The Cowboys can't win a road playoff game. The 2022 Chiefs are just as explosive as the 2021 team. Time to debunk.
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Debunking myths: Why you're wrong about all 14 NFL playoff teams
A full regular season's worth of surprises, inevitabilities, overreactions and underreactions has led us to where we are -- the start of a 14-team NFL postseason. The hay is in the barn on the league's playoff teams. At this point, we know who and what all of these teams are.
Or do we?
As has become our tradition here the past couple of years, we have decided to test that theory. We've come up with one thing you think you know about each playoff team, and we're going to tell you why you shouldn't be so sure about it. It's the 2022-23 edition of Playoff Mythbusters, and we're here to make you a better-educated (even if that means a little grumpier about your team's chances) NFL fan. Hey, this time of year, the more prepared you are, the better. Right?
1. Kansas City Chiefs (bye)
The myth: The Chiefs' offense is just as explosive without Tyreek Hill.
After the Chiefs traded away the dynamic Hill in the offseason, there were justifiable questions about whether they could maintain the level of offensive production to which they've become accustomed during the Patrick Mahomes era. The Chiefs have answered these questions rather convincingly, as they had the best offense in the NFL this season, averaging a league-leading 413.6 yards and 29.2 points per game en route to a seventh straight AFC West title and the best record in the league.
Why it's wrong: It's no surprise that Mahomes and Andy Reid found a way to be as effective on offense post-Hill, but the passing game is definitely not as explosive as it used to be. Entering this season, Mahomes' average passing touchdown during his career had gone 19.5 yards. This season, that average was down to 12.2, the lowest such figure of his career. In each season from 2018 to '21, Mahomes threw at least 11 touchdowns from outside the red zone. His 56 touchdowns from outside the red zone over that four-year span were nine more than the next-highest total (Tom Brady, 47), and his TD-to-interception ratio on throws outside the red zone was 1.93. This season from outside the red zone he threw just seven touchdowns, a figure that ranked eighth in the league, and nine interceptions, for a TD/INT ratio of 0.78. The Chiefs still score plenty of points (more than anyone else, actually!), but one of the things that used to be true about them was that they could score from anywhere on the field. This season, that has not been the case.
2. Buffalo Bills (vs. MIA)
The myth: The Bills' pass rush is in trouble without Von Miller.
The Bills went out in the offseason and signed Miller in free agency because they felt they needed a "finisher" in the pass rush. They believed they'd been knocked out of the past two postseasons at least in part because of their inability to sack Patrick Mahomes in big, end-of-game situations. And when they went into Kansas City earlier this season and Miller helped seal the game in the fourth quarter, it looked as if the plan was going to work. But then Miller tore his ACL in a Week 12 victory over Detroit, ending his season and putting the plan in jeopardy.
Why it's wrong: From Weeks 13 to 17, the Bills pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33.8% of dropbacks, which ranked eighth in the NFL and was better than what they were doing when Miller was healthy. From Weeks 1 to 12, Buffalo's pressure rate was 29.2%, which ranked 17th in the league. The Bills also improved their pass rush win rate from 43.8% to 44.8% since Miller's injury. They would surely tell you they'd rather have Miller in there, and we'll see how things go when and if they have to beat their nemesis Mahomes in a playoff game. But the stats tell us Buffalo's pass rush is no worse -- and may even be a little better -- than it was before Miller got hurt.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. BAL)
The myth: The Bengals have fixed their offensive line.
After quarterback Joe Burrow was sacked 51 times in 16 regular-season games last season, the Bengals made their offensive line a priority in the offseason. They signed former Patriot Ted Karras to play center, former Buccaneer Alex Cappa to play guard and former Cowboy La'el Collins to play right tackle. Burrow has said multiple times this season that he believes the three guys on the interior are playing as well as anyone in the league. Until Collins got injured in Week 16, the 895 snaps the Bengals' five starting linemen had played together were the most of any such group in the league other than Pittsburgh's. Burrow had been sacked 39 times in his first 15 games of the season.
