the "experts" aren't really experts, and their verbiage is fraught with cliches?

Report Cards should.be called,.mid semester evaluations.

And you forgot one, "oh he is really shooting up the board!". Who's board? Your board? McVays board? Kipers? The guy was rated a mid second round pick, the pundits now have him mid first (after the combine) and he goes in the first third to mid second anyway!!

In the season of misinformation how can any of these pundits believe what they hear from NFL personnel men? They are ripe to be used like a Trojan horse....or just a trojan.

 

[Neil039]

Mike Mayok hates you.

Mike Mayock hates himself. He graded out as a CFL waterboy.