Why it's wrong: While it's true that 39 still isn't a great number, it is a drastic improvement. Only five quarterbacks had taken more sacks than Burrow this season. He actually got hit more per game than he did in 2021, and the Bengals' 50.1% pass block win rate this season was the third-worst in the league, ahead of only Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Burrow is actually the one who has improved here. Last season when facing pressure, he ranked 20th in the league with a 16.7 QBR, 18th in the league in touchdown/interception radio at 1.00 and fifth in the league in completion percentage (52.3). This season in those same categories when under pressure, Burrow ranked seventh (41.2), third (3.00) and second (55.0), respectively.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. LAC)
The myth: The Jaguars have a high-powered, playoff-caliber offense.
If you played fantasy football this year, you likely either benefited from or were hurt by guys such as Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram and Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars made massive strides on offense in Lawrence's second season (his first under coach Doug Pederson), and their current five-game win streak got going with a 36-22 victory in Tennessee and a 40-34 victory over the Cowboys, so it's clear they're capable of hanging big numbers on the scoreboard.
Why it's wrong: The Jaguars' offense is inconsistent and has a lot of potentially harmful defects now that it will see only playoff teams from this point on. Lawrence's QBR of 54.7 ranked as just the 15th best in the league, and he turned the ball over 17 times. Of those 17, only eight are interceptions, so it's not as if he's making irresponsible decisions when he throws the ball. He has lost a league-leading nine fumbles and has to iron that out if he's going to avoid costing his team in a big postseason spot. We also saw him miss a couple of easy touchdown throws Saturday night in a game that ultimately got decided on an interception-return TD by his defense.
Perhaps more alarming, the Jags rushed for just 19 yards on 14 carries in the Saturday game. Tennessee's run defense was very tough this season, but Etienne is averaging only 57.1 rushing yards per game and has scored only one touchdown since the Jaguars' Week 11 bye.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (at JAX)
The myth: Brandon Staley always goes for it on fourth down.
In 2021, Staley's first season as an NFL head coach, the Chargers went for it on 31.5% of their fourth downs. That figure led the NFL and subjected Staley to a great deal of criticism and second-guessing, especially after some fourth-down decisions in a season-ending loss to the Raiders that helped knock the Chargers out of a playoff spot. The thing was, it was kind of working, as the 2021 Chargers' 64.7% success rate on fourth down was the fourth-best in the league.
Why it's wrong: This season, the Chargers went for it on just 21.8% of fourth downs. That's still fairly aggressive -- it ranked seventh in the league. But it was down significantly from Staley's first season, suggesting that his ultra-aggressive reputation may be getting at least a little outdated. Interestingly, the Chargers, who dealt with injuries to their quarterback and wide receivers all season, are also converting far fewer fourth downs. Their 51.7% conversion percentage ranked 16th.
6. Baltimore Ravens (at CIN)
The myth: The Ravens are no longer an elite defensive team.
When we think of the great postseason Baltimore teams, what do we think of? Other than Joe Flacco, I mean. We think about defense. Elite, historically smothering defense. Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, guys like that. This season's Ravens ranked 10th in total defense, allowing 324.3 yards per game. They ranked even worse in pass defense, allowing 232.2 yards per game through the air. Only seven teams allowed more. They were 10th in the league in takeaways, sixth in sacks... a good defense, to be sure. But these aren't elite level defensive stats.
Why it's wrong: Because they traded for Roquan Smith at the deadline, and everything has changed since then. Starting in Week 9, which was Smith's first game with the team after coming over from Chicago, Baltimore's defense has allowed just 14.67 points per game, second-best in the league behind San Francisco. The Ravens allowed 288.8 yards per game, fourth-best. They were 11th-best in pass yards allowed per game during that span, at 201.4. They were third in defensive efficiency, fourth in defensive EPA, sixth in sacks per opponent's dropback. Smith appears to have been the difference-maker they expected him to be when they acquired him. And if Lamar Jackson is back for the playoffs and the offense can score more than the 12.5 points per game it has averaged since he got hurt, the defense could be a major factor in any potential run the team makes.
7. Miami Dolphins (at BUF)
The myth: The Dolphins will be a formidable playoff team if they get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back.
Miami lost its Week 16 game to Green Bay when Tua very oddly threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter. He was entered into concussion protocol the next day, which some believe helps explain why that game went south so quickly, and the Dolphins lost to the Patriots the next week with Teddy Bridgewater starting. On Sunday, rookie Skylar Thompson made his second career start in place of an injured Bridgewater, and the Dolphins won an ugly 11-6 game they needed to win to qualify for the postseason. There is no way to forecast Tua's chances of playing this week or in any other potential future playoff game this season, because he's recovering from what is at least his second concussion of the season, and progression through the league's protocol is specific to each individual. But the Dolphins were 8-4 this season in games Tua both started and finished, and they were 1-4 in games he didn't.
Why it's wrong: Because Tua doesn't play defense. And honestly, neither do the Dolphins. For the season, the Dolphins ranked 24th in points allowed per game, 24th in defensive efficiency and 21st in defensive EPA. And it didn't matter much who was playing quarterback. Miami ranked in the bottom half of the league in all three of those categories every month of this season except October, when it was 15th in defensive efficiency, and November, when its three opponents were the Bears, Browns and Texans -- three bottom-half offenses.
Miami's worst month of the year on defense was December, when it ranked 29th in opponents' points per game, 28th in defensive efficiency and 25th in defensive expected points added (EPA). So while the Dolphins held a checked-out Jets team to six points in their must-win finale Sunday, they aren't exactly coming in hot. Miami's only wins this season against teams in the playoff field came in Weeks 2 and 3 against Baltimore and Buffalo. It's 0-5 since then against teams that made the playoffs.
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles (bye)
The myth: The Eagles' defense was exposed while Jalen Hurts was out.
Philly lost both of the games Hurts missed, in Weeks 16 and 17, because of his shoulder injury, giving up a combined 60 points and 732 yards. Not a great sign for a team with Super Bowl aspirations as it makes its way toward the postseason. Not to go all Micah Parsons on you here, but one of the things that was supposed to be true about this Eagles team was that it has a super-strong roster without any major holes around its emerging young quarterback, and that the defense would be good enough to hold up and deliver even with Gardner Minshew at QB.
Why it's wrong: While the top-line numbers look bad, the Eagles' defense wasn't that awful in the games against the Cowboys and the Saints. The Philly defense allowed four touchdowns to Dallas and one to New Orleans (which also scored one on defense in that game). Of the Cowboys' four touchdowns, two came on drives that were less than 50 yards long, off of Eagles turnovers. A Philadelphia team that turned the ball over just 13 times in its first 14 games turned it over five times in the two games Hurts missed, including four times against the Cowboys.
Assuming the turnovers have returned to normal with their starting quarterback healthy -- Philly turned it over just once on Sunday against the Giants -- the Eagles should be fine. That defense is quite fearsome. Through Week 17, Philly was on a streak of five straight games with six or more sacks, which was the longest such streak of all time. Of the league-leading 70 sacks the Eagles had through Week 17, they got 53 with a four-man rush. That's 15 more sacks with a four-man rush than any other team has had since such stats have been tracked.
2. San Francisco 49ers (vs. SEA)
The myth: Kyle Shanahan's offense can put points on the board no matter who the quarterback is.
Why it's wrong: Historically, Shanahan's offenses have not been excellent in the postseason. In Shanahan's six career playoff games as a head coach, his offenses have averaged a modest 21.7 points per game, with his quarterbacks accounting for a total of four touchdown passes and six interceptions.
Shanahan has won playoff games with defense. His defense has forced at least one turnover in each of his six playoff games and allowed points on just 31% of opponents' drives. The good news for the 49ers is, shaky performances against the Chiefs and Raiders notwithstanding, their defense has looked all season like one that could carry the team to postseason success. No matter who the quarterback is.
3. Minnesota Vikings (vs. NYG)
The myth: Kirk Cousins should be talked about more as an MVP candidate.
Cousins ranked among the league leaders in passing yards and passing touchdowns, having a career-best season in many categories for a team that went 13-4. He has been clutch. This Vikings team has built its success on its record in close games, and Cousins' 13 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime tied for the league lead with Tom Brady. Successful starting quarterbacks on first-place teams are always in the MVP conversation, so why shouldn't Cousins be this year?
Why it's wrong: He has probably not even been the most valuable offensive player on his own team. That honor goes to wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has been Cousins' go-to guy in every situation, especially the clutch ones. Cousins' QBR of 49.8 ranked 23rd in the league, right ahead of Ryan Tannehill and right behind Matthew Stafford. His average yards per attempt was a pedestrian 7.07, which ranked 15th. But when he targeted literally anyone other than Jefferson, that average dropped to 6.1 -- a figure that, on its own, would have ranked second-to-last in the league, ahead of only Kyler Murray.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. DAL)
The myth: The Tom Brady-to-Mike Evans connection is as good and reliable as ever.
It has been a frustrating season for the Bucs' offense and for Evans in particular, as his inability to consistently connect with Brady has been a big story for Bucs fans and fantasy football players alike. But Evans caught 10 passes for 207 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 17 Buccaneers victory over Carolina that clinched the AFC South, leading some to believe everything that came before was the anomaly and that the Brady/Evans connection was humming as they headed into the playoffs.
Why it's wrong: Small sample size is why! Over Brady's first two seasons in Tampa, he had 26 touchdown passes and five interceptions when targeting Evans. This season, even after that monster Week 17, he had six touchdown passes and seven interceptions when targeting Evans. The issue in Tampa Bay this season has revolved around the offensive line and insufficient protection, which has led the sack-averse Brady to rely more on short completions to running backs and Chris Godwin. Hard to believe that problem is fixed after just one game against the sub-.500 Panthers.
5. Dallas Cowboys (at TB)
The myth: The Cowboys won't be able to win on the road in the playoffs.
The Cowboys have lost eight road postseason games in a row, the second-longest active streak in the league behind the Lions' 11. The streak dates back 30 years. The last quarterback they beat in a road playoff game was Steve Young of the San Francisco 49ers. Dak Prescott lost his only road playoff game as the Cowboys' starter to the Rams four years ago, though he played fine in that game and they lost it mainly because they gave up a combined 238 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Rams RBs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. This season's Cowboys were 8-1 at home and just 4-4 on the road.
Why it's wrong: Most of the players on the Cowboys weren't even born the last time the team won a road playoff game, which means they don't care about a streak that long and they really haven't been involved in it. On average this season, at home they scored about 30 points per game and allowed 20, but on the road they still outscored opponents by around 27-20. In fact, the only statistical category in which they were much better at home this year is opponent turnovers. There's no reason, if the Cowboys are at full strength, being at home should make a major difference for them from playing on the road. And they lost their only playoff game a year ago, and they were at home for that one, so a home playoff game against, say, San Francisco might even have dredged up bad memories.
6. New York Giants (at MIN)
The myth: Saquon Barkley is all the Giants have on offense.
Barkley rushed for a career-high 1,312 yards in his bounce-back season. He had 57 catches for an additional 338 yards, tying for the team lead in receptions and finishing fourth in receiving yards for a team that has been shredded at the wide receiver position. Kenny Golladay, the 2021 free agent signing, has been a total nonfactor. 2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney got traded to Kansas City. 2022 second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson is out for the season with an injury, as is Sterling Shepard. The Giants ranked eighth in the league in rushing attempts and 25th in passing attempts, a clear sign that they know where their offensive bread is buttered.
Why it's wrong: It underrates just how good the Daniel Jones-Darius Slayton connection has been. When targeting Slayton this season, Jones averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt. That was the fifth-best such mark in the league -- even better than Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson. The only quarterback-receiver tandems averaging more yards per attempt than Jones and Slayton were some pretty good ones: Tua Tagovailoa-Jaylen Waddle at 12.38, Jalen Hurts-Dallas Goedert at 10.46, Tagovailoa-Tyreek Hill at 10.39 and Hurts-A.J. Brown at 10.35. The Giants are surely a run-first team, and for good reason, but don't sleep on Slayton as a dangerous weapon in their passing game.
7. Seattle Seahawks (at SF)
The myth: The Seahawks enter the playoffs with one of the league's top pass rushes.
Seattle ranked seventh in the league (and fifth among playoff teams) with 45 sacks, and it ranked eighth in the league (and fourth among playoff teams) in sacks per opponent dropback. When the Seahawks get to the quarterback, they bring him down, and that's the kind of thing that sounds as if it could make a difference in the postseason.
Why it's wrong: Because they don't get to the quarterback very often. This may be a case in which sack numbers don't tell the whole story about a pass rush. Seattle's pass rush win rate is 33.5%, which ranked 28th in the NFL this season. Only the Patriots, Chargers, Colts and Saints ranked behind the Seahawks. They pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 28.9% of dropbacks, which ranked 21st in the league. A reason for the high sack numbers may be that Seahawks' opposing quarterbacks averaged 2.99 seconds before throwing the ball, the highest such figure in the league. It feels like if you can get the ball out quickly you can avoid having to deal with Seattle's pressure.
